Czech general election in the shadow of the "Pandora's Paper": an election that may affect Sino-Czech relations

The Paper's special contributor Hu Liyan

Parliamentary elections will be held in the Czech Republic from 8 to 9 October. The leading edge of the ruling party "ANO2011 Movement Party" led by Czech Prime Minister Babiš is not obvious, and a report called "Pandora Document" released by the "International Alliance of Investigative Journalists" on the 3rd said that multinational political and business dignitaries use offshore companies to hide assets or buy real estate, which mentions that in 2009, Babiš, who was an entrepreneur, injected $22 million into overseas companies to buy a manor in France. Although Babish responded that the deal was not illegal and happened 12 years ago, not during his administration, whether the shadow of the "Pandora's Document" will have an impact on the outcome of the parliamentary elections has raised concerns.

Competition between the parties is fierce

Babiš's ruling party "ANO2011 Movement Party" supports the integration of the Czech Republic into Europe, emphasizing the importance of the EU, but at the same time holding a certain skeptical stance on the EU, clearly putting the interests of the nation-state first, especially supporting the "autonomous" choice of Central and Eastern Europe, opposing the Czech Republic's accession to the eurozone, boycotting the EU refugee distribution plan with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, and disapproving the transfer of Czech sovereignty to the European Parliament or the Council of Europe. In his China policy, although Babiš has different opinions from Czech President Zeman, he is still close to China and friends with China.

The "Pirates and Mayors Party" is one of the main opposition electoral alliances, composed of the pro-European center-left Pirate Party and the centrist Mayors and Independence Parties, which are clearly pro-Taiwan and anti-China in their diplomatic claims, and the open support for Prague Mayor Horep in Taiwan is from this party.

The "United Party Together", which is composed of center-right Democratic Parties, liberal pro-European Top09 and conservative centrist Christian Democratic Party Alliance, advocates "clearly facing the West", claiming that "the future of the Czech Republic lies in the European Union and NATO", and in terms of foreign policy, it will restore former President Javier's assertion of defending human rights values.

A survey by czech polling companies before the end of September showed that the "ANO 2011 Movement Party" had a slight lead of 27.3%, but faced pressure from two right-wing opposition coalitions: 21.4% for the "United Party" and 17.4% for the "Pirate Mayors Party". In addition, the far-right Liberal and Direct Democratic Party has a support rate of 12.3%, the left-wing Czech Communist Party is 5.7%, and the Social Democratic Party is 4.5%, and the overall competitive situation is fierce.

The Impact of the "Pandora's Papers" is limited

The Pandora's Document created new uncertainty about the Czech elections, but its impact was limited. Analysts in the Czech Republic pointed out that the election is mainly based on the last-minute voting decisions of the hesitant part of the voters, who pay less attention to politics and vote with strong emotions. In the final days, it was mainly up to Babish's response and explanation to be convincing enough.

Second, since Babish came to power, economic scandals, including "defrauding EU subsidies" and tax avoidance, have become commonplace for many Czech voters. Thus, in contrast, the 2016 Panama Papers had a greater impact on Czech politics, when the Social Democrats became opposition parties due to the defeat of the scandalous elections, resulting in a state of instability in the Cabinet of the Czech government for a considerable period of time.

Again, Babish has a strong charisma personality and has enough money to spend on pre-election campaigns. He hired advertising experts, including those who understood psychology, and a large percentage of voters tended to believe babish.

In the end, Babish was supported by President Zeman. The prime minister needed a presidential nomination, and President Zeman said he would nominate only one Babish and not anyone else, firmly opposing the election of the other two parties.

Election results and Sino-Czech relations

The "ANO 2011 Movement Party" came to power as an anti-establishment, anti-elite, populist center-right new party, but with the support of President Zeman, it joined forces with the Social Democratic Party and was supported by the Czech Communist Party, and in the course of its administration the policies gradually became characteristic of a center-left party. The Babish government has provided a large number of vaccines to the population during the outbreak and has made it generally felt that the country's economy is recovering. At the same time, Babish's emphasis on increasing pension and retiree benefits and opposing European refugee policies in his campaign was supported by most middle-aged and elderly voters. Babish's political views resonate with a majority of voters, some of whom are from the Social Democrats, the traditional camp of left-wing party voters.

The opposition parties, on the other hand, have been in a slump in recent years, so they have taken the form of alliances against the ruling party. The United Party and the Pirate Mayors Party are center-right parties that advocate liberalism, support the increase in fiscal, taxation, welfare systems, etc., and support the EU's foreign and security policies such as refugees, and have been attacked by the domestic media in the debate, mainly attracting a younger generation of voters. Judging from the current poll support, the Liberal and Direct Democratic Party and the Czech Communist Party are expected to reach the threshold of 5% of the vote in the general election and enter the parliament, but the Social Democratic Party is likely to lose its parliamentary seat without 5% of the vote.

Judging from the current trends in European politics, the Czech domestic election situation, and Babiš's crisis management ability, the Czech election results may be similar to the German election, and the center-left, that is, the center-left camp led by Babish, is more likely to win. If Babiš's ruling party, the ANO2011 Movement Party, is re-elected, the ANO2011 Movement Party will not form a cabinet with the United Party and the Pirates and Mayors Party, but may seek to cooperate with the far right or the Czech Communist Party, which will continue the Czech Policy of Friendship with China.

Of course, if the opposition parties win, the possibility of a joint cabinet between the United Party and the Pirates and Mayors Party is very likely. China-Czech relations will be in trouble and difficult. In the future, the energy of the Czech Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party to speak out for China in parliament will become weak.

(Hu Liyan, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)

Editor-in-Charge: Zhu Zhengyong

Proofreader: Yijia Xu