In May 1863, Shi Dakai sighed at the sky, since the Jintian Uprising, he was invincible and invincible, known as the "God of War", and his name was shocked. Who knows, after breaking away from the Tianjing War, almost no decent victory was won, and in the six years before and after, Shi Dakai was like a headless fly, scurrying around and wretched. In desperation, Shi Dakai walked into the camp of Luo Bingzhang, the governor of Sichuan, and carried out a "please surrender" to save all their lives.
Although the idea is beautiful, the reality is very cruel, Shi Da is at the end of the road, there is no cost to negotiate, Luo Bingzhang does not pay any attention to him. Shi Dakai, Ling Chi was executed, it is said that he cut more than a thousand knives, he did not say a word; his son Shi Dingzhong, one said that he was smothered by lime powder, and the other said that he was sent to the court to serve the royal family. Shi Dakai's failure to do so is closely related to the direction of his choice of march, and if it is the Northern Expedition to the Central Plains, the probability of Shi Dakai winning is very high.
In September 1856, the Tianjing Incident broke out, and the Taiping Army fought each other, and the Xianfeng Emperor, who was far away in Yanjing, finally breathed a sigh of relief. Even so, the Qing army was still not sure of destroying the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, because the strategic situation at that time was still quite severe, and the Qing Dynasty could turn to a counter-offensive, but did not have the strength to invade Tianjing.
The Eight Banners and the Green Camp, with the destruction of the "Jiangnan Camp", have been scattered in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, and it is difficult to gather together in the short term, let alone immediately put into battle. Moreover, the combat effectiveness of the Eight Banners and the Green Battalion was worrisome, and as long as the Taiping Army strictly guarded and harassed from time to time, the Qing Army had no way at all.
Although the Xiang army under Zeng Guofan was brave and good at war, after all, the number was too small. Moreover, Zeng Guofan was not reused by the Xianfeng Emperor, failed to grasp the real power of the locality, and his combat operations were hampered. In addition, the great powers were eyeing the tiger, the contradictions with the Qing Dynasty intensified, and they were ready for war at any time, and the Qing Dynasty had to draw soldiers and horses to guard the southeast coast and the Gyeonggi stronghold.
Considering the overall environment, although the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was seriously injured, the Qing Dynasty could not be determined in the short term, and the two sides entered a state of tug-of-war. In May 1857, Shi Da went out alone, calling on his soldiers to follow along the way, and his soldiers and horses reached more than 100,000, with a huge momentum. However, Shi Dakai first chose Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian as bases, and then entered Sichuan, which was a major strategic mistake.
Shi Dakai had many soldiers and horses under his command, but it was not suitable for him to gain a foothold in the south, because the Taiping Army had "shortcomings" that could not be solved in the short term, and Shi Dakai fought in the south, which had no effect except to consume troops. The Taiping Army's two major shortcomings, one is the lack of specialized water divisions, and the other is the lack of sufficient weapons to attack the strongholds, which is a great constraint on combat.
Without enough offensive weapons, how could Shi Dakai capture the city? You must know that the south was the focus of contention between the Qing Dynasty and the Taiping Army, and the Qing Army was more heavily defensive and concentrated; the Taiping Army wanted to be indestructible, or "pass on the word", which could only be a dream.
Without the assistance of specialized sailors, the Taiping Army could only fight in the south, which could only be a dead end. You know, the Jiangnan region has many rivers and lakes, and it is difficult to achieve victory without the assistance of water divisions. First, the Admiralty could assist the Army in combat, firing artillery in the river to bombard enemy troops on the shores, or climbing into coastal areas to destroy the other side's fortifications.
Second, the marine division can transport food and ensure that its logistics are sufficient and stable, thus supporting the cost of protracted combat. In addition, powerful sailors can cut off the other side's logistics supply lines and blockade important cities along the river, trapping the opponent in the city. In this way, even if the city is not attacked, the other side will be starved to death, thus achieving the effect of "surrendering soldiers without fighting".
Lacking a water division and a lack of weapons to attack the strongholds, Shi Dakai suffered a lot in the Jiangnan region. For example, Jiangxi was unable to cross the Ganjiang River for 3 months, and the rescue operation in Jiangxi failed and was forced to enter Zhejiang. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian, he was still trapped by the water master. On the banks of the Dadu River, with the assistance of a water division, Shi Dakai would not have been completely annihilated and would have been executed by Ling Chi.
In the southern region, it was not suitable for Shi Dakai to gain a foothold, and the principle in the Northern Expedition had a probability of victory. The Central Plains, the center of gravity of the Qing Dynasty and the heart of the dynasty, is a very important strategic position. However, the Qing army's defensive strength in the Central Plains was very weak, and it was only a strong force, only the Mongol horse team under the command of Senggelinqin. At this time, the "Twist Army" rose and crossed the Central Plains, and the Mongolian horse team was exhausted.
The plain terrain, without numerous rivers, was ideal for Shi Dakai's large corps to fight, because the role of the marine division was negligible. With the support of the "Twist Army", Shi Dakai's strength was greatly enhanced, and the probability of defeating the monk Gelinqin was very large, or there was no suspense. So, will the Qing Dynasty deploy troops to strengthen the defense of the Central Plains?
It was theoretically possible to draw troops, but the Qing Dynasty could not do it. Quite simply, the "Jiangnan camp" besieged Tianjing, and once they were dispatched north, Chen Yucheng and Li Xiucheng took the opportunity to seize the financial and taxation powerhouses of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Without Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the Qing Dynasty's tax revenue was reduced by half, and the situation was even more difficult. Moreover, the soldiers of the "Jiangnan Battalion" were not good at position warfare.
The Xiang army, with strong combat effectiveness, can face the Taiping Army head-on, but the Qing Dynasty will not easily transfer troops, unless the Taiping Army is close to Yanjing City, the Xianfeng Emperor will let go. The reason was simple, the Xiang Army was a private armed force, not a directly subordinate armed force of the Qing Dynasty, and Xianfeng did not want Zeng Guofan to infect the Central Plains. The Xiang army entering Yanjing was no different from the Taiping army entering Yanjing, and the Xianfeng Emperor did not want to see this scene.
In this way, if Shi Dakai left Tianjing, he did not turn to Jiangnan, but led his troops to the Northern Expedition to the Central Plains, and the probability of victory was very high. Even if he could not invade Yanjing, Shi Dakai could capture Henan, Hebei, and the lianghuai area, establish a base area, and gain a foothold in the chaotic world. Controlling the Central Plains, the Qing Dynasty could not directly contact the southern provinces, Xianfeng was difficult to command all the soldiers and horses, and the Qing Dynasty existed in name only.
Bibliography: History of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom