On April 16, Taobao International won the second place on the U.S. App download list in one fell swoop.
A few days later, another orange app also appeared on the phones of people of all races.
This orange APP is called "DHgate". One was established at about the same time as Taobao.com, and the head foreign trade network a long time ago.
(Dunhuang ranks second, second only to ChatGPT)
Now, when you open the app stores of various countries, you can almost see these two orange figures in the first three miles.
(Picture from the Internet)
Over there, the tariff pressed the crazy button. Here, it is a Chinese e-commerce APP that is full of energy.
Even Dunhuang, which has "no one asked about the cold window for ten years", has become famous all over the world in one fell swoop. That's great. The light of domestic production shines on the earth.
But in addition to your excitement, you may also have some doubts:
Tariffs have skyrocketed, aren't goods more expensive? Shouldn't fewer people buy Chinese goods? Why are these e-commerce platforms stronger? How did they circumvent the impact of the tariffs?
There are also netizens who smell business opportunities and discuss whether to open an online store and sell things to foreigners. At this time, someone always came to cover me and said, "Don't don't, don't." This is either a tragic struggle of a strong man with a broken wrist, or a short-lived speculation.
Is that really the case?
I did my homework and had a faint assumption, which wasn't necessarily right:
The tariff stick of the United States is "smashing" two dividends.
One, is the white card bonus. One, is the online bonus.
Yes? Tariffs are frighteningly high, but there can still be dividends?
Read a few pictures, and you'll understand.
But a word of caution first. For the sake of understanding, I have greatly simplified the calculations and data in the graph. The main purpose is to give you an intuitive comparative reference.
You see, from the factory, to the American consumer. It can be roughly divided into five stages: factory, brand, freight, tariff, and channel.
Previously, after years of gambling, a stable profit distribution system has been formed. A white label will usually be cheaper than a brand.
But now, what will happen to the sudden and large increase in tariffs?
What consumers buy, it will definitely become more expensive. But if you don't want to rise too hard, you can only work on the other 4 items.
Can the ex-factory price be changed? It can't be changed, the factory's profit is already as thin as paper, and no matter how low it is, the factory will stop shipping.
Can the shipping cost be changed? It can't be changed, it's a fixed value.
Then all that is left is brand premium and channel profit. There is still room for concessions between the two.
Let's see what happens with the addition of a 145% tariff.
You see, with the addition of a 145% tariff, the price difference between the white label and the brand has increased from $20 without tariffs to $49.
The price gap between brands and white labels is proportionally magnified by tariffs.
At this time, the cheaper the product, the more advantageous.
As a result, there will definitely be a part of consumers who originally bought the brand and switched to buying white labels. There could be a downgrade in consumption in the United States.
Therefore, this is the first logic: the higher the tax, the more obvious the path advantage of "de-branding" will be.
This is the first bonus under the ultra-high tariff: the white card bonus.
Then, there is the second bonus, the online bonus.
A friend may immediately retort: "Have you forgotten May 2nd?" ”
After May 2, the "small parcel clause" that was originally tax-free under $800 will also be suspended. As a result, even small cross-border parcels have to be poisoned by tariffs.
And this policy is an important favorable policy for China's cross-border e-commerce to prosper in the past few years.
And now, even cross-border e-commerce platforms such as SHEIN and Temu have announced price increase notices one after another.
"Look, look. The pressure is too much to bear. Why are you still talking about online bonuses? ”
Please look at another picture.
To control for variables, assume that they are all white label products with no brand premium. Or $10 ex-factory price, $2 shipping. 2 times the fixed magnification rate offline. Online channels charge a 25% after-tax platform fee.
Still, let's settle the accounts together.
As you can see from the chart, in the absence of tariffs, offline will be 9 dollars more than online. With the 145% tariff, the difference continues to increase from $9 to $13.05.
This means that after the tariff increase, not only the difference between the brand and the white label is being magnified, but the difference between online and offline is also expanded.
The gap is too small, and even if it is cheap online, consumers may still prefer to go to the store, which can be seen and touched. But if the gap is large, more people will be willing to shop online.
Because tariffs have risen, there are many online goods, so I have no choice but to follow the price increase. Many e-commerce people left me messages saying that they were worried that they would not sell well after the price increase.
Don't worry too much. If the offline price increase rises more fiercely, the online will not necessarily sell well. As the tariff increases, the price difference between online and offline will be larger, and online business may increase instead of falling.
All right. White Label Bonus. Online bonuses. Two logics, that's all it takes.
In the past, the Chinese were replaced in 1688. Now, foreigners are looking for a replacement in Dunhuang.
It seems easy to say. But these two dividends may be the way for countless foreign traders to squeeze out desperately under the pressure of tariffs.
In recent years, 1688 has exploded on Xiaohongshu, and Chinese consumers are looking for replacements, giving the market "training" a number of factories that are willing to accept small orders.
As a result, many factories, especially some big-name foundries, began to accept 5 pieces and 8 pieces of this kind of small order wholesale price.
And now, this ability, under ultra-high tariffs, has become a new weapon for Chinese companies to go overseas.
Of course, the deduction of these two logics has also been simplified by me a lot, and it may not even be accurate.
But you've seen that someone ran out first. DHgate, overseas Taobao. They are blooming everywhere.
There are concerns about the general impact of tariffs, but the actual impact of tariffs is not evenly distributed to everyone.
It's more like a rag that has been twisted vigorously, constantly wringing out "moisture". It "screwed" out the high premium of the brand, and also "screwed" out the high cost of offline channels.
The source factory is still trying to save itself. Chinese e-commerce companies are still desperately looking for a way out. No matter what the circumstances, there is always someone who can find an opportunity.
No matter how difficult the road is, both sides are full of fruit.
Bless every reformer.
Viewpoint / Liu Run Writer / Mu Yansheng Editor / Ge Ping Layout / Huang Jing