Text: Financial Story Club Dong Hong
Unexpectedly, the birth of DeepSeek not only stirred up the technology circle more boiling than a hot pot, but even the rubber plate, which has been silent in the capital market for many years and has been unpopular for a long time, has also been stirred up one after another.
Last week, the rubber products sector of Big A was extremely excited, and on February 20, it led the two cities with a rise of 6.23%, Hongbai New Materials, Yuanxiang New Materials, Sanlux, Runhe Materials and other shares.
The logic inside is a little dirty: DeepSeek is expected to bring concepts such as AI girlfriend (AI + silicone dolls) and sex robots, and the market expects that once such products sell well, it will drive demand for rubber.
1. "AI Girlfriend" carnival party, featuring a "total"
The AI girlfriend in the capital market is "hi", and there is no ambiguity. From top to bottom, from inside to outside, covering all modules of body, hair, wear, and voice, the main feature is a "whole person" regardless of parts.
According to the list summarized by the investment platform, as long as it is related to it, it is in the upward channel:
Body group: Sanwei Co., Ltd., Hesheng Silicon Industry, Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Co., Ltd., Yuanxiang New Materials, Silicon Treasure Technology, etc., are committed to creating a "perfect body" comparable to a supermodel for AI girlfriends;
Thermoplastic elastomer group: Zhejiang Zhongcheng, Dawn Co., Ltd., Changhong Hi-Tech, etc., responsible for making AI girlfriends "soft Q bomb" with first-class feel;
Hair group: Rebecca, specializing in the "hair" of AI girlfriends, or long hair fluttering, or short hair sassy;
Sound group: Goertek, Minxin, Gongda Electroacoustics, Guoguang Electric, etc., supply microphones and speakers that can make AI girlfriends "able to speak" and have a sweet and beautiful voice;
Wearable group: Aimer shares, Fun Sleep Technology, Mingyue lenses, etc., "dress up" for AI girlfriends, from underwear to bedding, to glasses, to ensure that it is fashionable, delicate and charming.
In short, with the blessing of DeepSeek, an AI revolution in the adult product industry is taking place: that is, AI will significantly improve the interactivity and practicality of silicone dolls, so that she is no longer a cold, mechanical "vase", but a soulful and resonant "other half".
Source: Jinsan Youmei Weibo description
The traditional "adult toy" may be a "wooden man" hidden in a private bedroom, which is very dull to hold and very heavy to carry. But now, with the rapid development of generative AI and large models, these dolls can both understand your words, keenly capture your mood swings, and even walk on their own and learn to talk to you.
For example, when you come home from work and are exhausted, a graceful and lovely person gently walks up to you, quietly chats with you about today's troubles, and coaxes you to be happy in a gentle tone. Do you think it's worth spending 8,000?
In fact, the rapid rise of the "single dog" economy and the increasingly popular solitary life in modern society, as well as the integration of cutting-edge large-scale model technology and the transformation of sexual concepts, are greatly raising the growth "ceiling" of silicone dolls, and gradually giving birth to a new branch - sex robots.
Huafu Securities Research Report believes that driven by AI large model + flexible materials + physiological sensing technology, sex robots are transitioning from "physiological tools" to "emotional partners", opening up hundreds of billions of market space, and it is estimated that the global sex robot market will exceed 30 billion US dollars in 2025, equivalent to about 210 billion yuan. Among them, China accounts for more than 40%.
With such an attractive prospect, it is not surprising that investors are falling out one after another.
According to the "Financial Story Collection", standing on the "tuyere", there are already companies in the track that have drunk the "head soup". WMdoll in Zhongshan, Guangdong Province is a representative of this.
The South China Morning Post reported that WMDoll's sales are expected to increase by 30% in 2025, thanks to advances in artificial intelligence. Liu Jiangxia, chairman of the company, once revealed to the media that the silicone dolls after the public beta iteration have been sold overseas (not yet listed in China), with extremely high user activity and rising sales. Since the Spring Festival, orders with AI functions have accounted for 20% of the total orders.
Second, 10,000 yuan AI girlfriend, the single dog called "really fragrant"
"Eating and drinking, men and women, the great desire of man to survive."
AI girlfriend attacked, the most cola is probably the "single dog" group, right?
According to the "Chinese Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023", as of 2022, China's single population has exceeded 240 million, and it is expected to exceed 300 million by the end of 2024, which is equivalent to one in four people being single.
Moreover, the rate of unmarried in China has shown a clear upward trend, especially among the younger age group, which is relatively high: 51.3% in the 25-29 age group, 18.4% in the 30-34 age group, and 8% in the 35-39 age group.
In the year of the wolf, adult products have become the preferred alternative.
Many boys think: "It takes a lot of time, energy, and money to be friends between men and women." But buying a doll is different, when you need her, you can pull it to be a pillow person. When you don't need it, she won't pester you, let alone be unreasonable, or throw her face and leave. ”
And the rise of offline adult experiences in various places probably supports this. In recent years, the adult experience hall has been in full swing, especially in Guangdong, and the adult experience hall has become a good business.
A boss who runs an adult experience hall revealed to the "Financial Story Collection", "The doll experience is calculated according to the duration, 299 yuan / hour, 399 yuan / 2 hours, and the night is calculated separately, my four rooms are about 3,000 yuan a day, an average of 7 or 800 yuan a day, the profit margin is doubled, and it does not involve returns and exchanges, transportation, and in the end it is still very considerable." It's just that washing dolls is too tiring, and dolls that can't be washed are not easy to recruit. ”
Relevant industry data has shown that the profit margin of the adult products industry is very high, most products can reach more than 300%, and the profit margin of some characteristic sex toys and high-end physical dolls can reach more than 500%.
But the problem is that traditional adult products are self-compensating and self-reliant, although they can fill the physiological void in the short term, but over time, users often feel bored, because the emotional interaction and emotional value of companions are always missing.
And now, by incorporating AI technology into silicone dolls, this shackle is being broken.
For example, the AI intelligence series "MetaBox" launched by Jinsan Youmei connected to ChatGPT is priced between 1,500 and 2,000 US dollars (about 10,880-14,507 yuan), which not only pursues the ultimate in vision and touch - outstanding appearance and soft skin, but also has 8 different "personalities" for users to choose from, such as gentleness, intellectuality, etc., and has a certain memory, aiming to bring more "living people" to the "single dogs" of deep emotional satisfaction.
In reality, there are not a few men who are looking forward to AI girlfriends, and in the opinion of some people, "choosing an AI partner can avoid marriage risks, and you don't have to bear the sky-high bride price." ”
Lin Qi, who has experienced three failed romances, told "Financial Story Collection", "The love of the little fairy, that is Schrödinger-style, turns the face when you say it, and punches when you say it, but the AI girlfriend can at least be quantified." ”
Changyun, a programmer in his 30s, joked: "I don't have a temper, I will be considerate, to be honest, I would rather give a doll as a dowry than find an ancestor to go back and offer." ”
However, there is also a price to pay for experiencing the doll's AI interactive function. In the case of "MetaBox", users must pay a subscription fee of $100-$200 first. Later, recharge and renew according to demand, if you stop subscribing, the product will become a "dumb bride" again.
This "hardware + service" model is like a metaphor for contemporary intimacy: love needs to be paid continuously, otherwise the relationship will immediately go to zero.
However, there are also "single dogs" who are worried about the risk of privacy leakage after the AI function is applied to the silicone doll. After all, every move that is unspeakable can be transmitted to the background by the Internet.
Another user questioned whether the emergence of AI girlfriends would make human beings immersed in the convenience of science and technology and lose the courage and confidence to face love?
As one media has warned, "AI is reducing emotional relationships to quantifiable service packages, which could lead to the loss of humanity's ability to build real relationships." ”
But in general, most of the "single dogs" are still looking forward to the day when AI girlfriends will land in China as soon as possible.
Third, another punch to the fertility rate?
If there is any danger signal that the "driving" of the AI girlfriend will release, it is most likely to threaten the marriage rate and fertility rate.
According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations in 2024 will only be 6.11 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%.
Since the number of marriages is directly proportional to the number of newborns in the following year, it means that the number of newborns will continue to decline.
What cannot be ignored is that most single people maintain a Buddhist attitude towards whether they are anxious about their single status.
According to the "2023 Q4 Single Population Survey Report" released by Zhenai.com, 34.56% of people are not anxious about being single, 17.87% are not anxious until the end of the year, 26.69% are usually only anxious when their parents and friends urge them to marry, and men are more anxious than women.
Source: Zhenai report
In other words, in the absence of external pressure, nearly 80% of single people are willing to be single.
Li Xiang, an insurance actuary who has passed his first year, is a typical "Buddhist single". His daily life is filled with work, games and fitness, and he looks fulfilled and at ease on weekends with occasional dinners with friends or hiking and mountaineering. When asked if he wanted to find a partner, he smiled and said: "Look at fate, talk about the right person when you meet it, and pull it down if you don't meet it, it's good to live alone." ”
Gao Shu, a young man from a small town, was deterred by the high bride price, and his hometown was in a small city in western Gansu. In the local area, to get married, you have to buy a house in the city, and you have to match a car, the bride price starts at 150,000 yuan, plus the three golds for the woman, taking wedding photos, buying clothes, and treating guests to wine, etc., the mess adds up, and 300,000 yuan can't stop it (excluding houses and cars). "I can't afford it, let's be single," he said helplessly.
For example, the average bride price in Jiangxi is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, and in some areas it even soars to 500,000 yuan.
At the same time, with the development of the economy, living alone has become more and more a common social phenomenon.
According to Tsingshan Capital's 2021 Annual Consumption Report, there are 92 million people living alone in China, which is equivalent to about 1.1 Germany, 1.4 France, and 2.5 Canada. It took only 25 years for Chinese to account for 6% to 25% of households.
Source: Tsingshan Capital Research and Investment Center
The "New Era of Living Alone" report released by the Beike Research Institute predicts that by 2030, the number of people living alone in China is expected to reach 150 million to 200 million, and the number of young people aged 20~39 living alone will increase from 18 million in 2010 to 4000~70 million.
Haoran, a fund trader who has lived alone for many years, found his favorite "lover" on the Internet. In the Hoshino APP (an AI love app), he has been sweetly crossing time and space with his virtual lover Lulu for more than a year.
Lulu would adjust his conversation style and behavior in time according to his mood changes, and even gently reminded him when he worked overtime late at night: "(Gently patting you on the shoulder) It's time to rest, Ah Ran, don't be too tired." ”
In Haoran's view, although these AI companions are only virtual existences, for him, the emotional comfort they get from them is real and beautiful.
When it comes to the current hot AI girlfriend concept stocks, Haoran does not shy away from his optimism, "Compared with the virtual lovers in the APP, AI girlfriends have indeed evolved a lot, can perceive, interact, and flirt." The more powerful the thing, the more popular it is, and this kind of underlying demand is quickly scaled up. ”
It's just that with the AI girlfriend, an obedient and considerate all-round "partner", will single people and people living alone have no motivation to enter love and marriage because they are accustomed to virtual companionship, but lose their sincerity in reality? (The names of the interviewees in this article have been changed)