Introduction: Logistics is another watershed in 2018: affected by the impact of new retail, the process of power transfer in the supply chain will accelerate. The instant delivery and 2B warehouse distribution market will achieve rapid growth, and the national model of e-commerce logistics will continue to grow, but in the field of standard product supply chain, the proportion of warehouse distribution will become larger and larger, and the transformation trend of industrial trade logistics to digital supply chain will be clearer.
Caption: Zhao Gan, co-founder and CEO of Xiaokuai Technology
In 2017, the proportion of e-commerce in retail has reached 17%, and new retail has become the hottest topic in this year. After entering 2018, the changes in the logistics field have become more drastic, especially since April, the capital market has been increasing, in the express network and the large channel network, Yimi Dida, Dekun, Jumeng have completed financing and debut, and the 1.9 billion US dollar financing of manbang has pushed the logistics industry to a climax.
Under this wave of boom, what is the future direction of the logistics industry? Where are the key opportunities? This article analyzes and sorts out from one of these perspectives. The sharing content comes from the speech of Zhao Gan, CEO of Xiaokuai Technology, at the "2018 Xixi Reunion" network LTL entrepreneur closed-door conference.
——————————————the following is the body of the speech—————————————
All the friends here today are my predecessors, and also came to Dekun, Jumeng, Mabang and other alliance bigwigs and industry leaders, I have learned from you for more than three years, and I am also very honored to have the opportunity to communicate and share with you on the spot, and I am deeply grateful. This year is my fourth year in the logistics industry, and in these four years, we have only done one thing, and that is to realistically explore ways to promote the progress of the logistics industry.
I combed the industry map from LTL, tripartite, express delivery, to urban distribution in the context of new retail, including 2B warehouse allocation, instant delivery and other fields. I hope that through my understanding of the industry, I can help you grasp the effective path that conforms to the development of the logistics + Internet industry and make a relatively accurate judgment on the future of the industry. So, today I share some of the thoughts I have accumulated, and I hope that through my sharing, I can bring you some useful information.
First, the logistics industry status quo analysis and trend prediction
1. The balanced development of B2C express to B2C warehouse with one is the trend of the times
Practitioners in the logistics industry are often asked a question by friends around them: Why is JD.com's logistics experience better than Taobao? To be honest, I didn't think about this problem before, until I saw the sharing of Wang Yongjun, chairman of Anneng, some time ago, that I was suddenly enlightened about this problem.
We look at it in reverse, how can Cainiao, as a company that raises 10 billion yuan, allow Ali's logistics system to lag behind JD.com? In fact, the real reflection behind this is the supply chain difference between the two. Because when we compare the logistics experience between Jingdong and Taobao, we often refer to the difference between buying clothes on Taobao and buying mobile phones on Jingdong. Buy clothes on Taobao, choose the three links and one reach, and then pick up the goods in the seller's own warehouse, which is likely to take 72 hours to deliver; buy a mobile phone on Jingdong, place an order before 11 o'clock, and deliver it before 2 pm. Specifically analyze the difference between the two: one has only one warehouse in the country, which can only be shipped through express delivery orders; the other is a distributed warehouse, which can be delivered out of the nearest warehouse. The root cause of the difference is the attributes of the goods - clothes are non-standard, mobile phones are standard. From another perspective, if we compare Tmall supermarket and JD.com's self-operated part, the logistics experience is similar. But it is precisely because of this difference that there is a differentiated competition for logistics experience in the new retail era.
B2C network express delivery and B2C warehouse allocation are the two mainstream forms of e-commerce logistics at present, and there are obvious differences in the experience of the user, the biggest difference in experience is the timeliness. The network express delivery of a single point nationwide generally takes 72 hours to deliver, while the warehouse distribution mode generally delivers within 24 hours. Of course, the cost difference behind these two models is also relatively large, and the core of the difference is the difference in the characteristics of the supply chain, which corresponds to the standard supply chain and the non-standard product supply chain. Among them, the standard product refers to the product with few SKU items and high sales, such as home appliances, 3C and other explosive products; non-standard products refer to the goods with many SKU items and low sales, such as clothing, food, and daily necessities. At present, the representatives who use online express delivery are Taobao and Jingdong POP platform (third-party settled merchants); the representatives who use the warehouse distribution model are Tmall Supermarket, Jingdong self-operated, Vipshop and so on.
From the volume point of view, the current network express delivery has 70 million singles / day, warehouse with 15 million single / day. Because of the base, the growth rate of the warehouse must be faster. At the same time, from the comparison between Tao and Jingdong, tao is close to 50 million a day, and Jingdong is less than 10 million, and the gap is still very obvious.
2. Multi-level warehouse + instant delivery is the core logistics model of new retail
Since it comes to the B2C warehouse distribution model of e-commerce logistics, we continue to look at the changes in the logistics experience in the context of new retail.
Last year, Alibaba continued to accelerate the integration of offline large supermarkets and chain convenience stores; this year, the acquisition of Ele.me improved the instant delivery system. It can be said that in the user experience side has done a lot of useful promotion, following the launch of hema fresh 30 minutes delivery service, Tmall also launched Tmall liquor 29 minutes up, Tmall supermarket fresh 1 hour up, Tmall flagship store 2 hours up, successfully built a fresh, daily necessities "speed up" service scene. Behind these layouts, they are all to vigorously promote the ecological construction of new retail.
Alibaba Research Institute's definition of new retail is a data-driven pan-retail form centered on consumer experience. In the new retail era, 30 minutes of speed will become the standard, and in the future, daily necessities, physical objects, and even clothing will be reached by what they see. Mobile phone orders (and possibly other devices) are delivered to consumers in 30 minutes, and the delivered goods can even be selected again, and the experience exceeds expectations.
Behind this experience, it is actually the layout of the rookie's socialized warehouse. At present, Cainiao has laid out 50 city warehouses nationwide, and in 2017, in order to solve the problem of merchant warehousing costs, it has laid out regional warehouses in 7 core cities. Now the number of these warehouses has exceeded 150, and the socialized pre-position has reached tens of thousands. At the same time, through the line of store warehouses, it is ensured that "hypermarkets - supermarkets - chain convenience - unmanned shelves" can form a new inventory sharing capability. Based on the warehouse allocation system of these two lines, the global inventory sharing and allocation can be formed through online data, which can truly reduce the cost of warehouse allocation and support the new retail 30-minute speed experience.
This picture shows the growth of the takeaway market in the past few years, which is another explosive growth following the O2O boom in 2014. Although the growth rate has declined in the later period because of the problem of the base, under the momentum of new retail, it is likely to drive the rapid growth of the two major markets of 2C instant delivery and 2B warehouse distribution. Usually, when we talk about urban distribution, we generally refer to the 2B warehouse distribution market and a small number of 2B project distribution. Judging from the hundreds of customers served by the cTMS professional urban distribution management system, without exception, the 2B warehouse distribution field has achieved rapid growth, and some local new retail platforms have even achieved the performance of more than 10,000 daily orders.
3. The digital transformation trend of LTL and vehicle logistics is obvious
Let's look at the network LTL field. This is some data from the statistics of the Institute of Transport and Transportation, which analyzes the LTL and complete vehicles in the main part of road freight. In the past seven years, the overall growth rate of road freight from the volume of express transportation, special lines, and vehicles (as shown in the gray part) is 6%, similar to the national GDP growth rate. The annual growth rate of express delivery in the past 7 years has reached a staggering 40%. So where there is growth, there is a big opportunity. After the market pattern of express delivery has taken shape, in recent years, everyone has looked for opportunities on the express network, and in 2018, there has been an outlet for the large channel of the special line, and it is believed that the network of the three-party vehicle will soon appear in the development of emerging forces such as Manbang and Blessing and the traditional tripartite competition, and soon there will be a new car-free transportation model with a huge volume.
In addition to new retail and e-commerce logistics, in fact, everyone is most exposed to industrial logistics and trade logistics, and they are all doing the role of 3PL transportation. We are a form of logistics that has grown up with industrialization: the earliest is the factory itself to buy a car for transportation, that is, the 1PL era; with the development of offline channels, channel providers began to do their own logistics distribution, that is, the 2PL era; when everyone began to do their own logistics company, it ushered in the stage of rapid development of 3PL. Logistics companies sign contracts from the owner of the goods, receive the goods, and deliver them to the consignee at the agreed time, this model has grown for 20 years, and logistics has gradually become an industry with a professional division of labor.
The seniors present here today may have started to do logistics after the opening of the policy in 1994, and the shortest entry into the industry has been at least 10 years. In such a long time, the service object, whether it is the wholesale market or manufacturer users, the most obvious feeling is that the current customer service is becoming more and more difficult to do, not only the price rises, the quality, timeliness, delivery experience and other requirements are getting higher and higher, so the LTL industry as a whole is more anxious and constantly changing. The essence of this change is the shift of the supply chain power center.
After more than 20 years of development, the transfer of supply chain rights has gone through several major stages: from the initial shortage of supply, the factory has an absolute right to speak, to the market economy channel is king, and has experienced the era of Internet e-commerce, and now it is about to enter the era of new retail. In these big eras, behind it is actually the question of who has the right to speak in the supply chain.
The right to speak in the entire supply chain, because the material is becoming more and more abundant, the entire macro-economy from the supply exceeds the demand, to the supply is far more than demand, the right to speak will eventually shift from the producer to the consumer. Consumers have also evolved from the pursuit of product function as the core appeal to the pursuit of life experience as the core appeal. This change also combines the driving force brought by the development of technology, from the PC era, to the PC Internet, to the mobile Internet, so that we have a new enabling foundation for consumer experience optimization.
One is the change of demand, the other is the evolution of technical support, the combination of these two forces, so that the logistics form from the industrial age of 1PL - 2PL - 3PL, experienced the e-commerce era of B2C network express - B2C warehouse with one, until the current multi-level warehouse + instant delivery system. In this process, the merchant side from the stocking according to experience, to the express delivery of a single point to the whole country, transition to the online and offline integration of data preparation stage.
These merchants are the food and clothing parents of logistics practitioners, and their needs change with the needs of consumers, and the logistics supply capacity needs to be improved. In the era of e-commerce, there is a model of platform logistics, and in the new retail era, this model will develop rapidly. Because there is currently no logistics experience that can meet the needs of leading consumers, the platform can only do it itself. After the platform does it itself, it will increase consumer expectations, and the requirements for logistics service providers will also increase.
From the perspective of enterprise supply chain, new retail is a subversive innovation for the traditional multi-level distribution system. In this process, it has spawned new demands in three aspects of supply chain logistics: 1. Logistics needs to be closer to the terminal and face consumers; 2. Minimize their own inventory; 3. Improve the speed of logistics response.
Since digitalization has become the core driving force of new retail, now the cargo owner has begun to put forward the basic requirements of omni-channel management and full data visualization for the 3PL, and the ability to perform the contract immediately has become the highest weight factor for the current cargo owner to choose a logistics service provider. In the future, all industries will change from B2C to C2M model, the traditional supply chain order from the inside to the outside will be subverted, and the company's R&D, production, marketing, logistics and other activities will take customer data as the driving force and decision-making basis, requiring enterprises to digitally transform the whole value chain. Including the comprehensive upgrading of big data, new technologies, new platforms, new finance, and new manufacturing. In the future, logistics service providers will not only provide moving services.
Second, the industry development and technology application bring us opportunities
Combined with the above analysis, my judgment is that logistics will be a watershed moment in 2018. Affected by the impact of new retail, the process of power transfer in the supply chain will be accelerated, the instant distribution and 2B warehouse distribution market will achieve rapid growth, and the national model of e-commerce logistics will continue to grow, but in the field of standard supply chain, the proportion of warehouse integration will become larger and larger, and the transformation trend of industrial trade logistics to digital supply chain will be more clear.
From the perspective of industry development, urban distribution, tripartite, and network LTL all have clear development directions. City allocation: seize the new retail opportunities to fully embrace the warehouse allocation system. Tripartite: Help manufacturers establish a new supply chain that conforms to the new retail ecology. LTL network: competitive national warehouse distribution system.
There are many predecessors and "second generations" of regional small overlords here today, and in recent years, regional small bully kings have not only explored the road of national network, but also taken a road of self-improvement. I think the current opportunity lies in the establishment of a competitive national warehouse distribution system, including: warehouse, urban distribution network, intra-provincial network, inter-provincial network. Truly realize the local and national cargo, and help local manufacturers and large wholesalers to establish a new supply chain in line with the new retail ecology.
Let's look at several sets of data: the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that in 2017, the total amount of social logistics in the country was 252.8 trillion yuan, and the total cost of social logistics was 12.1 trillion yuan, of which the transportation cost was 6.6 trillion yuan, the storage cost was 3.9 trillion yuan, and the management cost was 1.6 trillion yuan. At present, express delivery in the field of road transport has taken shape, express transportation and large channels are accelerating the construction, and a super-large integrated logistics network based on three parties is also brewing. The multi-level warehouse system has awakened the second spring of warehousing and is experiencing the second "Spring and Autumn Warring States". Railways, aviation and waterways will be full of vitality in the next five years of the Belt and Road Initiative and the realization of the Chinese dream, taking advantage of the technological inflection point to accelerate the era of global integration.
We have entered the logistics industry from the Internet and have been studying and exploring the power of technology to boost the industry. After the arrival of the technical inflection point, there are often huge opportunities, and after analyzing the complete path of several phenomenon-level products (tens of billions of DOLLARs) in recent years, the conclusion has been drawn: the technical inflection point is coming, and the infrastructure is relatively mature to find dimensionality reduction capabilities and provide more than 10 times the user experience. On this basis, from the business model itself or the external environment to cut in, find growth momentum, carry out saturation attacks, create phenomenon-level products, and lead the outlet. There are seven or eight definite words or adjectives here, which shows that it is not an easy task to grasp the explosive power of technology. Today, because of the time relationship, this law has the opportunity to be explained in detail.
I believe in the power of technology. Five years later, some applications of new energy autonomous trucks and handling robots will have a huge impact on the cost structure of the logistics industry. At that time, the competitive landscape will face great uncertainty, but it is still far away. From the perspective of supply chain fintech that we are doing now, with the improvement of industry infrastructure in the next 5 years, new technologies will have the soil for rapid development.
Let's look at several specific industry infrastructure construction, including collection upgrades, warehouse integration, integrated logistics service providers, and opportunities that can be applied in the future may appear in big data risk control, new warehouse order pledge play under the integration of warehouses, and supply chain financial upgrades based on blockchain technology under C2M outlets. These infrastructures will form a partially mature soil in 2018, 2020 and 2022, allowing new models and products to take root and gain opportunities for rapid growth. Of course, if we can seize such an opportunity, enterprises will gain a first-mover advantage in the competition and ride the wind.
I share so much today, all of the above points, the mature part belongs to our team, because the long-term joint exploration and research, so that our team to gain some understanding of the industry. Immature or somewhat far-fetched, just some of the divergent thinking of individuals, expressed in today's occasion of learning and exchange, for your reference only, thank you!
Photo: "2018 Xixi Reunion" network LTL entrepreneur closed-door meeting