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Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today. Since the first industrial revolution, the discovery and utilization of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas have greatly improved labor productivity and promoted the great prosperity and development of human society, while also producing serious environmental problems and climate change problems.
For more than 200 years, the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by the combustion of fossil fuels has reached 2.2 trillion tons, and the concentration of CO2 in the global atmosphere has continued to rise. In particular, CO2 concentrations have shown a rapid growth trend for more than half a century (Figure 1), and the volume fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere in April 2021 has reached 419×10−6, and the global average surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C.
Figure 1 Changes in the volume fraction of CO2 in the global atmosphere since the First Industrial Revolution
Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography
In 2018, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the "Global Warming 1.5°C Special Report", which pointed out the fact that global temperature rises have been observed, and the impact of temperature rises on humans is much higher than earlier forecasts, the impact of 2°C temperature rises on the world will be unbearable, and humans must control the temperature rise at 1.5°C. Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions dominated by CO2 has become a global non-traditional security problem, which seriously threatens the survival and sustainable development of mankind.
The proposal of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality commitment not only highlights China's responsibility as a world power, but also promotes the transformation and upgrading of China's energy structure, industrial structure and economic structure, and is of great strategic significance for China to achieve high-quality development and build a socialist modern power with harmonious coexistence between man and nature.
1 The challenges facing China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals
In the more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, and in 2019, China's total gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 14 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world; but the per capita GDP just exceeded 10,000 US dollars, ranking 67th in the world (Figure 2). As the world's largest developing country, China's unbalanced and insufficient development problems are still prominent, facing a series of arduous tasks such as developing the economy and improving people's livelihood; China's energy demand is still increasing, and carbon emissions are still in the rising stage, and have not yet reached a peak. At the same time of economic and social development, how to transform the energy structure, industrial structure and economic structure to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is the first major challenge.
Figure 2 The top 20 countries in global GDP (a) and GDP per capita (b) in 2019
Source: World Bank
From the perspective of total energy consumption, In 2020, China's total energy consumption ranks first in the world, accounting for more than 1/4 of the global total, and CO2 emissions account for 1/3 of the global total. From the perspective of energy consumption structure (Figure 3), China is still dominated by fossil energy consumption, accounting for more than 84% in 2020; more than half of China's energy consumption is still derived from coal, which is much higher than the proportion of coal in the global energy consumption structure. From the perspective of China's power generation type, 68% of the country's total power generation in 2020 will come from thermal power. According to the carbon emission data of different industries in China (Figure 4), power generation and heat (accounting for 51%) and industry (accounting for 28%) are the two carbon emission industries with the largest sources in China. From the perspective of carbon peak time, major countries in the European Union have achieved carbon peaking before the 1990s, and the United States also achieved carbon peaking in 2007. The main countries in the European Union have proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, from achieving carbon peaking to carbon neutrality for more than 60 years; while China's late start to achieve the goal of carbon peaking (2030) to carbon neutrality (2060) is less than half of the time for major EU countries. This means that China needs to use a shorter period of time to transform 84% of fossil energy into a net zero carbon emission energy system, which is a tight time and heavy task, which is the second major challenge.
Figure 3 Global energy consumption structure (a) in 2020, and China's energy consumption structure (b) and power structure (c)
Source: BP, China Electricity Council
Figure 4 Carbon emissions from different industries in China from 1990 to 2018
Source: International Energy Agency
From the perspective of the social level of climate change and greenhouse gas control, China lags behind developed countries in terms of people's will, enterprise recognition, technical reserves, market mechanisms, laws and regulations. For example, since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, major countries and regions in the world have established regional carbon trading systems to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction commitments; from 2005 to 2015, 17 carbon trading systems across four continents have been built, and China's national carbon emission trading was officially launched in July 2021. China's carbon trading system needs to catch up, which is the third major challenge.
In order to cope with the above challenges, China must accelerate the economic and social systemic change towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, carry out the energy revolution, and achieve new breakthroughs and new leaps in energy supply, energy consumption, energy technology and energy system.
2 Energy transformation under a carbon neutral vision
Carbon neutrality is a green revolution that will build a new zero-carbon industrial system – carbon neutrality cannot be achieved without disruptive, transformative technological breakthroughs. In the future, energy reform will present "five modernizations": from the perspective of energy supply, it is zero carbonization of electricity and zero carbonization of fuel; from the perspective of energy demand, energy utilization is efficient, re-electrified and intelligent (Figure 5). Finally, China will build a future clean, zero-carbon, safe and efficient energy system with new energy as the mainstay, "fossil energy + carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)" and nuclear energy as the guarantee.
Figure 5 Energy transformation towards carbon neutrality
Looking at the future energy revolution from the energy supply side
1 Zero carbonization of electricity
At present, up to 41% of the world's carbon emissions come from the power industry, and China's carbon emissions are as high as 51% from power generation and heat, and power decarbonization and zero carbonization are the keys to achieving carbon neutrality goals.
1. To achieve electricity decarbonization and zero carbonization, we must first vigorously develop renewable energy power generation。
In the past 10 years, China's renewable energy has achieved leapfrog development, and the scale of renewable energy development and utilization has ranked first in the world。 In 2020, China's renewable energy power generation accounted for 29.5% of the total social electricity consumption, and the total power generation reached 2.2 trillion kWh; by the end of that year, China's installed renewable energy power generation capacity accounted for 42.4% of the total installed capacity, and the total scale has reached 930 million kilowatts (Figure 6).
Figure 6 By the end of 2020, China's installed capacity of different types of power generation
Source: National Energy Administration
The cost of renewable energy generation is also declining, and the global cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen by about 85% in the past 10 years (2010-2020). In June 2021, the State Power Investment Corporation reported a low price of 0.1476 yuan / kWh for the 200,000-kilowatt photovoltaic project in the first phase of Zhengdou in Ganzizhou, Sichuan Province, setting a record for the lowest price of photovoltaic power plant projects in China. It is predicted that China's wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 1.6 billion to 1.8 billion kilowatts by 2030 and more than 5 billion kilowatts in 2050.
2. To achieve power decarbonization and zero carbonization, the core is to build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
The dual randomness and volatility of the high proportion of new energy and massive loads have brought great challenges to the power balance and safe operation of the power grid, and it is urgent to change the traditional power supply mode of "source with load" and improve the flexibility of the power system. It is necessary to focus on breaking through the in-depth interaction and regulation method of the regional power system "source network load storage", improve the resilience of the power electronic power system, carry out prediction and management of power supply and demand based on big data, and establish a decentralized autonomous and mutual trust trading mechanism for power.
It is necessary to deepen the reform of the electric power system and innovate the electricity market mechanism and business model. Relying on distributed photovoltaic power generation and wind power throughout the country, transforming every building into a micro-power plant, vigorously developing virtual power plants, smart microgrids and energy storage technologies, deploying more new energy installed capacity, issuing and consuming more new energy electricity, so that conventional thermal power generation can be transformed from the current baseload power to peak shaving power, and realize power decarbonization and zero carbonization.
The construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is a major change, and Germany's experience is worth learning. Germany has announced that it will abandon nuclear weapons in 2022 and coal in 2038, and will build an energy system with all 100% renewable energy in 2050. Germany has taken the lead in promoting the development of renewable energy, and has established distributed photovoltaic power generation, wind power, biomass power generation and energy storage units throughout the country; through the prediction and management of the power supply side and demand side based on big data, as well as the Internet-based power trading and service platform, it has effectively promoted renewable energy consumption and improved the balance between supply and demand in the power grid. In Germany, a high proportion of renewable energy has transformed conventional thermal power from baseload to peak-shaving power, successfully transforming the energy mix.
3. To achieve decarbonization and zero carbonization of electricity, fossil energy power generation can achieve net zero carbon emissions through CCUS.
CCUS is currently the key technology to achieve large-scale zero-carbon utilization of fossil fuels, combined with CCUS's thermal power will balance the volatility of renewable energy generation, providing guaranteed power and grid flexibility. "New energy power generation + energy storage" and "thermal power + CCUS" will be an indispensable combination of technologies, and the in-depth synergy between them will become the key to the future clean, zero-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) research, under a sustainable development scenario, all non-carbon capture and storage (CCS) coal-fired power units will be phased out globally by 2045, and 1 000 terawatt-hours of electricity will be produced by coal-power combined with CCS technology. Therefore, it is necessary to increase investment in CCUS technology research and development, reduce costs and energy consumption: develop new absorbents, adsorbents and membrane separation materials, and carry out core technology research for carbon capture, separation, transportation, utilization, storage and monitoring; it is necessary to establish a CCUS standard system and management system, CCUS carbon emission trading system, fiscal and tax incentive policies, carbon finance ecology as soon as possible, promote the application demonstration of million-ton CO2 capture and utilization technology for thermal power units, and realize the marketization and commercial application of CCUS.
2 Zero carbonization of fuel
Fuel zero carbonization is the production of renewable fuels with renewable energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy as the main energy, including hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic fuels. Renewable fuel production based on zero-carbon electricity (Figure 7) will create a new "source-storage-load" form of offline renewable energy utilization, which is expected to make transportation and industrial fuels independent of fossil fuels, achieving net zero carbon emissions from fuels. Renewable fuels are a potentially transformative technology that offers entirely new solutions for the transformation of national energy strategies and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.
Figure 7 Renewable fuel production based on zero-carbon electricity
Renewable synthetic fuel is the use of renewable energy through electrocatalytic, photocatalytic, thermal catalysis and other conversion to reduce CO2, in order to synthesize hydrocarbon fuel or alcohol ether fuel, with high energy density, convenient transportation and refueling, can use the current gas station and other infrastructure, low cost of social applications and other advantages. Nobel Laureate in Chemistry George Andrew George Andrew Olah, in his 2006 book Crossing the Age of Oil and Gas: The Methanol Economy, proposed the use of renewable energy to convert industrial emissions and natural CO2 into carbon-neutral alcohol ether fuels.
In 2018, Shi Chunfeng, Zhang Tao, Li Jinghai, Bai Chunli and 4 academicians jointly posted in Joule that if human beings want to obtain, store and supply solar energy, the key lies in how to convert it into a stable, storable, high-energy chemical fuel, and "liquid sunlight" will likely achieve the future world. In recent years, the technology of converting CO2 through renewable energy to prepare synthetic fuels has attracted great attention from major developed countries and regions in the world. Carbon Recycling International built the world's first commercial methanol plant based on CO2 recycling in Iceland, further synthesizing renewable methanol with CO2 through geothermal power generation, electrolysis of water to hydrogen (H2), and the company's methanol production capacity reached 4 000 tons in 2014.
In October 2020, the 1,000-ton "liquid sunlight" fuel synthesis demonstration project of Academician Li Can's team of academicians from dalian institute of chemical physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was successfully operated in Lanzhou. The European Union launched the Energy-X project to explore the recycling of carbon-based energy sources using CO2 as a medium; the U.S. Department of Energy established the Liquid Sunlight Alliance (LiSA) to focus on CO2 light/reduced liquid fuels; and Shanghai Jiao Tong University established the Renewable Synthetic Fuel Research Center with the goal of developing a renewable synthetic fuel system based on zero-carbon electricity. Hepburn et al. of the University of Oxford published an article in Nature predicting that 4.2 billion tons of CO2 worldwide will be converted into synthetic fuels by 2050.
In order to truly realize the acquisition of renewable synthetic fuels through sunlight, water and CO2, it is urgent to carry out basic theory and key technology research on renewable synthetic fuels. For the CO2 reduction and conversion products, based on the interaction and regulation mechanism between fuel and power unit, the renewable synthetic fuel design is carried out; the catalyst structure-activity relationship is established at the molecular level to realize the design and functional customization of the efficient CO2 reduction catalyst system; and then the energy-efficient CO2 reduction synthetic fuel system is constructed to realize the highly selective conversion of CO2 to liquid fuel molecules and the synthesis of renewable fuels.
Looking at the future energy transformation from the energy demand side
On the energy demand side, it is necessary to accelerate the realization of energy utilization efficiently, re-electrified and intelligent.
1 Efficiency
Energy utilization efficiency, energy saving and carbon reduction are the most basic important tasks for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Since 2012, China's unit GDP energy consumption has decreased by 24.4%, which is significantly higher than the global average rate reduction; however, it is worth noting that in 2019, China's unit GDP energy consumption is still higher than the global average of 50%, which is about 3 times that of the United Kingdom and Japan, and the potential for energy conservation and carbon reduction is considerable. China should increase the research and development and promotion of advanced technologies such as energy conservation, water saving, material saving, and carbon reduction, and comprehensively promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas such as electric power, industry, transportation, and construction; accelerate the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reduction technology transformation for enterprises in high-energy-consuming and high-carbon emission industries such as electric power, iron and steel, petrochemical chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, as well as transportation vehicle equipment and public buildings, so as to reduce energy consumption and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP.
2 Re-electrification
Re-electrification refers to the realization of a high degree of electrification based on zero-carbon electricity on the basis of traditional electrification; the future carbon-neutral and social energy must be developed around zero-carbon electricity. In 2018, the global electrification level, that is, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption, was only 19%, and 25.5% in China, and it is expected that the global electrification level will be higher than 50% in 2050. On the basis of accelerating the supply of zero-carbon electricity, accelerating the re-electrification of industry, construction, transportation and other fields is an important way to improve energy efficiency, realize energy utilization decarbonization and zero carbon.
3 Wisdom
Through the Internet, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud technology and other information and control technologies, intelligent interconnection and interconnection of people, energy equipment and systems, energy services, so that power supply, power grid, load and energy storage are deeply coordinated, and a high degree of integration of energy flow and information flow is realized.
The various distributed power generation and massive loads are structured through the network, each unit is intelligent, and the efficiency of energy production, trading, and utilization, as well as the sharing of energy infrastructure, is an important means to improve energy utilization efficiency and maximize the local consumption of renewable energy. Blockchain technology makes data or information have the characteristics of "full trace", "traceability", "openness and transparency", "collective maintenance" and so on, which will change the production and trading mode of the energy system and realize peer-to-peer new energy production, trading, and infrastructure sharing. For example, in the future, people will be able to easily sell excess photovoltaic electricity on their roofs to strangers who need to charge electric vehicles nearby through mobile phone applications (APP), and this peer-to-peer trading system makes the nodes in the energy system independent producers and consumers.
3 General trend of energy development
The general trend of carbon-neutral energy development is to vigorously promote the decarbonization and zero carbonization of electricity on the energy supply side, the zero carbonization of fuels, and the efficient, re-electrification and intelligent use of energy on the energy demand side through energy reform. Fossil energy, especially coal, will be transformed into a guaranteed energy source, and the net zero carbon emissions of fossil energy will be achieved through CCUS, while the nuclear power will be steadily developed; on this basis, a future clean, zero-carbon, safe and efficient energy system with new energy as the main body, "fossil energy + CCUS" and nuclear energy as the guarantee will be built.
1. In the form of energy production, it will move from the top-down tree structure of the existing power system (generation - transmission - distribution - electricity consumption) to a flat, distributed energy autonomous units of mutual peer interconnection structure。 This energy interconnection enables the hierarchical access and consumption of renewable energy to be realized, and a new power system with new energy as the main body is built.
2. In the main body of energy production and consumption, it will be transformed from energy producers and consumers independent of each other to the integration of energy producers and marketers。 With the increasing maturity of distributed energy systems and intelligent microgrids and local area network technologies and the popularity of electric vehicles, the decentralized power supply and active load in the power grid will continue to grow, and each building will be transformed into a micro-power plant, and the original demand side users will play the dual role of consumers and producers, becoming independent energy producers and consumers.
3. In terms of energy structure, fossil energy will gradually change from the main energy to the guarantee energy, the proportion of primary energy consumption will be greatly reduced, and the proportion of renewable energy will continue to increase significantly from supplementary energy to main energy。 This change in energy use from high-carbon to low-carbon and finally to zero-carbon energy will be revolutionary and disruptive.
3 Conclusion
The energy transformation under the carbon neutral vision includes zero carbonization of electricity on the supply side, zero carbonization of fuels, and efficient, re-electrification and intelligence of energy utilization on the demand side.
Decarbonization and zero carbonization of electricity is the key and top priority to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, and carbon-neutral and social energy must revolve around zero-carbon electricity. It is necessary to make the greatest efforts to improve the development speed and supply capacity of non-carbon-based power, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
2
Facing carbon neutrality, fossil energy, especially coal, will be transformed into a guaranteed energy source in China.
CCUS is currently the key technology to achieve large-scale zero-carbon utilization of fossil energy, combined with CCUS thermal power will promote net zero emissions in the power system, balance the volatility of renewable energy generation, and provide guaranteed power and grid flexibility. "New energy power generation + energy storage" and "thermal power + CCUS" will be an indispensable combination of technologies, which will constitute a future clean, zero-carbon, safe and efficient energy system with new energy as the main body, "fossil energy + CCUS" and nuclear energy as the guarantee.
3
Carbon peaking is quantitative change, carbon neutrality is qualitative change, and only through the quantitative change of carbon peaking can not go through carbon neutral qualitative change.
Carbon neutrality cannot be achieved without energy change, without economic and social systemic social change, without a green revolution. The core of carbon-neutral future energy is a fully new energy system formed by a series of subversive and transformative energy technologies as strategic support.
4
Achieving the goal of "double carbon", especially carbon neutrality and economic and social development, is not an antagonistic relationship, not a "track overtaking" but a "change of track", which is to redefine the way human society uses resources, and it is a challenge and an opportunity.
Carbon neutrality will lead the construction of a new zero-carbon industrial system, and mankind will move from energy development and utilization based on natural endowments to new energy development and utilization based on technological innovation. Whoever occupies the lead in zero-carbon technology innovation is the "frontrunner" on the "new track" and is likely to lead the next round of industrial revolution.
5
The energy reform oriented to carbon neutrality is not only an energy problem and an environmental problem, but a global and systematic problem; it is not achieved overnight, but it must be carried out in an orderly manner, first established and then broken.
The path of energy transformation requires scientific design and decision-making based on multiple levels of technology, markets, policies and regulations.
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