Will potassium chloride rise by two thousand in half a year continue?

The first half of 2021 has passed, and the maximum increase in potassium chloride has reached 2,000 yuan / ton, especially in the last Month of June alone. Recently, this potassium chloride is really crazy, although the current price has rushed to the second place in history and is still about a thousand yuan away from the historical high in 2008, but the "momentum" alone can be said to have created a new history in 2021. I have written a summary of the price increase before, and I have also written the reasons for the price increase, so today I will write about the bearishness of "risking the world's great disobedience". In fact, the rise in potassium chloride prices has always lacked the support of substantive factors, so no matter how fierce it is, it is only a castle in the air, and once it turns downward, it is likely to be a mess.

　　First of all, the main reason for the increase in the price of potassium chloride is that the supply may be tight, but it is still "possible" until now, especially with the increase in the pressure of high-priced sales and the obvious decline in downstream operating rates, the possibility of this tension has also been shaken. Customs data show that from January to May, the import volume of potassium chloride reached 4.04 million tons, minus the actual supply of a small amount of exports of about 3.9 million tons. Last year, the port and Qinghai summarized about 3.6 million tons of inventory, and its China reserves were 1.5 million tons. Due to the poor situation of the ore source and other reasons, it is initially expected that the production capacity of potassium chloride may be reduced to 6.5-7 million tons this year. That is to say, regardless of the amount of imports in the later period, the current supply can be determined to be about 12.5 million-13 million tons. The annual consumption of potassium chloride is roughly in the range of 14 million to 16 million tons, and it seems that the operating rate of the downstream has declined significantly, and it is expected that the operating rate of potassium sulfate will continue to decline in the later period, and the compound fertilizer will reduce the content of potassium, so this year's consumption is expected to be biased towards the low end or even lower. If the arrival volume of goods in the back is not so small, or the demand is reduced more severely, then is potassium chloride still rising?

　　Secondly, there used to be a very important reason for the increase in the price of potassium chloride, but now it is gone, that is, the price of single nutrient content is low. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is calculated to be 66 yuan, while nitrogen and phosphorus are still about 60 yuan. At the same time, the government's attention to the sharp rise in fertilizer prices is getting higher and higher, with the implementation of related measures, the possibility of urea prices in the later period has gradually increased, ammonium phosphate is likely to be limited, nitrogen and phosphorus no longer rise or even fall back, the market mentality has changed, potassium chloride alone can rise to where?

　　Third, on the one hand, the harm of the epidemic is gradually weakening, on the other hand, upstream inflation is widespread in the international scope, and countries are trying to solve it, so there will always be an end to the overheated food and fertilizer prices. In terms of potash fertilizer, although there are price increases such as rising freight rates, Meisheng production reduction, and Belarusian export restrictions, there are also buffer factors such as potassium production increases and new production capacity releases, as well as the potential threat of excessive high and low price differences in various regions. Moreover, the high-end of the domestic actual price and the high-end of the international market have been flat, and even if the large contract rises sharply in the later period, from a certain point of view, the strength of the price support is probably very limited.

　　In short, China needs the world, the world also needs China, and we still have the strength to confront the possible tension of potash fertilizer. Even if there are black swans flying in the later stage, the supply will really be very tight, but there is a reason for the rise in potassium chloride in June is still too much. Today, the author does not give the seller a recommendation to sell or not to sell, but only suggests that the downstream continue to reduce the demand for potassium chloride to the extent that it can, so as to help the market return to rationality. If the upper link can find a way to import more potash fertilizer, it will be better! China Fertilizer Network Author Adu / Reviewer Che Yanhong