Since mid-August, Thailand's political situation has been volatile, with clouds and fog, and outsiders cannot see its true appearance. In the recent week, Thai politics has been hit by another earthquake, starting with Tamana, secretary general of the Citizens' Power Party and assistant minister of agriculture and cooperatives, the ruling coalition's largest party, and his co-ordinators, who secretly launched a "backlash" campaign against six members of Prayuth's cabinet, taking advantage of the distrust debate launched by the opposition coalition against six members of Prayuth's cabinet, causing Prayut to face its biggest crisis since the coup came to power in 2014. On September 4, Tamana and other politicians were wiped out by the powerful power of the Prayuth-Pavé-Anupong clique and had to surrender, and Prayut survived the parliamentary vote of no confidence and continued to serve as prime minister. Unexpectedly, just five days later, the aftershocks broke out again, and Tamana and his friend, Assistant Minister of Labor Nalemon, were expelled from the cabinet with a holy decree of September 8, and he himself decided to break with the Prayuth-Pavey-Anupong clique once and for all, to part ways and form a new party. In just a few days, the situation in Thai politics has been overwhelming. The reason for this series of events is worth playing with. What role do kings, Thaksin, Pavey, Prayuth, and Tamana play? Prayuth, Ba Wei and Anupong's "Triple Brothers" are really stronger than Jin, as solid as a rock? Is there a "secret deal" between Tamana and Thaksin? As the next general election draws closer, the follow-up impact of the "collapse of Pakistan" will continue to ferment, reshaping the Thai political landscape and determining the direction of Thai politics in the future. It is no exaggeration to say that this event will go down in the annals of Thailand's political struggle.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="5" > the city is full of storms, and the ruling party is plotting a "coup"</h1>
In mid-August, the opposition coalition decided to launch The third parliamentary no-confidence debate since Prayut's inauguration as Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Health, Minister Chalenchai of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Minister of Transport Sasyan, Minister of Labour Sucha, Minister of Digital Economy and Society Tse-vu, on the grounds that the Prayuth government's inability to fight the epidemic has led to the decline of the national economy and people's livelihood, and called it the "final battle". In fact, although the distrust debate itself is important, the "incriminating evidence" of the Prayuth government that opposition MPs have gathered through various means (especially intelligence means) will, to a certain extent, lower the basis of public opinion and shake the foundation of its governance. More important, however, is the parliamentary vote of no confidence after the debate. If the total number of votes cast by the subject of the debate does not exceed more than half of the members of the House of Representatives, the resignation shall be imposed.
The total number of members of Thailand's House of Representatives should be 500, and after thanton-led New Future Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in early 2020, members of the party's executive committee were ruled out of MPs, and the total number of deputies is currently 482. That is to say, if there is no confidence in the debate vote, the number of votes obtained should exceed 241 to pass the pass. Judging from the distribution of parliamentarians, the ruling party coalition has an absolute advantage with 276 votes, and the opposition coalition and other small and medium-sized parties that can win only 206 votes, and at least 36 votes are needed to succeed.
From the tradition of Thai politics, it is common for opposition lawmakers to secretly help cabinet members, commonly known as "cobras", but it is extremely rare for ruling party lawmakers to defect and overthrow cabinet members. Although the Constitution provides that deputies themselves have the right to vote, their political parties have no right to interfere. However, most political parties will summon their own members of parliament before voting, unify their thinking, give face-to-face instructions, and make demands, so as to avoid individual parliamentarians disobeying the resolutions of political parties, "prolonging the prestige of others and destroying their own morale." For example, before the debate began, on August 30, The Leader of the Pheu Thai Party, The Leader of the Pheu Thai Party, demanded in writing that MPs "must vote no confidence in 6 cabinet members, leave of absence is prohibited, and those who violate the party's resolutions may be expelled from the party in serious circumstances."
Given the predominant number of members of the coalition of ruling parties and the prohibition of internal orders within each party, there should be no doubt that Prayut and six other cabinet members successfully passed the vote of no confidence. Unexpectedly, from mid-August, a highly unusual political conspiracy began to unfold. Some "political lobbyists" began to shuttle back and forth between the homes of the leading figures of the small and medium-sized parties, with three inches of uncorrupted tongue, supplemented by heavy money, and did their best to persuade the small and medium-sized parties on the fringes between the ruling coalition and the opposition alliance to present Their precious votes of no confidence to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha at the time of the vote. The opposition coalition bought tickets heavily to try to bring down Prayuth, which is not difficult to understand. However, the paradox of this political conspiracy is that among the "Zonghengjia" who intend to overthrow Prayuth, there are people from the Citizen Power Party, the largest party in the ruling party alliance! The Civic Power Party, which nominated Prayut Chan-o-Chauth as prime minister, is seen as the foundation of the Prayuth-Pave-Anupong clique, and it is strange that some people now want to "get rid of Prayuth and then hurry up". Not only that, but it was revealed that about 40 of the 119 current MPs of the Civic Power Party were ready to vote no confidence in Prayuth. If this is the case, Prayut will receive less than 241 votes and will have to resign. This explosive news quickly spread in Thai society, completely stirring up the entire Thai political arena.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="78" > Tamana: "Pour the order"</h1>
"There is no impermeable wall in the world", especially in Thai politics, where true and false news is flying. Word soon reached Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-chak in the Civic Power Party's conspiracy to plot a "coup." Prayuth immediately sent a message to his "pro-big brother" and the leader of the Civic Power Party, Vice Premier Ba Wei, asking about the matter. According to Thai media reports, on August 30, the management of the Civic Power Party held a meeting at the official residence of Pavey, and Pavey read out a message sent to him by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha: "Why don't the parliamentarians support me? What's the reason? What am I doing wrong? If I am not supported to continue to work, who am I going to make prime minister? I work so hard, who am I going to take over? On the one hand, Ba Wei appeased Prayuth, saying that they were all empty rumors, and on the other hand, he also earnestly and solemnly demanded that the members of the party should not play with fire, neither bribe small parties with heavy money, let alone be introverted, kill each other, and overthrow the prime minister.
I thought the matter would be over, but after the distrust debate officially began on August 31, the incident quickly fermented. Many sources have publicly revealed that the mastermind behind the conspiracy to "coup" is Tamana, secretary general of the Civic Power Party and assistant minister of agriculture and cooperatives, who has just been in office for less than two months. What's more, it was claimed that Tamana had secretly secretly conspired with the leaders of the "one-vote mini-party" congregation and informed them that King Rama X intended to change the prime minister, that he was acting on his own orders, and that he had asked the smaller parties to cooperate with the "anti-Ba-Ba operation". The whistleblowers said that the reason why Tamana dared to plot to overthrow Prime Minister Prayut Because he had always hoped to get Prayuth to be promoted to minister, but he was repeatedly disappointed, this time taking the opportunity to retaliate against Prayut. If successful, he would be appointed prime minister and himself the minister of the interior. If not, it will also make Prayut realize the seriousness of the problem and the tamana forces that cannot be underestimated, and distrust that the cabinet will be adjusted as soon as possible after the debate is over, and it will be "corrected".
Tamana, who was suddenly pushed to the cusp of the storm, had to accept media interviews with her scalp. He categorically denied the false rumors involving him, saying that they were all rumors created by some young people. At the same time, he also said: He was born poor, and he was satisfied to have today's glory and wealth. He has experienced great winds and waves, his life and death have been looked down upon, and he is not obsessed with the high-ranking official Houlu and competing for fame and profit in the cabinet, which is not his own style of behavior. However, when asked by the media if he had communicated with the prime minister, he said that he only communicated with his party leader, General Ba Wei. Regarding the rumors of "falling by order", he responded with a straight face, "Do not involve the royal family, politics is politics, do not involve the royal family." Finally, the media asked him whether, as secretary general of the Civic Power Party, would he ask all members of the party to vote for the prime minister? He said: "Everything should naturally be subject to the instructions of the party leader, and only he should take the lead." However, the conversation turned and he said: "However, we cannot control the personal will of the parliamentarians, who are experienced, experienced and have the right to vote freely." For Tamana's remarks, the media generally interpreted it as "even if Tamana did not direct the rebellion behind the scenes, there is a possibility of being framed, but the rift between him (and the Civic Power MPs) and Prayuth is also obvious."
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="79" > Prayuth: Facing unprecedented challenges</h1>
In the face of indistinguishable revelations, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha clearly chose to "believe in what he has, not to believe in nothing", and showed unprecedented strictness. First of all, I took the initiative to talk with the parliamentarians as never before. As long as it is not the number of debates against him by the opposition, he spends most of his time in the Prime Minister's reception room on the third floor of parliament, opening the door for several days in a row to receive Citizens Force MPs who have come to participate in the distrust debate. This was unprecedented, and he had always kept his distance from the MPs, some of whom had not even spoken to the Prime Minister. Some of the MPs met with the Prime Minister in batches, either to cheer him on or to take advantage of the opportunity to ask the Prime Minister to take care of the projects they were promoting. There's also a little vignette here. On September 2, during the parliamentary session, during the parliamentary session, Visan, a member of the Pheu Thai Party, publicly accused Prime Minister Prayuth of handing out a "bonus" of 5 million baht to some members of the Civic Power Party in the Prime Minister's Reception Room on the third floor of the parliament, hoping that they would vote for themselves, causing an uproar at the scene. Civic Power MP Vera stood up in anger and refute Wei Shan because he had just come out of the Prime Minister's reception room after talking to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. He said that he and the prime minister exchanged people's livelihood projects, such as transferring the water of the Yong River to the Chao Phraya River. Currently, The President of the Diet Kawa. Lipai has organized a special committee to investigate the matter. In short, Prayuth is seeking support from within the Civic Forces party.
Second, the unprecedented initiative to communicate with the media. Prime Minister Prayut Has always been "vocal" with the media, reprimanding journalists from time to time after the coup d'état took office, and at the beginning of this year, negative news broke out about spraying reporters' eyes with disinfectant alcohol. However, this time, he changed the previous trend and took the initiative to go to the media with a pleasant face, and interviewed them many times. He clearly wanted to express his position through the media to his opponent, Tamana and others, as well as to the concerned people. First, if anyone really wants to change the prime minister by vote, it is not a gentleman's act, because the time has not yet come. Second, they will not be affected by this matter and will dissolve the parliament and hold general elections in advance, nor will they be forced to adjust the cabinet because of their "forced palace" and fulfill their wishes. Third, only one of themselves has the opportunity to visit the king and pray for official duties, and if someone "corrects" himself for personal gain, it is a very evil crime.
A reporter asked Prime Minister Prayut Whew whether he had communicated with Tamana about the incident. Prayuth showed a dismissive attitude towards this: "Why talk to him? I am the prime minister, and if I go to talk to him, will I not lose my dignity? There is no festival between me and him, because I let him come to work in the government, what can I have with him? What is the contradiction between adults and children? If there is a contradiction, I will solve it myself. ”
Third, the solidarity of the "Oriental Tiger Triple Brothers" (Prayut-Bawi-Anupong) is emphasized as never before, and the love is stronger than that of Jin. Perhaps because of a widely circulated version of a "coup" in which Tamana led the crowd to overthrow Prayuth by a vote of no confidence, elected Pavey as acting prime minister, and in the next general election Ba wei ran as the leader of the Civic Power Party as a full candidate for prime minister, and finally officially became prime minister. After Bawi became prime minister, Tamana naturally became the "grand master" of the country, replacing Anupong shang as minister of the interior. If this is the case, then Ba Wei has clearly become the same camp as Tamana, leaving aside the second brother Anupong and the third brother Prayut Chanut. Some political observers have also suggested that Bawi may have acquiesced to Tamana's "coup" in order to fulfill his "prime ministerial dream."
I don't know what Prayuth really thinks about this, but in times of crisis, he repeatedly mentioned that the relationship between the three brothers is rock solid. Prayut told reporters: "No one can hurt me, no one loves each other like the three of us." We were born and died together, guarding the frontier, and the guns and bullets were all coming. From the first day I enlisted, they were my superiors, and we ate and lived together, studied and trained together. Since then, and to this day, we have kept in touch with each other and respected each other. The reason why I am able to have today is because of the teachings and guidance of my two elder brothers. There are many more things about our three brothers that you all don't know! ”
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="80" > Ba Wei: Big Brother out of the horse, put the mess to rest</h1>
Tamana and Prayuth's "air-to-air moves" are increasingly insoluble, and the vote of no confidence on the morning of September 4 was like a "time bomb", ushering in unpredictable upheavals in Thai politics. It was not until their common eldest brother (the boss of the "Triple Brothers" and the leader of the Civic Forces Party) General Ba Wei personally intervened that the crisis was lifted.
On the morning of 3 September, Admiral Pavey urgently convened an emergency meeting of all members of Parliament in the conference room on the 6th floor of the Houses of Parliament. He was escorted to the Parliament Building by Nalemon, assistant minister of labor and a close friend of Tamana's, where Tamana and the others were already waiting solemnly to greet him. On the way to the conference room, reporters asked Ba Wei about his attitude. Ba Wei, who had inconvenient legs and feet, hurried to the road, shouting as he walked, "If the prime minister does not do it, I will not do it!" Tamana didn't say a word, followed. The emergency meeting lasted only 8 minutes, and Ba Wei mainly emphasized the unity of the party. He then stepped out of the conference room and told reporters that everything was a rumor and that the Civic Power Party remained rock-solid.
The real resolution of the crisis was in the afternoon of the same day. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Interior Minister Anupong traveled to the Bawi residence for a meeting with Tamana and dozens of other Civic Power MPs. According to the parliamentarians present, the media were not allowed to enter at that time, and all the parliamentarians present were required to turn in their mobile phones to avoid being photographed or recorded. Tamana looked flustered, her voice trembling, folded her hands, and apologized to Prayuth. Prayuth also folded his hands in salute, but his eyes did not look at Tamana. Another noteworthy detail is that annupont and Ba wei never made eye contact that day.
Tamana is said to have told Prayut that he did so because of the long-standing grievances of lawmakers of the Civic Power Party. Parliamentarians believe that the Prime Minister rejects his own party's MPs thousands of miles away, and even treats MPs from other parties better than his own party. MPs from other parties sometimes ask the Prime Minister for approval of projects, and the Prime Minister approves them, but the MPs of the Civic Force Party do not enjoy the same treatment, and in the long run, the MPs have no political achievements and will not be able to win the next general election. It is hoped that the Prime Minister will be able to contact the parliamentarians regularly in the future and strengthen contacts and communication. At the same time, Tamana also said that all lawmakers of the Civic Power Party will vote of confidence in the prime minister, giving the prime minister the highest number of votes. Prime Minister Prayut replied that it was not necessary to be the highest, as long as it was the same as other ministers.
On the morning of September 4, parliament voted as scheduled, and Prayut did not receive the highest number of votes as Tamana had promised, but instead came in last out of 6 with 208 votes of no confidence. With more than half of the 264 votes of confidence, this result does not affect Prayut Chan-o-cha's continued tenure as prime minister.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" Data-track="81" > aftershock erupts: Tamana suddenly leaves her job</h1>
Just two days after the distrust debate, Prime Minister Prayut abruptly decided to resume an offline cabinet meeting on September 7 (a video conference that has been held since July 6). Due to the "upside down incident" in Thailand, the media naturally paid special attention to Prayuth and Tamana who attended the meeting. After not meeting for a long time, the ministers met again offline, calling friends and friends, booing and greeting warmth, which was particularly lively. Tamana sat next to Assistant Minister of Health Sati, and as they were talking and laughing, Prayuth passed in front of them. The two of them got up and performed ten salutes, but Prayuth only returned the salute to Sati, ignoring Tamana, and the scene was extremely embarrassing. Subsequently, the Minister of the Interior, Anupong, passed by, and the two of them stood up again to salute. The media noticed that the fingers of Anupon's right hand lightly touched Tamana's ten palms, but his eyes were on Sati, greeting him warmly and without any communication with Tamana. During the meeting, Tamana also kept his head down most of the time, as if he was worried. After the meeting, a reporter wanted to interview him, but he politely refused with a bad throat. At the same time, Ba Wei was also asked by reporters, "Will Tamana resign as secretary general of the Civic Power Party?" "Will Pheu Thai and Civic Power join forces?" "Does Uncle Ba Wei still want to be prime minister?" Ba Wei's answer was the same: "No! No! No! ”
On the afternoon of September 9, after attending the Seventh Leaders' Meeting on Economic Cooperation in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Prime Minister Prayut left the Prime Minister's Office early and went to the residence of Deputy Prime Minister Pavey, where they talked in secret for more than an hour before Prayuth left for a hospital inspection. While listening to the report, the ministry called down to report to Prayut, and Tamana announced his resignation from the cabinet at the Parliament Building. Just a few minutes later, the Official Gazette website published the imperial decree signed by King Rama X on 8 September, announcing that "in accordance with the prime minister's courtesy, for the benefit of the country and in accordance with the powers conferred by article 171 of the Constitution, Tamana, assistant minister of agriculture and cooperatives, and nalemon, assistant minister of labour, are dismissed from their cabinet positions.".
So, was Tamana the first to resign, or was he removed from office by the king first? Tamana explained to the public that she decided to resign after consulting with her family on September 8 and wrote her resignation letter on the same day, but her personal assistant only submitted it on September 9. However, Deputy Prime Minister Vesanu, who is in charge of legal affairs, said that the king's royal decree came into effect at 00:00 on September 8, and it was natural that the king was dismissed from his post first.
Leaving aside the question of whether Tamana voluntarily resigned or was removed, there is no way to know whether his preemptive announcement of his resignation a few minutes before the Publication of the King's Decree on the National Gazette website was related to the secret conversation between Prayuth and Pavey. However, from his resignation declaration, it is not difficult to find that the contradictions between him and Prayuth have become irreconcilable, which is the most important reason why he cannot continue to serve in the cabinet. When journalists asked, was the inability to work with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha a significant reason for resigning? Tamana replied, "The Tao is not the same. He admitted that Prayuth did not accept his apology on the afternoon of September 3, which made him very uncomfortable. Because he had already told Prayut Chan a reasonable reason, but to no avail. He also took the initiative to tell reporters that in fact, he had asked the party leader of Ba Wei as early as September 4, hoping to resign from September 6, but was stopped by Ba Wei. However, after thinking about it, he finally violated the instructions of the party leader and made the decision to resign. As for the relationship with the "triple brothers", Tamana only said that he still loved Ba Wei as much as ever, and the other two did not mention it, saying, "Not to break up, but I have chosen my own path." ”
Tamana said: He is dedicated to the country, for religion, for the king, for the people, and puts the interests of the country first, but since he took office in the cabinet, the environment and atmosphere of the government are far lower than imagined, so he hopes to return to the original point and become a parliamentarian. "I want to build a strong political system for the sake of the country, not for certain groups of people," he said. In recent months, I have been thinking that I should pay more attention to the eyes of the people than to serve others. I have decided that I will take a new type of political path, with the interests of the country and the people as the starting point, and I will fight bravely in the political arena. If I have the opportunity to return to power again, I will do my duty for the country. ”
Intriguingly, he said that although he was still the secretary general of the Civic Power Party and was still considering whether to resign from the post, he would never step into the party department again. I moved from my "hometown", the original "hometown" is very warm, and now I have to consider whether I should build a new home. The author understands that the "hometown" he refers to should be the Pheu Thai Party, who once ran for parliament, and the meaning of "building a new home" is to set up another portal and establish a new party.
Regarding Tamana's sudden resignation, whether it was King Prayuth to remove him from his post or whether he voluntarily resigned, Prayuth's answer was simple and crude: "Anyway, he is no longer here!" How it came and how it got there, I won't answer. I didn't tell anyone, it was up to me, I did what I wanted to do. My reason is my reason! ”
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="82" > several questions worth scrutinizing</h1>
As of this writing, the incident still occupies an important part of Thailand's major media, after all, it is the biggest political turmoil since praying coup d'état came to power in 2014. On closer inspection, this incident does have a lot to consider.
One is the role played by King Rama X in this event. Is it true that Tamana secretly co-opted a small party to overthrow Prayuth on the grounds that King Rama X intended to change the prime minister? In late July, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha visited the King alone, and the next day in an interview, he made it clear that he would complete his term, would not resign, and would not dissolve Parliament early to hold a general election, indicating that he had received the King's explicit support. It is precisely because of this that Prayuth dares to tell reporters, "I alone can see the king for official business." However, in the first half of the year, when Tamana celebrated his birthday, he also received a flower basket from the king. With Tamana's connections throughout the government and the opposition, he and the king may have established secret communication channels, but "the king intends to change the prime minister" is not unfounded. The author boldly speculates that if it were not for the blessing of the king's holy will, Tamana would probably not have eaten the bear's heart and leopard's guts, and dared to plot to overthrow Prayuth in this way. If this is the case, King Rama X, on the one hand, appeases Prayut Chan-o-cha and keeps him at ease on the prime minister's throne, while on the other hand tries to use Tamana's hand to force Prayuth to resign by means of a parliamentary vote. The king's true intentions deserve careful play.
However, when this was revealed, Prayut was furious and sent a message to the king no later than 7 September, asking him to remove Tamana from his post. Did Prayuth's act also mean to test the king? The king quickly approved Prayuth's request for a royal decree, and the speed with which he reacted was breathtaking. Is the king also deliberately stating that he has nothing to do with Tamana and will never stand behind him and make an enemy of Prayuth?
The second is the role that Thaksin played in this incident. On September 3, the famous anti-king leader Song Sa. Through his personal social media, Jianm publicly stated that there must have been a "deal" between Thaksin and Tamana in the overthrow of Prayuth. Assistant Permanent Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, Sesakon. Adatahorn claimed that according to intelligence, a person with the initials T as far away as Dubai had paid to bribe the MPs to vote no confidence in Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Tamana has a lot of ties to Thaksin, and his political mentor in politics was Thaksin's contemporaries during his time at the Preparatory Military School, Admiral Daron Intrata. Under Dailon's guidance, Tamana joined Thaksin and ran for election as a Pheu Thai mp, an old acquaintance of Thaksin. Not long ago, Thaksin affectionately called Tamana "little brother" in a live online videocast, and his words were respectful to him, which made people curious about their relationship. On August 17, far-reaching party publicly stated that the far-forward party had originally targeted the leader of the Civic Power party, Deputy Prime Minister Bawi, and assistant minister Tamana, secretary general, but the Pheu Thai party in the Thaksin camp said that the "black material" of Bawi and Tamana had expired and did not agree to include them on the list. That night, Thaksin criticized the Far Advance Party for its "political naivety, like a child, who began to complain when he was not satisfied," and his explanation for not including Ba Wei and Tamana in the distrust debate was: "The core of today's government is Prayuth, and it should be concentrated on attacking Prayuth." And Ba Wei now has no supervision of any practical affairs except for the position of deputy prime minister, what is the use of scolding him? What's the use of scolding Tamana? ”。 All of these circumstances indicate that Thaksin does intend to maintain friendly relations with Tamana. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Thaksin also played a certain role in Tamana's "operation to overthrow Palestine". After all, as long as Prayut is prime minister, Thaksin's hopes of returning home are almost zero. In order to achieve the goal of returning to China, forcing Prayut to resign is the only way.
The third is the role played by Ba Wei in this incident. Ba Wei is currently in a dual role, not only the core figure and leading big brother of the "Prayuth-Bawi-Anupong" group, but also the leader and leader of the Civic Power Party, the largest party in the ruling coalition. In Tamana's style of dealing with the world, it is very unlikely that he will bypass the party leader Ba Wei to carry out the "operation of the ba ba". Ba Wei should have more or less understood Tamana's plan, but why didn't he intervene early to stop Tamana? Why not send an early warning message to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-chau? Instead, it was only when Prayuth responded strongly and Tamana clearly had the upper hand that he personally went out to calm the conflict. Why does Prayuth emphasize the love of the "Triple Brothers" more than Jinjian, inseparable? Is it a reminder that Pavey does not forget his original intention? Why did Anupong not make eye contact with Ba Wei on the afternoon of September 3, and was he already estranged? It is said that on August 11, Ba Wei's birthday, the "three brothers" had dinner together, and there was a burst of laughter in the audience, and Ba Wei said: "If I want to be a long time ago!" On the afternoon of September 3, Prayut also put his arm around Ba Wei's shoulder and smiled and asked him: "Do you really want to be prime minister?" As analyzed above, if Tamana succeeds in the "coup", it is very likely that Ba Wei will be elected as prime minister interim, and the next general election will directly run as the candidate for the prime minister of the Civic Power Party and take the position of prime minister with a straight face, which may be the reason why Ba Wei is uncertain.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="83" > the nature and future direction of the event</h1>
The author believes that the essence of this incident is actually a concentrated outbreak of long-standing dissatisfaction within the Civic Forces Party against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Minister of Internal Affairs Anupong against the background of the next general election, and it is also Tamana's helpless move to not pay attention to Prayuth's demand for personal promotion.
As we all know, the Civic Power Party is a political party that was temporarily established in 2018 to ensure Prayut Chan-o's continued presidency. After the 2019 general election, the Civic Power Party successfully led the formation of the cabinet, and Prayut Wasuth was re-elected as prime minister. It must be noted that the main reason why the Civic Power Party was able to gain voter support at the beginning of its existence and become the second largest party in parliament after the Pheu Thai Party was that Prayuth had a strong appeal at the time. That is to say, if praying not for Prayut agreeing to be nominated by the Civic Power Party as a candidate for prime minister, the Civic Power Party's general election results would not have been so beautiful.
It is precisely for this reason that in the allocation of cabinet ministers, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha firmly controls important seats such as the deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, the minister of internal affairs, the minister of defense, and the minister of foreign affairs, and does not allow the Civic Power Party to interfere. In July 2020, the backbone politicians of the Civic Power Party successfully "forced the palace", and the "Four Princes" economic team under Vice Prime Minister Songqi withdrew from the party and resigned from the cabinet minister. Some senior members of the Civic Power Party thought that they could fill the positions of finance minister and energy minister vacated by the departure of the "four princes", but Prayuth ignored its demands and selected professionals to fill the vacancies. In February 2021, the Thailand Criminal Court handed down judgment on the case of the People's Democratic Reform Commission (PDRT) in 2013-2014 in an attempt to overthrow the Yingluck government, according to Natta Pong of the Civic Power Party. Tisuvan (Minister of Education), Putipong. Brunaka (Minister of Digital Economy and Society) thus lost its ministerial seat. Fearing that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha would arrange for a non-party person to take over the vacant ministerial seat, the Civic Forces Party immediately launched a campaign to sign a petition. More than 90 MPs jointly petitioned Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, hoping that Pavey, the leader of the Civic Power Party, would select suitable candidates from his party to fill the ministerial vacancy, but in the end it was unsuccessful, and the cabinet adjustment was still decided by Prayut Chan-o-cha.
The author believes that there are two main reasons why Prime Minister Prayut does not want to see the Civic Power Party nominating itself as a candidate for prime minister: First, there are many factions in the Civic Power Party, most of which are professional politicians, and they are not good at governing the economy, so the seats such as the government finance minister and the minister of energy are directly invited by Prayuth to serve as professionals to ensure the effectiveness of governance. Second, Prayut wants to keep its relationship with the Civic Power Party the same as it was in the 2019 election, when it relied on Prayuth's personal prestige to gain voter support so that it could ensure that the Civic Power Party would not dare to leave itself behind itself in the next general election and push others as prime ministerial candidates. Therefore, the cabinet positions that are crucial to the election – the position of Minister of the Interior responsible for appointing the national government and county governors – must not be filled by Civic Force politicians, and are always held by Prayuth's most trusted Anupong. In this way, even a break with Civic Power politicians, with his personal prestige and Anupon's close relationship with the constituencies through the Ministry of the Interior, will be able to guarantee an invincible position in the next general election.
Politicians of the Civic Power Party believe that they can do a great job of Prayut Prayut to become prime minister again in 2019, but Prime Minister Prayut has not given the Civic Power Party its due return. Not only are cabinet seats small, but positions are relatively less important. The position of Minister of the Interior, which is most crucial for the party election, is held by Anupont, a member of the Non-Citizen Forces Party. He has a more introverted personality, does not like to socialize, has little contact with parliamentarians, and is difficult to listen to the voices of parliamentarians, let alone create conditions for the parliamentarians of the Civic Power Party to enter the people and win the hearts and minds of the people. Therefore, they hope that the Civil Power party leader Ba Wei or other management will take the position of interior minister to pave the way for the next general election.
For his part, Tamana, who had been hoping to be promoted to minister and was actively working to that end, was never successful. On 18 June, he was successfully elected Secretary-General of the Civic Power Party, creating excellent conditions for promotion to Minister, and he himself was confident about it. After the chemical plant explosion near Bangkok in early July, he rushed to the scene to guide the work, and some media commented that he was "simulating the responsibility of the minister of the interior".
In addition, the secretaries-general of the two other major parties of the ruling coalition, the Democratic Party of China and the Pride Thai Party, serve as minister of agriculture and cooperatives and minister of transport, respectively. The secretary-general of the ruling coalition's largest party, if he serves only as an assistant minister and is below the secretary-general of the Democratic Party, does not match his position. Moreover, there are other party members in the party who serve as ministers, and if they are only assistant ministers, it is not conducive to the management of the party. In Thai political history, it is not uncommon for party leaders to serve as prime ministers and secretaries-general to serve as the "golden partner" of the interior minister. Tamana's ideal state of mind would be to act as Minister of the Interior in one step and, if not, as Minister of other ministries. Another option is for Bawi to become Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior, while he himself will serve as Assistant Minister of the Interior. In short, either "correct" the minister or actually control the Ministry of the Interior.
However, even if Tamana and the politicians of the Civic Power Party plotted well, Prayut and Anupong were still reluctant to hand over the "fat" of the Ministry of The Interior. As the next general election draws nearer, Tamana decided not to pin her hopes on Prayuth, but to act to kick off Prayuth's "stumbling block." His character of being open and cooperative, and not suffering from gains and losses, determined that only he dared to conspire in the Thai political arena to plot a "parliamentary coup" to overthrow Prayut Chan-o-cha who came to power in a military coup. He should have been prepared for the worst. However, he underestimated the camaraderie of Prayuth-Pavey-Anupong's "triple brothers" and Prayut's own strength. Ba Wei (or even the king), who had acquiesced to his actions, eventually decided to side with Prayuth and Anupong, leading to the failure of Tamana's plan.
As for Prayuth's outburst of power this time, the author believes that it is not reckless, inconsistent, and drawn the knife in the opposite direction, but there are two deep meanings: One is "knocking the mountain and shaking the tiger", using the "counterinsurgency" incident to knock the "tiger" behind Tamana - perhaps the king, perhaps Ba Wei (assistant minister of labor Nalemon is a close confidant of Ba Wei), or perhaps Thaksin, warning them not to make small moves behind their backs, and want to overthrow themselves through "covert actions". The second is "killing chickens and making an example of monkeys", Tamana and Nalemon are "chickens", and politicians from all factions of the Civic Power Party, including other political parties in the ruling coalition, are "monkeys", warning them to recognize the situation clearly, and who is in charge of the ups and downs between the literati politicians and the military-born Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha? An immediate example is the fact that Vera, a ruling coalition party that also belongs to the Tamana group, openly made overtures to Prayuth in a televised interview, saying that there is only one hill in the Civic Power party, and that is the "Triplets" (Prayuth-Pavey-Anupong).
As the rift between Prayuth and Tamana became public, Tamana had no choice but to leave his job. Despite his vast powers and many friends, given the deterioration of his relations with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the possibility of being regarded as an "outcast" of the king, it is not yet known whether he can still call the wind and rain after leaving the Civic Power Party and the great tree of Pavey. The author believes that Tamana's departure may lead to a reshuffle between the various hilltop factions in the Civic Power party, and there may be a number of parliamentarians who will follow Tamana to leave the party, but it will not have a fatal impact on the stability of prayut regime for the time being.
Of course, Prayut can also choose to stop relying on the Civic Power Party, start the backup new party that was previously established, adjust the cabinet candidates as soon as possible, and create momentum for the new party to participate in the general election. Thai media rumors that the current executive deputy secretary of the Ministry of the Interior, Cha Chai, who is about to retire at the end of September. Phong Lat is likely to retire to the Cabinet as Assistant Minister of the Interior, and he is also rumored to be the leader of Prayuth's new party, the Thai Economy Party. The current backbone members of this party are mainly retired government officials and former government officials.
What choices will Prayuth make and where will Thai politics go? Will Prayuth dissolve Parliament and hold general elections in advance? Will there be other political events in the ruling coalition that disrupt Prayuth's deployment? All of this is still difficult to predict. Then there are protracted street anti-government demonstrations outside Parliament and the constant attack on social media on the government's "Tony Brothers" (Thaksin). In any case, after this "parliamentary coup", Thai politics will undergo major changes. We'll see!