21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report "soaring" and "plummeting" have become the main theme of the commodity futures market recently.
Under the domination of supply and demand, superimposed on the factors of market speculation, the "three coal brothers" composed of thermal coal, coking coal and coke have soared in recent times. The iron ore on the other side continues to fall into the abyss, and in just a few months, it has been slashed from an indispensable historical high, which has become a rare phenomenon in this round of commodity price increases.
The high price of coal has scorched many downstream industries, and the rising prices of coking coal and coke continue to squeeze the profit margins of the downstream steel industry, and the soaring price of thermal coal has made cement and coal power plants bitter. In addition to safety and capacity reduction, a dual-control action of energy consumption in various places at the end of the year is also quietly unfolding, bringing more complex impacts to various industries.
Coal soared and iron ore plummeted
The soaring price of coal in recent days has attracted the attention of all parties, although the increase in recent days is relatively calm, but the price is still at a historical high, the price of thermal coal futures rose above 1,000 yuan, and the overall market has no obvious signs of cooling.
As of September 17, Beijing time, the price of the main thermal coal futures contract came to 1057.8 yuan / ton, before the highest touched the high of 1094 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 80% over a year ago; the price of the main contract of coking coal futures was 2693 yuan / ton, and the highest touched a high of 3099 yuan / ton on September 10, more than doubled year-on-year; the price of coke was 3218 yuan / ton, and the highest touched the high of 3847 yuan / ton, nearly doubling year-on-year.
In the spot market, the situation of short supply of coal continues. Mining enterprises in Yulin and other places in Shaanxi Province have both prospered in production and sales, and many power plants and chemical plants have no choice but to accept high prices and invest in the tide of coal grabbing.
Globally, the boom in commodity price increases has not subsided, including crude oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper and other products are rising. However, iron ore, which was in the limelight in the first half of the year, has continued to plummet in the recent past and has come out of an extremely rare market.
The general iron ore price index began to fall continuously on September 8, and by September 17, the cumulative straight decline of 32.3 US dollars / ton in 8 trading days, a decline of 24.3%. Based on the all-time high of $233/mt set in May this year, the high price of iron ore futures has been cut off in just four months.
On September 17, the main Contract for Singapore Iron Ore Futures, delivered in October, briefly fell below $100/mt, a drop of more than 7% during the day, the lowest level since July 2020, and iron ore futures recorded the worst weekly performance of the futures in history.
In the domestic market, as of the afternoon close of September 17, the main iron ore contract has fallen to 629 yuan / ton, a decline of 53%, a new low since May 2020.
Supply and demand dominate the two heavens of ice and fire
Futures such as coal, iron ore and steel, collectively known as the black series, soared en masse in the first half of the year. Nowadays, due to the changes in supply and demand, it has taken a completely different path.
For more than a month since the end of July, the price of coking coal futures has soared to a record high, and the entire coal sector has risen sharply by nearly 70%, and the reason for the rise is mainly the contradiction between supply and demand in addition to the promotion of capital.
Wang Siya, senior analyst of Lange Steel Network, pointed out that the domestic demand for coking coal continued to grow in the first half of the year, especially the sharp rise in steel prices stimulated the enthusiasm of steel mills, and the market demand for coke and coking coal continued to grow, while the lack of coal supply led to price increases.
Since the beginning of this week, coal prices have fallen, on the one hand, due to the tightening of policies, such as the repeated increase in fees and margins by large commercial firms, by increasing transaction costs to curb crazy speculation, in order to cool down the bifocal; on the other hand, the NDRC interviewed energy companies and asked enterprises to ensure stable prices, especially long-term price. Under the influence of comprehensive factors, coal prices directly turned downward.
On the whole, the current domestic coal imports mainly come from Countries such as Mongolia, Russia and Canada, and the arrival cycle is very uncertain because coal transportation is more directly affected by the climate. In the case of unstable supply, the current price still has some support.
A relevant person in the large coal chemical industry pointed out to the 21st Century Economic Herald reporter that the price of coking coal has risen sharply recently, and the price of coke has also risen, but the cost of coking coal has greatly squeezed the profits of coke, and the profit margin of coke enterprises is limited, and some enterprises are already on the verge of profit and loss.
On the iron ore side, the production restriction policy that began in the second half of the year has gradually landed, directly impacting the market demand for iron ore, and the change in supply and demand has led to a sharp decline in iron ore prices. From the policy side, the crude steel production in the regions where the output rose sharply in the first half of the year needed to be significantly reduced, and the steel industry in some areas suffered the impact of energy consumption double control, and reduced production on the basis of production restrictions.
Wang Siya pointed out that for iron ore, the demand side of the production limit is still suppressing iron ore, the supply side of the incremental pressure is acceptable, the current emotional surface is empty, iron ore is difficult to improve in the short term.
In terms of steel, although the production limit is becoming stricter, but there is still a certain periodicity in the landing, the current steel mill reduction is general, mostly concentrated in individual areas, the rest is basically in line with market expectations. It is worth noting that the shortage of power resources has led to an increase in the degree of power limiting, which in turn has affected production, which is expected to continue until October, and production will continue to decline.
Industrial policies continue to affect the market
The sharp changes in commodity prices and the introduction of new policies have brought more complex impacts on cement, coal power, steel, coking and other industries.
Since the beginning of this year, safety accidents have occurred in many places, and under the severe situation, the safety inspection work in various places has become more stringent, which has directly affected the output of coal mines in many places. Since then, economic development and summer heat have brought about a significant increase in electricity demand, which has further stimulated the growth of coal demand. Since the second half of the year, energy consumption control in many places has begun to move, and power rationing and production limitation have become more common.
China Electricity Federation said that the current fuel costs of coal power enterprises have risen sharply, but it is difficult to effectively channel outwards, enterprises have serious losses, and general capital turnover is difficult. The state has adopted measures to focus on the storage and supply of storage, and at present, the northeast region and the heating power plant are mainly replenished, and the bottom line of people's livelihood is maintained. In order to control consumption, many places have begun to implement orderly production policies for high-energy-consuming industries, and introduced power-saving measures, and subsequent power and coal consumption will be significantly reduced.
At the other end, Yunnan, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanxi and other places have successively clarified the scope of the two highs, and tightened the management of dual control of energy consumption.
Jiangsu Province, where the energy-saving situation is severe, has recently implemented production restrictions or suspensions in many industries such as cement and steel, and Yunnan, Guizhou and other places have also curtailed electrolytic aluminum, cement and other industries because of energy consumption control, which has also directly led to the rise in local cement, aluminum and other prices.
Some cement industry analysts pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the rise in coal prices has pushed up the price of cement, and the production restriction has further exacerbated this trend, but the overall market demand is not strong, showing an embarrassing situation of weak supply and demand.
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