Haite Bio (300683) started from murine nerve growth factor, with the national first-class new drug Jinlujie - murine nerve growth factor for injection as the leading product, through epitaxial development, into vitro diagnosis, CRO, tumor, CDMO and other fields. Murine nerve growth factor toxic side effects are small, clinical multidisciplinary application is widely used, is one of the main varieties of nerve injury repair drugs in the market, the domestic market presents an oligopoly situation, only four products in production: Shu Tai Shen threotide sheng (2006), unnamed pharmaceutical En Jingfu (2003), Haite Bio's Jin Lujie (2003) and Li Kang Le of Lizhu Group (2010). Oligopoly pharmaceutical products, in 13 to 16 years the market growth rate of up to 26.5%, is simply a profiteering business; unfortunately, in 17 years of the national medical insurance policy mutation, from 2018, due to the industry policy and medical insurance control fees and other factors, the entire market size gradually shrunk.
By looking back at the revenue data of Haite Bio Jinlujie from 17 years, it can be found that the company's products are consistent with the trend of the entire market, and there has been a cliff-like decline. Although this year's revenue has repaired somewhat compared to last year, and most investment evaluations also believe that the product has passed the main stage of policy impact and entered a period of hard-needed development in the future, I am still worried about the future development of the product. So after considering the historical operating data, I give this part a valuation: annual revenue of 170 million × net profit margin of 20% under the best market conditions in history× 10 times the market sustainable valuation = 340 million
7 points rely on hard work, 3 points rely on fate, although the weighted products are greatly damaged by the mutation of industry policies, but in the year of the great change, Haite Bio just realized the IPO, with a huge cash flow in hand. The boss of the company also understands the pharmaceutical industry, and immediately uses the cash flow in his hand to seek transformation, and from this point of view, he must give the company's decision-making level an excellent score. In the process of seeking transformation, first acquired Haitai Biologics, the layout of in vitro diagnostic reagents, this industry is also a high-growth and high-profit pharmaceutical industry, before I specifically studied the new industry of the IDV industry (the recent valuation just returned to the reasonable value I gave back then); but in the context of last year's epidemic, Haitai has not been able to achieve rapid development, and I think the growth value is also limited in the future. After the acquisition of the IDV enterprise, the company raised funds from the IPO, and then acquired 100% of the equity of Hankang Pharmaceutical for 450 million yuan to intervene in the CXO industry, and pharmaceutical research and development has also grown rapidly in recent years, and the development of this part has become the core value of the company.
Tianjin Hankang is a high-tech enterprise that provides small molecule chemical medicine research and development services (CRO services) and carries out the industrial production and sales of chemical drugs. The main business covers all stages of the development process such as pharmaceutical research and clinical research services, providing customers with one-stop drug research and development services from R&D to clinical-production, covering cardiovascular and cerebrovascular categories, respiratory, digestive, mental disorder system and endocrine system and other fields. On the basis of Tianjin Hankang CRO and other service advantages, further to contract development and production service CDMO expansion, the company set up a wholly-owned subsidiary Jingmen Hanrui, focusing on the construction of high-end API CDMO service production base, in October began commercial production Has now have orders in hand and intended customers.
According to the latest operating performance, the construction of the basic industrial chain of CXO/CDMO has been complete, entered a state of stable development, and can obviously benefit from the trend of rapid development of the industry, so this part will become the value-driven core of the company in the future. From the perspective of industry competitiveness, Tianjin Hankang ranked in the TOP20 list of China's CRO/CDMO enterprises in 2020, and from the overall industry data, we can find that in the context of the rapid development of the industry, the valuation level of the entire industry is more than 50 times. Therefore, the valuation of this part: the annual revenue of 236 million × excluding R & D investment estimated net profit can be 20% × 50 times the valuation of the price-earnings ratio = 2.36 billion (this part of the valuation rational point is still undervalued, after all, the lowest valuation is selected,)
According to the above valuation, we can see that the rational valuation is 27 yuan per share, but in addition to the core value of the company that can be seen above, there is also a hidden core value that is its unique point. In 2015, the company participated in the research and development of multiple myeloma drugs through a shareholding (39.605%) of Beijing Shadong Bio. Beijing Shadong Biology is researching a new class I drug "recombinant allosteric human tumor necrosis factor-related apoptotic induction ligand (CPT) for injection. And last year, Beijing Shadong CPTIII phase completed the blinding, directly boosted Haite Biotech up 10 consecutive up and down board, so for the capital market, CXO is not its bubble value to promote the core, statistics when I found that the valuation of Yaoshi Technology is currently the industry's lowest valuation CXO, most institutions will directly study this company. And I mainly studied and paid attention to it because of the mention of "projects for (CPT) industrialization" in the direction of dingzeng.
"Recombinant allogeneic human tumor necrosis factor-related apoptotic induction ligand for injection" (hereinafter referred to as CPT), applied to multiple myeloma is a malignant disease of abnormal proliferation of clonal plasma cells (mostly in the elderly, the age of onset in China is mostly between 50 and 70 years old, the median age of onset is 60 years old, more men than women, and the median survival is 3 to 5 years. The incidence of multiple myeloma is increasing year by year, and it is estimated that the annual new incidence is 2/100,000 to 4/100,000, accounting for about 1% of malignant tumors and the second place in hematologic malignancies). Because CPT has a unique mechanism of action, there is no corresponding targeted drug listing, and the investment forecast consensus believes that once successfully listed, it will be able to quickly expand the market. This year, the company's CPT has been in the Pre-NDA stage (the meeting stage before the new drug application), and the company's management also emphasized that it was in the Pre-NDA stage when responding to the investment survey, and did not relax about the greater progress. On the contrary, because of the smooth implementation of the fixed increase recently, it has stimulated everyone's expectations.
At present, the price of the fixed increase has increased to 32 yuan, that is to say, the public value assessment has moved to 32 yuan, but as a slower secondary investor, it is also difficult to buy 32 yuan in the short term, and the current valuation of the fixed increase cost has increased by 30%, relatively speaking, the safety and cost performance are not excellent, but the trade-offs depend on the respective models. Risk warning: Now all the valuation increase comes from the industrialization expectation of CPT, if the future meeting rejects the listing failure, it is estimated that it will usher in a big risk, may directly fall back to the 27 yuan valuation I said. This is the inevitable risk of investing in innovative drugs, as the cliché goes: investment is risky, and decision-making needs to be cautious