With Suga's announcement that he has given up his pursuit for re-election as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, the game struggle in Japanese politics is becoming increasingly fierce.
The LDP presidential election will be held on September 17 for the registration of candidates, and on the 29th for voting and voting. So far, Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Administrative Investigation Committee, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Takashi Sanae, Minister in Charge of Administrative Reform Taro Kono, and Acting Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Seiko Noda, have announced their candidacy. On the 15th, Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, announced that he would abandon the election and expressed his support for Kono Taro.
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Japan's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election campaign has begun! Will it shake up the "Abe Aso" system this time?
Professor Liu Jiangyong, former vice president of the Institute of International Relations of Tsinghua University, pointed out that since Shinzo Abe became prime minister of Japan for the second time at the end of 2012, Japan has gradually formed a "Abe Aso" system in the entire security guarantee and foreign policy, and has implemented a series of right-leaning policies. In his view, a key point of view in the Japanese election is whether the "Abe Aso" system will survive or be weakened in the future, or it will undergo subversive changes.
At a time when many candidates are competing for the next prime minister's post, and Japan's political arena is in turmoil and power struggles, the outgoing Suga Yoshihide plans to visit the United States and attend the meeting between the leaders of the united States, Japan, Australia, and India.
"Suga's move is more of a 'performance,' dancing with the United States, and lacks substance." Zhao Hongwei, a professor at Hosei University in Japan and a senior researcher at the Chungyang Institute of Finance at Chinese Min University, said. Liu Jiangyong believes that during Suga's visit to the United States, he will continue to peddle the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific concept," which is actually a continuation of the established diplomatic line during the Abe period.
Yoshihide Suga, the 99th Prime Minister of Japan and president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
They want to use the "four-sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India to contain China
As he stepped down from office, in the face of Japan's repeated COVID-19 epidemics, Suga still plans to rush to the United States. He will visit Washington on the 23rd of this month and attend a summit held by the United States, Japan, Australia, and India on the 24th. That's just five months after his last visit to the United States.
Zhao Hongwei said that it is rare for a prime minister to visit other countries at the end of his term of office in Japanese politics. "The initiative of the US-Japan summit meeting lies with the US side, and Suga's visit to the US is more likely to be a response to the US arrangement." He said. On March 12 this year, the leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia and India held an online meeting. According to the joint statement of the meeting, the leaders of the four countries plan to meet face-to-face during the year.
On September 14, local time, the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly opened. Starting on the 21st of this month, leaders and politicians from more than 80 countries will gather in New York during the epidemic. "For Biden, who is busy dealing with domestic affairs such as the rebound of the epidemic and inflation, it is a good option to use the time window of this un united Nations General Assembly to hold the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the united States, Japan, Australia, and India." Zhao Hongwei said.
People wear masks on the streets of Tokyo, Japan, on July 8.
Liu Jiangyong pointed out that Suga's visit to the United States is an attempt to use the "four-sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India to contain China. "Since the prime minister's term of office has entered the countdown, Suga's visit to the United States at this time is not mainly to gain political capital in Japan, but to faithfully implement the foreign strategy of the Abe period and consolidate, continue and develop Abe's original diplomatic line." He believes that during his visit to the United States, Suga is bound to be keen to peddle the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific concept."
For some time now, Japan has closely followed the United States and frequently hyped up the Taiwan Strait issue, and some politicians have made outrageous remarks one after another, challenging China's bottom line and seriously undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait region. Liu Jiangyong held that during his visit to the United States, Suga may have tried to include Taiwan-related issues in the joint statement of the current meeting of the leaders of the four countries, or promoted the establishment of a certain coordination method within the "quadrilateral mechanism" and the formation of certain common policies to achieve the purpose of interfering in and stirring up trouble in the Taiwan Strait.
"Epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are currently urgent priorities for countries around the world." Liu Jiangyong said that if Japan continues to indulge in playing the geostrategic card and tries in vain to encircle and suppress China, it will not only run counter to Japan's own national interests, but is also doomed to be unworkable.
The leader of the big electorate polls is still hard to say that he has the chance to win
On September 3, Suga announced that he had abandoned his election as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, leaving a leadership vacuum in Japanese politics. After Suga withdrew, the LDP's power struggle pattern underwent new changes. At present, the election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party has formed a situation in which Kono Taro, Kishida Fumio, Takashi Sanae and Seiko Noda are competing in many ways, and the competition is becoming fierce. On the 17th, this election war will officially begin.
Minister for Administrative Reform of Japan Taro Kono.
According to a number of Japanese media polls, Kono Taro is considered "the most suitable person to serve as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party." But in Liu's view, although Kono Taro leads the polls, it is still difficult for him to say that he has a chance to win given the division of Japanese political factions and the overall conservative political atmosphere.
After World War II, the Prime Minister of Japan was nominated by a political party and elected by vote of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. In general, the head of the majority party in The National Assembly holds the post of Prime Minister. Currently, the Diet of Japan is controlled by the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, becoming the new president of the LDP means taking over as the new prime minister.
The voters who voted for the LDP's presidential election were divided into two groups: members of party committees throughout Japan and members of the LDP's Diet. Therefore, the candidates must not only win the support of their own members of parliament, but also strive to win the favor of local party members and party friends.
Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan and former Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Political Investigation Committee.
Zhao Hongwei introduced: The LDP's tradition of seniority ranking is deeply rooted; Kishida Fumio has deep seniority and a steady work style; in history, there have been few direct festivals with various factions in the party; and there are basic plates such as the "Kishida faction," and he is a popular candidate for the new president of the LDP.
"A considerable number of Japanese parliamentarians are older and conservative in their political style, and their support is Kishida Fumio's greatest strength. Among the young parliamentarians, many are optimistic about Kono Taro and Takashi Sanae, and if these two people can fully mobilize the popularity of the party, they may also have a chance to win by surprise. Zhao Hongwei said.
Zhao Hongwei also pointed out that Kono Taro graduated from Georgetown University in the United States, fluent in English, and made good use of social media to promote publicity, which won the favor of many young Japanese people. But at the same time, he has a strong personality and a straight heart, and is not a traditional Japanese politician. Some LDP top brass believe that Kono is unfit to be prime minister or that he is not qualified for the position for long.
People wear masks as they travel around Shinjuku Station in Tokyo, Japan, on July 8.
According to the analysis of Japanese public opinion, unlike Suga Yoshihide, who relied on the support of the main factions a year ago, the competition in the party leadership election is open, and it is difficult to unify opinions within the main factions, which may allow faction members to "vote on their own."
Zhao Hongwei pointed out that the LDP presidential election will soon usher in the election of the Japanese House of Representatives. For young and strong parliamentarians with a relatively weak electoral foundation, the most important priority is which new president is more favorable to his own election of parliamentarians and his job.
"The current Japanese political scene is very volatile"
Since the end of 2012, the Hosoda faction, the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, where Abe was born and controlled, and the Aso faction, the second largest faction led by Taro Aso, the current deputy prime minister and finance minister, have been working together to influence the LDP and Japanese politics.
"The current Japanese political scene is very devious and changeable. Next, the "combination of vertical and horizontal" within the LDP will be fierce. Liu Jiangyong believes that the "Abe Aso" system, which is a product of the rise of Japan's right-wing forces, will play a key role behind the scenes in the LDP presidential election. Combining Taro Kono's previous performances, he said, the "Abe Aso" system could be hit if he is elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, although Kono Taro belongs to the "Aso faction", he cannot get the unanimous vote of the hondo valve, but relies on the support of the opposing faction with Abe Shinzo.
People wear masks to board the subway in Tokyo, Japan, on April 23.
On the 15th of this month, Shigeru Ishiba, who had earlier been more vocal in the polls, announced that he would not participate in the LDP presidential election and would support Kono Taro. "Shigeru Ishiba, who had always been at odds with Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso, was determined to support Kono Taro, but in fact wanted to oppose the 'Abe Aso' system." Liu Jiangyong pointed out that after cooperating with Shigeru Ishiba, Kono Taro is expected to get more support from ordinary members of the Liberal Democratic Party and members of the Young Zhuang faction. But at the same time, he may also be suppressed by forces such as the "Hosoda faction".
Speaking of Kishida Fumio, Liu Jiangyong said that he clearly knows that the key to winning the prime minister's position is to break through the "Abe Aso" system, but this is not an easy task. If Kishida Becomes Japan's next Prime Minister, it will mean that the "Abe Aso" system will be weakened, and there may even be major changes.
Considering the significant influence of Abe and Aso's faction among members of Parliament, Kishida turned his hopes of victory to local party members. At the same time, he is also avoiding directly offending Abe's side, such as recently changing his mouth to say that he "did not consider re-investigating" the Moritomo Gakuen malfeasance case. Liu Jiangyong said.
Takashi Sanae, 60, belongs to the conservative wing of the Liberal Democratic Party. She has always been considered close to Shinzo Abe, with similar policy ideas and highly overlapping circles.
In April 2015, in the House of Representatives of the Japanese Diet, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (second from left) and then-Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Takashi Sanae (second from right) held talks.
"Takaichi Sanae can be said to be a stand-in for Abe. If she is elected, it means that the 'Abe Aso' system will be consolidated, which is the calculation of Abe and others. Liu Jiangyong pointed out that if Kishida Fumio and Kono Taro increased their competition for local party members and party friends, resulting in this part of the vote being diverted, and Takashi Sanae received strong support from Abe Shinzo and other factions, and won the largest total number of votes in the entire market, then Japan would have its first female prime minister.
"Some South Korean media refer to Takashi Sanae as the 'female version of Abe.'" In Liu Jiangyong's view, if Takaichi Sanae comes to power, it is likely to become the second "Suga Yoshihide-style" prime minister, and it is expected to become a faithful successor to the "Abe Line".
Acting Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Seiko Noda.
On September 16, Seiko Noda announced his candidacy. Mr. Liu said Noda's election as LDP president was unlikely, but the move would boost her political profile and help her win the upcoming Elections in Japan's House of Representatives. Zhao Hongwei believes that Noda Seiko may attract the votes of some female party members in the Diet and local governments, which may objectively have an adverse impact on the election of Takashi Sanae.
[Main writer] Gong Chunhui
【Video Clip】Zhou Xinyu
[Moderator] Xie Qingyu
[Photo] Xinhua News Agency
【Author】 Gong Chunhui; Zhou Xinyu; Xie Qingyu
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