· "Lookout" Newsweek reporters Yuan Bo, Gao Jianjun, Chen Di, Chen Jian
◇ The average price of pigs out of the pen in May is still near 31 yuan / kg, up 96.5% over the same period last year, and the average income of a fat pig out of the pen is at a high level of 1500 yuan to 2300 yuan. Farmers are worried that if the production capacity is restored in the first half of next year, the pigs are concentrated out of the barn, and the price falls, what to do
◇ Sow expansion is insufficient, piglet supply is in short supply, swine fever prevention and control is still variable, this year Sichuan wants to complete the annual target task of 60 million heads is not easy
◇ "Now every week I have to inspect the details of pig breeding, and it is no exaggeration to say that pig production is as important as poverty alleviation and economic development." ”
Sichuan pig production accounts for about one-tenth of the country, and has long ranked as the "largest province in pig breeding" in the country, and it is said that "Sichuan pigs are safe in the world". In 2018, Sichuan's pig output was more than 66 million heads. Affected by the epidemic of African swine fever in 2019, the output volume fell by nearly 30%, not only failed to "safe the world", but even faced difficulties in ensuring stable supply and price.
This year, Sichuan will complete the task of 60 million pigs out of the pen, basically returning to the level before the outbreak of African swine fever. The task of discharging the column has been issued everywhere, and the local pressure is not small. Wu Xiaoyong, secretary of the Wanyuan Municipal Party Committee of Dazhou City, told the "Lookout" news weekly reporter: "Now every week I have to inspect the details of pig breeding, and it is not an exaggeration to say that pig production is as important as poverty alleviation and economic development." ”
At present, the main risks are insufficient sow expansion, shortage of piglet supply, and there are still variables in the prevention and control of swine fever. Some experts said that if the African swine fever epidemic breaks out again, the pig breeding market in Sichuan and even the whole country will be greatly affected, and the price may rise to the "sky". On the other hand, many farmers are worried that after the recovery of production capacity in the first half of next year, pigs will be concentrated out of the barn, and the price will fall.
Zhou Hongzhen, a "pig" in Dongwan Village, Baoan Town, Luonan County, Shaanxi Province, has broken out of a road to ecological breeding to get rich through live broadcasts and online store sales (photo taken by Tao Ming on April 26).
High profits are accompanied by high risks
With the rise in pig prices, Zhou Jianjun, a farmer in Liuhe Village, Fangjia Town, Renshou County, Sichuan Province, tasted the sweetness of raising pigs: "The pig farm currently has 30 sows and 168 fattening pigs. In March this year, he sold 14 fat pigs and earned more than 30,000 yuan. ”
According to the monitoring and early warning system of Sichuan Province, the average price of pigs out of the pen in May is still near 31 yuan / kg, up 96.5% over the same period last year, and the average income of a fat pig out of the pen is at a high level of 1500 yuan to 2300 yuan. Affected by the African swine fever epidemic, while the profit of pig breeding is high, the risks from price fluctuations and capital chains are also very large.
Zhou Zuobin, a farmer in Longfeng Village, Guyi Street, Qionglai City, said: "In March this year, I spent 180,000 yuan to buy 100 piglets, the new crown pneumonia epidemic increased the cost by 10%, I want to expand the scale and lack of funds, and I am worried that environmental protection will not be able to pass and pig prices will fall." ”
Many scattered and small breeders cannot buy piglets and sows, coupled with poor risk resistance, have withdrawn from the market. In order to reduce risks, some medium-sized farmers rely on large-scale aquaculture enterprises to follow the "company + farmer" model. Wang Bo, owner of Bowei Family Farm in Wangu Village, Longma Town, Renshou County, cooperated with Dekang Company to invest 4 million yuan, transferred 300 mu of land, and built a breeding farm with three units, each unit can produce 1200 piglets per year. The reporter saw that the pen currently has 180 sows and more than 500 fattening pigs, and the surrounding land is planted with peppercorns, watermelons, citrus, etc., to explore the breeding cycle mode.
In the process of re-filling fences, renovating enclosures, and investing in biosecurity protection, some medium-sized farmers have encountered financial difficulties. Han Honglin, general manager of Zhongjiang County Sixiang Agricultural Co., Ltd., said: "Affected by the Epidemic of African Swine Fever, the cost of feed and epidemic prevention has increased, and the monthly expenditure is at least 200,000 yuan. If you can't mortgage financing, you have no cash flow, and you can only rely on selling fat pigs to maintain your expenses. ”
"Now the profits are high and the risks are high. Epidemic prevention is the first, in case of infection, the bamboo basket is empty. Wang Bo said that he invested in the construction of pig houses in strict accordance with the company's requirements, piglets, feed, technology, etc. were all provided by the company, and the company repurchased pigs, with an average stable profit of about 300 yuan per pig.
Jiang Tengtao, general manager of Chengdu Wangjiang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd., has invested 110 million yuan in pig raising, and recently had a loan that hoped to lend 5 million yuan, but the bank thought that the risk was too big, and only loaned 1.5 million yuan after evaluation. "My real estate, car, and equity are all pledged to the bank, which is a limited liability company, but I have unlimited responsibility." If pig prices plummet, I will go bankrupt. Jiang Tengtao said.
Since the second half of last year, the policy of encouraging pig production has been intensively introduced, and production capacity has steadily recovered. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig inventory increased by 3.9% month-on-month in May, an increase of 4 consecutive months.
The interviewed practitioners are worried that now the cost of raising pigs has gone up, if the production capacity is restored on a large scale as planned, the national pig market may start to concentrate on a large scale in the first half of next year, the price may fall sharply, and farmers may have the risk of loss.
Three major variables affect the amount of columns
Yang Xiubin, director of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Sichuan Province, said: "For the first time in so many years, Sichuan has refined the pig production task to each county, and it must also be the county party secretary personally supervising the battle." ”
The risk of insufficient breeding of fertile sows is the biggest "pig nose" that affects the task of pig out of the pen this year. Farmers reported that it takes 10 months to raise a sow from birth to breeding, about 114 days of pregnancy, 2 months to maintain the weight of piglets to 30 catties, and more than 14 months to breed sows. In other words, it is very difficult for pig farms that have now begun to resume production to achieve a large number of outstocks this year.
Some pig farms can only regenerate the "old sows" that are about to be eliminated for another year, or let the "little sows" that are not yet fully mature be bred in advance.
Piglet "a pig is difficult to find" is another "pig nose" that affects the task of out of the pen. The price of piglets is too high, and some small and medium-sized farmers are worried about the risks and dare not raise and cannot afford to raise them. The person in charge of the Tongjiang County Fengfu Modern Agricultural Professional Cooperative said that the cooperative has recently prepared to replenish 1,500 piglets, and the supply of commercial piglets is in short supply and the price is too high, and some free-range farmers cannot buy piglets, making up for the fence.
The bigger variable is still in the African swine fever epidemic, especially the risk of spreading the epidemic caused by the illegal transportation of live pigs. Not long ago, the Agricultural Law Enforcement Brigade of Nanjiang County, Bazhong City, intercepted two illegal pig vehicles at the temporary checkpoint for exporting African swine fever in the lower two towns of Nanjiang County on the Bashan Expressway. The two vehicles carried more than 200 pigs, worth more than 1 million yuan, and there was no quarantine certificate of origin and no animal immunization label.
Wang Shilin, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Sichuan Province, said that as of now, in many cases of illegal transfer of pigs across provinces seized this year, the nucleic acid of African swine fever virus has been detected positive for many times, and the situation of African swine fever prevention and control is grim.
Precise policy to crack the "pig cycle"
He Zhiping, vice president of the Sichuan Academy of Animal Sciences, said that Sichuan's pig production accounts for about one-tenth of the country, and if the African swine fever epidemic is not well controlled, the recurrence will have a huge impact on the market.
He Zhiping suggested that we should continue to implement a series of standardized practices such as the approval of seed introduction, quarantine supervision of the place of origin, isolation of landing reports, quarantine reports, quarantine reports out of the pen, etc., strengthen the implementation of self-inspection measures for African swine fever in large-scale farms, and regularly carry out disease investigation and diagnosis and grid supervision and management to ensure timely detection and timely disposal.
Regarding the African swine fever epidemic found in the inter-provincial transfer of piglets, Wang Shilin suggested that the supervision policies and measures for the transfer of live pigs after the abolition of the interprovincial highway toll station should be studied and formulated as soon as possible, and the construction of designated channels throughout the country should be considered as a whole, and the investigation and crackdown on illegal transfer of breeding pigs and piglets should be further intensified at the national level.
In order to enhance the breeding confidence of small and medium-sized farmers, Wang Shilin suggested that the price of piglets should be regulated from the national level.
For the farmers worried that after the production is restored, there will be a problem of "pigs injuring farmers", some farmers said that the state can strengthen monitoring in pig farms in various places, and help farmers to play a "pig abacus" in advance by scientifically calculating the feed prices, breeding costs, and output volume of large, medium and small farms, to help farmers play a "pig abacus" in advance, take measures similar to the stable production and production limitation of industrial enterprises, and accurately implement policies to reduce the damage of the "pig cycle".
He Zhiping believes that pig breeding has obvious time laws, and the consumption situation of the market can be basically determined, so it is necessary to accelerate the promotion of pig futures trading, flattening or even breaking the "pig cycle".
In addition, for large-scale farmers and farms, the state has launched a policy insurance tool of pig price index insurance, and the coverage of Sichuan is still relatively low, and many farmers, especially small and medium-sized farmers, look forward to a wider range of promotion of this policy.