The Beijing Stock Exchange will be established! Create the main position of serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises! Costs drive methanol prices upwards, and hog prices continue to plummet

Established the Beijing Stock Exchange

Yesterday, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced in his speech at the 2021 China International Fair for Trade in Services Global Trade in Services Summit that he will continue to support the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, deepen the reform of the New Third Board, set up the Beijing Stock Exchange, and create a main position for serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises.

In this regard, the CSRC responded yesterday evening that the Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises and the reform of the New Third Board, and the Central Economic Work Conference, the outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee have made important arrangements for the development of specialized new small and medium-sized enterprises and the deepening of the reform of the New Third Board. At the service trade fair, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly proposed that he will continue to support the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, deepen the reform of the New Third Board, set up the Beijing Stock Exchange, and create the main position of serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, which is a new major strategic deployment for the capital market to better serve the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality development, and has pointed out the direction and provided guidance for further deepening the reform of the New Third Board and improving the financial support system of the capital market for small and medium-sized enterprises. The party committee of the CSRC is very excited, will study and understand in depth, and resolutely implement it.

The CSRC said that small and medium-sized enterprises can do great things. Small and medium-sized enterprises play an important role in promoting economic growth, promoting scientific and technological innovation, and increasing employment. The capital market has always taken the innovation and development of small and medium-sized enterprises as an important mission, and in recent years, through continuous deepening of reform and improvement of policies and systems, it has continued to improve the quality and efficiency of serving the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. The Party Committee of the CSRC deeply realized that deepening the reform of the New Third Board and establishing the Beijing Stock Exchange is an important measure to implement the national innovation-driven development strategy and continue to cultivate new momentum for development, as well as an important part of deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side and improving the multi-level capital market system, which is of great significance for better playing the function of the capital market, promoting the integration of science and technology and capital, and supporting the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In accordance with the important instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping, the CSRC will thoroughly implement the new development concept, adhere to the steady progress, adhere to the direction of marketization and rule of law, coordinate the development layout of the multi-level capital market, promote and improve the whole chain system of capital market service for the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, strive to build a professional development platform for the capital market that meets China's national conditions and effectively serves new small and medium-sized enterprises, and strive to build a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic and resilient capital market. Better serve the high-quality development of the real economy.

Yesterday, the domestic futures market rose more and fell less, of which bifocal continued to lead the rise in black, coking coal rose and stopped, coke rose nearly 7%, agricultural and sideline products in beans rose more than 2%, pigs fell nearly 3%. The chemical sector was red in a large area, with methanol rising 2.81%, plastics up 3.18%, polypropylene up 2.25%, PVC up 2.07%, and ethylene glycol up 3.05%.

Tan Yang, a methanol researcher at the China Merchants Futures Research Institute, told the Futures Daily reporter that the recent methanol trend is strong, and the oscillation of the whole price center of gravity has risen, but the supply and demand of the methanol market has not changed significantly, and the upward drive is still driven by the sharp rise in coal prices and gas prices at the cost end.

Tan Yang also said that the current round of methanol rise is still slightly cautious, and the biggest constraint comes from the weak profit of the downstream methanol-to-olefin end. Due to the recent rise in methanol prices, the cash flow of some MTO/MTP devices has been compressed to the lower boundary of recent years, and the pressure on downstream main profits has caused the market to increase its maintenance expectations, which in turn has also suppressed the upper space of methanol prices.

"At the same time, the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and it is difficult to form an effective demand pull." In terms of coastal inventory, the recent increase in arrivals, but the poor unloading of the port has slowed down the accumulation of inventory, and there is still a certain positive for the entrepot under the high overseas price, which has alleviated some of the pressure on the port inventory, and it is difficult to see a large accumulation of methanol port inventory this year. Tan Yang believes that it is expected that with the improvement of downstream consumption in the later period, the inventory center will be limited.

Looking forward to the future, Tan Yang said that in the fourth quarter of this year, under the favorable factors such as environmental protection, domestic and foreign gas restrictions and carbon neutral long logic to reduce the supply side, it is still relatively optimistic about methanol fundamentals. However, in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the persistence of high coal prices and the negative impact of high methanol prices on downstream olefin end loads.

In terms of PE futures, Dai Yifan, an analyst at South China Futures Energy, said in an interview with the Futures Daily reporter that since June, PE futures have basically oscillated in a wide range of 7950/ton-8450/ton, mainly in the game of cost and demand, and the process is disturbed by supply-side devices and raw material-side prices.

Among them, the change in the supply side is the main reason for the large fluctuation of the PE futures in the past two days. Specifically, due to the impact of the double-limit policy, the total production capacity of 2.4 million tons on the supply side may be affected. Although the device has not yet announced the maintenance and parking dynamics, carbon neutrality is imperative, so the probability of the later stage of the device will still appear or stop or decrease or outsourcing, which will support the PE price. Dai Yifan said.

Dai Yifan said that from the cost side, the recent policy and hurricane, crude oil trend is strong, but in the case of a weak global economy, we hold a long-term bearish view of crude oil, because the oil profit is positive, the impact of crude oil is more manifested as the entire chemical industry, rather than marginal. In addition, although the margin of thermal coal is relaxed in September and October, the demand in winter is still tight, and investors are more concerned about whether it is accumulated from September to October. Therefore, pe cost support is still there, and the price is still relatively firm.

From the demand side, Dai Yifan said that it is still in the off-season, but the PE downstream is relatively good for PP recovery. Among them, the demand for shed film and mulch film has gradually recovered, the order volume has increased, and the operating rate has risen, but there is a problem of insufficient follow-up of follow-up orders; rigid packaging and packaging film are warming, and demand is expected to gradually return in September; the rest of the downstream performance is still weak. "Pe downstream as a whole is greatly affected by macroeconomic weakness, and demand has not shown a significant signal of improvement." However, some demand has rebounded compared with the previous period, and the upper margin has moved up compared with the previous period, and the later stage may usher in a breakthrough. ”

In addition, Hurricane Ada also had a certain impact on the PE market. Dai Yifan believes that with the landing of "Ada", some petrochemical plants have stopped working, but the impact after the recent turn into a tropical storm is limited, and it is expected that the device will gradually resume production in the later stage. In the short term, the impact of the weather will not cause large fluctuations in PE prices in the United States, and the impact on the country is also limited. If the profits are exhausted, or the price difference between China and the United States will narrow, thus affecting imports and exports, investors should continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in the United States and the PE accumulation situation.

In the view of Zhou Ao, a researcher at Everbright Futures Energy, the United States, as an important global exporter of polyethylene and ethylene glycol, the market is still worried about whether the supply of US petrochemical products can be restored as soon as possible under the influence of "Ada". Specifically, affected by "Ada", a number of petrochemical plants in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States were shut down, and the ethylene plant with a production capacity of about 6.53 million tons / year was stopped, accounting for about 16% of the total ethylene production capacity in the United States. Propylene parking devices involve a production capacity of about 5 million tons / year, accounting for 21% of the total production capacity of propylene in the United States. For now, the U.S. coastal areas are in a state of widespread power outages and may take weeks to recover.

Talking about the reasons for the recent strong rebound of ethylene glycol, Dai Yifan believes that there are three main points: First, the inventory level of ethylene glycol is not high. As of the end of last week, the total inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was about 583,000 tons, which was at a low level compared with previous years, and the large accumulation of market expectations had not appeared for a long time, and the impact of the epidemic on port unloading was still there. Second, the price of thermal coal has risen sharply recently, and the cost of coal-to-ethylene glycol has increased again near the highest level in history. The overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol is 62.66%, of which the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 46.62%, and the sharp rise in coal prices will inevitably inhibit the operating rate of coal-to-ethylene glycol and reduce the supply pressure in the short term. Third, there are multiple positives in terms of policy. The sudden positive on Friday was the Announcement by the Ministry of Commerce of its decision to conduct an anti-dumping investigation into the monoalkyl ethers of relevant ethylene glycol and propylene glycol imported from the United States, and decided to extend the investigation period of the case by 6 months, that is, the deadline is February 28, 2022. At the same time, yesterday's methanol market rumors due to the government's dual control requirements for energy consumption, a number of sets of methanol coal chemical plants began to reduce the burden and stop production, which made the coal-to-ethylene glycol market, which is also a large energy consumption, have a similar policy imagination.

"In general, in the short term, inventories, costs and policies have helped ethylene glycol bottom out, but ethylene glycol supply and demand still maintain a slight surplus." Specifically, the current overseas supply is still tight, pay attention to the operation of ethylene glycol plants in North America. In terms of domestic supply, the 900,000-ton satellite petrochemical plant is being restarted, Hualu Hengsheng, Sanning device will be restarted one after another, and Xinjiang Tianye cargo will arrive and be transported to the factory. Dai Yifan said that the short-term bullishness has not changed the long-term surplus situation, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will oscillate strongly in the short term, paying attention to the changes in crude oil and overseas devices.

The Hog 2109 contract continues to weaken, and Apple still lacks effective drivers

Yesterday, the hog futures 2019 contract continued to explore to 16085 yuan / ton, a daily decline of 2.99%.

For the continuous decline of pig futures, Zhang Xiaojun, a pig analyst at Green Dahua Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter that from the spot market in the past two days, the spot price of pigs has also maintained the main line of stability, and some regions have adjusted slightly, and there is no obvious bearishness for the futures disk. The good news announced by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 30 to start pork storage again also failed to support the futures disk, mainly due to the bearish momentum released by the discount delivery of the pig 2109 contract.

"Looking back, on September 1, after the hog futures 2109 contract entered the delivery month, the buyer closed the position because he was not optimistic about the lack of willingness to receive the goods in the future market, and the LH2109 contract fell 5.37% on the day, with a basis of +800. On the first day of delivery month, 4 lots were paired and delivered, and the delivery settlement price was 13450 yuan / ton, while the Henan pig price announced by Boya Hexun was 14100 yuan / ton, and the futures delivery discount was 650 yuan / ton. On September 2, the pig delivery paired with 5 lots, the transaction price was 13015 yuan / ton, the Henan pig price was still 14100 yuan / ton, and the futures delivery discount was 1085 yuan / ton. Zhang Xiaojun said that although the delivery settlement price is of little significance to the spot price guidance, the first delivery discount of futures also reflects that the current market is still pessimistic about price expectations, driving all contracts on the disk to explore again.

Looking forward to the spot trend of pig prices in the future, Zhang Xiaojun said that the current impact of the new crown epidemic on terminal consumption has not fully recovered, and the sluggish consumption support for pig prices is insufficient, and it is expected that pig prices will remain low until the new crown epidemic is completely over. At present, the impact of the new crown epidemic has gradually weakened, and with the opening of schools and the advent of double festivals, terminal consumption is expected to improve. Superimposed countries once again released storage signals, official shouts to take the opportunity to eat more pork, the policy stability maintenance intention is obvious, and the short-term decline in spot space is limited.

In the view of Hou Xiaorui, a fresh analyst at Yide Futures, in the case of a continuous decline in pig prices, the state has taken the initiative to support short-term pig prices, one is to collect and store, and the other is to promote consumption. Specifically, after the pig-to-food ratio fell below the warning line, the state released storage information, and the overall reserves were limited, but it boosted short-term market sentiment and avoided panic among farmers in the process of pig price decline, which in turn led to sharp price fluctuations, which played a role in stabilizing pig prices. In addition, in the case of weak pork demand, the state encouraged residents to increase pork consumption and curb the further decline in pig prices. "Both of these policies are for short-term pig prices, but in the context of oversupply, it is difficult to change the overall trend of pig prices."

From the futures side, Zhang Xiaojun believes that the LH2109 contract premium delivery bearish continued to release, as of September 2, the pig position was 35 lots, the warehouse receipt decreased by 193 to 136, COFCO Meat cancelled 195 warehouse receipts, with the 2109 contract warehouse receipts and positions gradually return to the same, delivery discount water and short release, short-term futures disk is expected to stop falling. In the medium and long term, the downward cycle of the pig cycle is still not over, the bottom of the price has not yet appeared, and the pig price in 2022 still has room to fall, it is recommended that large-scale breeding enterprises pay attention to the sell hedging opportunities of the far-month contracts LH2203 and LH2205.

Recently, apple futures prices have been falling continuously, and the current futures market has hit a low level of nearly three months. In this regard, Hou Zhifang, an apple researcher at Founder Medium-term Futures, said that the long-term pressure formed by the recent stable production of new fruits and the weak demand performance has suppressed apple prices themselves. At the same time, the current apple market lacks effective favorable factors, and the recent weak market of northwest precocious Fuji has led to a weak market sentiment, which has triggered a decline in futures prices.

Looking forward to the future, Hou Zhifang said that the degree and path of apple production and quality in the new season are still the main concerns of the market, and the limited disturbance factors and relatively optimistic market expectations still bring greater pressure to the market.

In addition, the opening price and the goods of early maturing apples will also have an impact on the opening price of red Fuji apples and consumption expectations, and if the early apples perform poorly, they will correspondingly form an emotional suppression on the disk. Instead, it will form a support for the disk surface. Hou Zhifang said that in general, the current apple market still lacks effective trend drivers, and the overall price still maintains a low oscillation judgment.

This article originated from Futures Daily