Industry watch| potassium chloride prices hit a 10-year high Analysts: The later stage will still maintain a high and strong trend

Financial Associated Press (Qingdao, reporter Xiao Lianghua) news, under the dual role of strong demand and tight supply, potassium chloride prices continued to rise and out of the nearly 10 years of new highs. Eiffel Tower (002545. SZ) relevant person in charge told the Financial Associated Press reporter that since the end of May, the company's domestic market price of potassium chloride has risen by about 1,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 50% in 2 months. At present, the company's capacity utilization rate has been saturated, and some orders need to be delayed.

In the face of strong market demand and good profit margins, relevant listed companies are expected to achieve performance improvement. The relevant person in charge of the Oriental Tower said that the company expects that the production and sales of potassium chloride will increase by about 20% this year, and the performance level of the company's potassium chloride business is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year. 000893.sz has also publicly stated plans to double the company's production of potassium chloride this year.

The price of potassium chloride hit a 10-year high

This year, the company's potassium chloride at the beginning of the year has a wave of small upward adjustment after the trend is relatively stable, recently by the international market potash prices continue to rise and domestic imports to reduce the arrival of factors and other factors, domestic potassium chloride prices have been rising this year.

At present, the domestic shipment price of Oriental Tower potassium chloride products exceeds 3000 yuan / ton, and the price before the Spring Festival is about 1800 yuan / ton. Domestic potassium prices also closely follow the pace of imported potassium, * ST Salt Lake on july 20 on the investor interactive platform said that since July 16, the company signed a new contract 95% potassium chloride benchmark price adjusted to 3270 yuan / ton, the price compared with the price of 2450 yuan / ton in June has a significant increase.

According to the monitoring data of the China Agricultural Materials Circulation Association, the wholesale price index of potassium chloride in China on July 19 was 3647.72 yuan / ton, up 1738.40 yuan / ton year-on-year, an increase of 91.05%.

Li Feng, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said: "At present, the price of potassium chloride has hit a new high in nearly 10 years, and the prosperity is expected to continue. ”

Li Feng believes that at present, the global shipping is tight, the domestic potash fertilizer spot is less, and the early orders are forced to delay the supply. As the autumn fertilizer production time approaches, the downstream just needs to be clear. Under the dual role of supply and demand, the boom of potassium chloride is expected to continue, and the profitability of enterprises can be thickened.

Other insiders also said that on the one hand, the arrival of new domestic goods will rebound in the fourth quarter, while high-priced potash fertilizers will also inhibit the actual downstream demand. The domestic potash fertilizer market may have a correction in the fourth quarter, but it is not expected that the correction will be too large.

The performance of listed companies is expected to improve

In the face of strong market demand and good profit margins, relevant listed companies are also expanding production capacity through various channels.

In 2021, listed companies such as Oriental Tower and Potassium International will further increase potassium chloride production through technological transformation and new production capacity.

According to the relevant person in charge of the Oriental Tower, through technical reform and other measures, the company's potash production capacity has been improved, and the actual output of the company's potash fertilizer in 2021 is expected to increase by about 20% compared with 2020, reaching 600,000 tons. The second phase of the 500,000 tons of potassium chloride project is advancing as planned, with a long-term planning target of 2 million tons of production capacity.

It is reported that in the first and second quarters, the Oriental Tower executed more low-priced orders in the early stage, and the contribution of the potassium chloride plate to the company's performance was limited. After the rise in the price of potassium chloride, the company only has a slight increase in cost, if the current price can be maintained, the company's potassium chloride plate performance will increase significantly in the third and fourth quarters.

"Freight and other costs have risen in 2021, but the comprehensive cost per ton has increased by about 100 yuan, far less than the increase in potash prices, and the current potash prices continue to rise, and the company's profit margin is expected to further increase." Introduction to the company.

Potassium International currently has a production capacity of 250,000 tons of potassium chloride, and 1 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation in the second half of 2021. In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved operating income of 125 million yuan, an increase of 54.47% year-on-year, and net profit of 17.5274 million yuan, an increase of 325.23% year-on-year.

According to the staff of the company's securities department, the company's potassium chloride production capacity is expected to reach 500,000-700,000 tons in 2021, and the sales volume will increase significantly year-on-year.

In terms of domestic potassium, due to the overall scarcity of potassium resources in China, the reserves of potassium resources have decreased year by year, and the service life has gradually declined, and the expansion of resource-based potash fertilizer production capacity has been unsustainable.

The domestic potassium chloride production enterprise ST Salt Lake potash plate design annual output of 5 million tons, production capacity ranked fourth in the world, is the largest potash fertilizer production enterprises in China, is expected to remain stable this year. The company's performance forecast shows that in the first half of this year, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2 billion yuan - 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 44.69% - 59.15% year-on-year.

Another domestic potassium company, Zangge Holdings (000408. SZ) has a capacity of 2 million tons of potassium chloride, but the actual capacity has been in a state of half-production for a long time. The reporter learned that in order to make sustainable use of resources, the company's potassium chloride production this year will be slightly less than last year.