(Image from Baidu invasion and deletion)
Text ▍ Chen Bo
Gold nine silver ten, is the peak production period of the enterprise.
But at this moment in the year, some people who do business are very bitter. A bunch of orders are in hand, but there is no electricity to produce. ‘
Today, #East Three Provinces Peak Power Pull Gate Power Rationing # once rushed to the first place in the hot search. Not only have the three eastern provinces lost power, but even Guangdong Province has implemented an orderly electricity consumption plan of "opening two stops and five stops" every week since September 18. Similarly, Jiangsu Province has also introduced a power curtailment policy in some areas, tentatively scheduled for 15 days, and implemented from 0:00 on September 15. Zhejiang Province even requires the province to immediately implement electricity load reduction for key energy-using enterprises with high energy consumption, and all localities should stop production until the end of the month under the premise of ensuring safety.
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What is the matter with pulling the brakes and curtailing the power in the peak production season?
There are many conspiracy theories and speculations on the Internet about the "pulling the brakes and curtailing the electricity", and the most outrageous one I have heard is that someone said: "China wants to export inflation to the United States." "When I see this argument, am I really a black question mark, and I can export inflation with a limited electricity?"
Although China's comprehensive national strength has been greatly improved compared with the past, this does not mean that the whole world must rely on China for development. A slight reduction in China's production capacity will not produce output inflation. For example, there is a shortage of chips in Taiwan, and the price of chips has risen, but this has not caused output inflation.
It is already outrageous to say that inflation is exported, and of course there are some more new and unconventional speculations, as shown in the following chart:
Any problem that can be solved by simple logical reasoning should not be speculated about by complex conspiracy theories. Although conspiracy theories are common forms of artistic expression in film and television works and novels, the chances of appearing in the process of the great power game are very small.
So, why has such a large-scale power curtailment occurred in the country recently?
The basic reason is that the cost of producing electricity is too expensive. Since the beginning of this year, affected by the sharp rise in coal prices and the continuous high operation, the domestic power supply and demand tension has led to insufficient power supply, so there will be large-scale power curtailment, and those industrial enterprises that consume huge electricity have naturally become the main objects of power curtailment.
(The picture originates from the coal resource network intrusion and deletion)
There must be a premise for the occurrence of power curtailment, that is, there is a gap in power, that is, insufficient supply capacity. In order to ensure the economics of electricity consumption, power generation and grid resources can not be blindly built, and it is necessary to leave a certain margin on the basis of meeting the needs of the existing and future periods. Power curtailment is only a means of solving the problem of insufficient supply, and it basically occurs every summer, but the severity of power curtailment in the northeast is relatively rare.
When curtailing electricity, usually the choice of users for power curtailment is orderly, and the government, hospitals, residents, etc. are usually the last to be curtailed, because people's livelihood must be a priority issue. This means that the public's feelings about power rationing will not be very direct and will not be particularly strong. I remember that when I first graduated from college, there were often power outages every summer, and then with china's economic development to strengthen the construction of power plants and power grid resources, I have not encountered power curtailment for many years.
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What is the purpose of power curtailment?
This power cut for enterprises is not a "one-size-fits-all" comprehensive power cut. As far as I know, the economic output effect of industrial enterprises determines whether they will encounter the problem of power curtailment. If an industrial enterprise has relatively high economic benefits and relatively little electricity consumption, it will basically not be limited by electricity consumption, and vice versa, there will be power curtailment.
So, what is the purpose of this nationwide power cut?
First of all, so far, coal burning is still the main raw material for electricity energy production in China, and one of the main reasons for this power cut is the rise in coal prices. There is a certain contradiction between the price of coal and the price of electricity, that is, "market coal, planned electricity", which means that the price of coal has always been affected by the market Price fluctuations are very large, but the price of electricity is relatively stable, if the price of coal continues to rise, it will become a loss of one kilowatt of electricity with one degree of electricity. Therefore, this active power curtailment is essentially equivalent to forcing the price of commodities such as coal to be reduced, and it is also equivalent to limiting power generation in another way.
Secondly, power rationing is actually forcing some industrial enterprises to carry out industrial upgrading. In other words, this is also a kind of supply-side reform, in order to eliminate some energy-consuming but low-output industries, some low-end processing industries in the future are likely to be gradually banned, but those high-end manufacturing industries with low power consumption but high output do not need to worry too much, and power curtailment will hardly affect them.
In his speech at the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, it was greatly proposed that China should increase the intensity of nationally determined contributions, strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which is an important task for China to achieve low-carbon transformation and fulfill international commitments. Driven by this mission, the transformation of industrial enterprises with low output and high energy consumption will inevitably become a main line of China's development in the next 20 years.
This large-scale power curtailment, we can see that although there is no shortage of electricity in some areas, in order to strictly implement the carbon peak indicator, so the energy consumption will also have the highest limit. For example, some industrial enterprises around Hangzhou were also pulled out at the end of September.
I interviewed some friends of local industrial enterprises, and they said: Power curtailment is not the first time it has happened, it is expected, but this time the power curtailment has become a national thing. Coupled with some conspiracy theory guidance, so that everyone becomes nervous.
In addition, this large-scale power cut also exposes some of our usual management problems. If the relevant departments can carry out reasonable control and planning of those high-energy-consuming industrial enterprises in the daily management process, then today will not be a sudden winter before the sudden arrival of a foot on the brakes. This brake is too strong, not only affecting the lives of ordinary residents, but also causing unnecessary public opinion disputes in society.
At the same time, this power cut also allows us to see the real pain of energy transformation, and we must do a good job of regulation and planning in peacetime. Clean energy is a long-term goal, but also a major project that takes decades, and we need to think about it in the long run, not overnight. Taking a radical approach may not achieve the end result we want, but will have some side effects.
Through this curtailment, we must realize that if we want to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, this practice must be completed under the premise of carbon peaking. Our current urgent task is to create favorable conditions for achieving carbon peaking, whether it is industry or enterprises must consciously take the initiative to reduce carbon emissions, improve the quality of carbon emissions, and also on the basis of active emission reduction to achieve industrial transformation, eliminate those high energy consumption and low output industries, in order to create higher economic benefits.
In general, this nationwide power cut has nothing to do with any conspiracy theory. In the short term, because power generation is too expensive, coal is forced to reduce costs. The long-term reason is because the country is actively promoting our development towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and as the requirements for carbon peaking continue to be refined, there will inevitably be a more substantial restriction reform in the future.
I want to say that we must always be vigilant, those low-end manufacturing industries must think clearly and do a good job of transformation planning, and develop towards high-end manufacturing industries with high added value as soon as possible. Only by recognizing the general direction will the business get better and better.
Survival of the fittest is the natural law of the market economy, through such strict power rationing and control capacity measures, both to accelerate industrial upgrading, but also to eliminate backward production capacity.
The era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is coming soon, and all we have to do is learn to adapt and actively make changes.