Some time ago
"This year's hurricane names are not enough"
On the hot search
The picture shows the "Green Hornet" comprehensive Columbia National Television, CNN, New York Times and other compiled reports
It was the afternoon of November 16, local time
Hurricane "IOTA" gives
The devastation brought about by colombia and the Caribbean
In the morning, the National Hurricane Center of the United States will "Jota"
Designated as the highest level of Category 5 hurricane
This is the first Category 5 hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
Although it has been downgraded to a Category IV hurricane since its landfall
But the strong winds, storm surges and torrential rains remained
It has seriously affected many countries in Central America
As a result, tens of thousands of people in Central America were evacuated urgently
The most severe thing is --
The 2020 hurricane season is not over yet
In 2020
Hurricane season inventory
May 16
The first named storm "Arthur" appeared
May 21
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast
The activity of this year's Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be "higher than normal"!
June 1
The National Hurricane Center tweeted
This year's hurricane season has begun
August 6
NOAA Update Forecast!
This year's Atlantic hurricane season will be "extremely active"
The number of named storms is almost twice as many as in previous years!
September 18
Hurricane Wilfred goes live
After a lapse of 15 years, the storm named Plan B was launched again
This matter is on the hot search
During the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season,
When all 21 storm and hurricane names have been used up,
Scientists for the first time enabled the Greek alphabet
Naming the 22nd tropical storm "Alpha"
That hurricane season produced 27 named storms
6 of them are named after Greek letters
This year there were 30 named storms
Nine of them are named after Greek letters
One published by CBS
Polls found
45% of respondents believe that
Climate change is "largely" responsible
A more severe and active hurricane season
Is this really the case?
Why is the hurricane season so active this year?
Meteorologists from the University of Colorado, the University of Pennsylvania and others believe that it may be due to abnormal sea temperatures and "absent" El Niño.
1 Ocean temperatures are on the high side
November 11
According to a new study published in the journal Nature
Hurricanes that form on warmer oceans can
Absorb and store more moisture
This makes it last longer
At the same time, the impact of wind and rain is stronger
The water in the ocean splits into hurricanes sweeping across land to provide fuel, just like burning a cannonball that stores fuel to pierce a target, and the more fuel the hurricane goes, the farther the hurricane goes. (Image by Julio M. Barros Jr. and Lin Li)
The ocean surface temperature in the Atlantic Ocean has been unusually warm
This could fuel storms
Of course, the Atlantic Ocean is not the only warming ocean in the world
Falko Judt, a meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said
Many of the world's oceans have above-average temperatures
This is a signal of global warming
In fact
The ocean absorbs more than 90 per cent
The heat accumulated by human activities on Earth
This is an important reason why the oceans are constantly warming
NOAA data shows that in April this year, the global ocean temperature was above average, and usually the ocean temperature does not change quickly. If temperatures are above average for months in a row, it's reasonable to say that temperatures will still be above average later in the season.
2 El Niño "absence"
Warm El Niño current
The Pacific Ocean has a significant impact on the Atlantic hurricane season
When the eastern and central tropical Pacific oceans are large seas
When the sea surface temperature is above average
We call it the El Niño phenomenon
One of the important implications is
It produces strong easterly winds
Violently "hit" the Atlantic hurricane
Thus preventing its generation from developing
But this year
There are no signs of El Niño
Is climate change the main culprit in all this?
Although the number of hurricanes on Earth has been increasing since the 1970s, it is uncertain whether this phenomenon is related to human behavior.
NOAA Laboratory of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Head of the Climate Change and Predictability Group
Gabriel Vecchi
In response to the causes of Hurricane Patricia in 2015
related interviews
Contributed an interesting metaphor:
The challenge of finding the causes of warming seawater is likened to this
Board game "Clue"
"There are all sorts of suspects, all in this room right now," he said. "The key is to systematically figure out who, when, and where they are, so that we can exclude people who are not the killers, or phenomena that are not influencing factors." He also said that using this analogy to continue to deduce, several suspects may cooperate in the case, and there may be characters that you do not understand. And, as in all mysteries, "there is a possibility of a major plot reversal at the end." ”
At present, the factors that limit the "murder" of scientists are:
Data is limited
Before the 1970s, when meteorological satellites became commonplace, storm data was very limited and not necessarily reliable. The accumulation of research close to a few decades does not determine the link between hurricanes and natural change, nor can it draw conclusions about long-term trends in hurricanes.
The causes are complex
There are a variety of different warming phenomena interacting with ocean temperatures, such as the strong El Niño climate formed by the equator, the persistent anomalous warm water areas (the blob) in the coastal waters of North America, and it is difficult to clarify what effect the rising temperature in some remote areas of the earth will have on the formation of hurricanes.
It may not just be about pollution
Aerosol contamination causes local cooling of the surrounding environment, which can inhibit storm formation. A study published in 2013 linked the passage of the Clean Air Act in Europe and the United States in 1970 to the decline in aerosols, rising temperatures and increased tropical storms in the late 1980s, but this was "one of the most important questions about hurricanes that we have yet to answer."
Small saplings torn apart by a hurricane
So, what can scientists be sure of?
Hurricanes are likely to get stronger in the future, and some positive responses from government and society must be put on the agenda.
Hurricanes will get stronger and stronger in the future
On May 18, 2020, a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that long-term data showed that hurricanes were increasing in intensity, and a warming Earth may be contributing to this "strengthening."
The findings are based on a series of research efforts since 2013 and are constantly being updated. Lead author James Kossin, a NOAA climate scientist at Northwestern University(UW Madison), believes that "our findings suggest that these storms are getting stronger at the global and regional levels, which is consistent with expectations of how hurricanes respond to global warming... But our results don't tell us exactly how many trends are caused by human activities and how many may just be natural variations. ”
In 2017, GOES-16 observed Hurricane Harvey hitting North America
Early action is needed to address the possible impact of hurricanes
Rising sea levels and overexploitation of coastal cities could lead to more fragile coastlines and an upward trend in hurricane damage; as global temperatures rise, inland areas that are less able to cope with hurricanes may be more affected.
Flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005
From a scientific point of view
We can't easily think of a storm
Even a single hurricane season is a symptom of climate change
Whether climate change is directly causing hurricanes
Intensity increases, frequency increases, duration is lengthened
More data and demonstration work are needed
But
People should not stand idly by
Scientists have reached a consensus on this
The inevitable increase in ocean water temperature and sea level caused by climate change can lead to disasters that are predictable, so threatened regions and countries must respond as soon as possible. Time is not necessarily the same for political policymakers and academics, and it may be too late to wait for the scientific community to reach a consensus before taking action.
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Françoise Gaill