The harvest progress and export inspection volume are lower than expected, and the US corn shock adjustment

On October 25, the CBOT December U.S. Corn Futures Contract (ZCZ1) oscillated, closing at 538 cents/bushel, compared with the previous session closing at 538.25 cents/bushel, down 0.05%. The trading volume is 90,200 lots, and the open interest is 601,000 lots, compared with 599,300 lots in the previous trading day. Weekly export data was not satisfactory, but the harvest rate was lower than expected and the US wheat was strongly supported, and the US corn shock adjustment. Analysts at international derivatives think tanks believe that on the supply side, the corn harvest progress is slightly lower than the market expectation of 65%, and some institutions have lowered the 2022 US corn planting area estimates; the weather is favorable, as of the end of last week, the brazilian first stubble corn sowing progress in 2021/22 was 56.6%, faster than 42.8% in the same period last year, and the uncertainty of fertilizer procurement may affect the planting of brazilian second stubble corn; the progress of corn sowing in the new season in Argentina has slowed down, and the corn sales progress is slightly faster than the same period last year. On the demand side, ethanol production increased to its highest level since June 2019. In terms of exports, the us corn export inspection volume is less than expected, China's corn imports from the United States in September increased year-on-year, and Brazilian corn exports in October are expected to increase, but the average export volume in the first four sundays is lower than the same period last year. The U.S. corn shock is strong, pay attention to the 60-day moving average competition.

This article originated from the international derivatives think tank