#长文创作激励计划#
ON JANUARY 27, THAT IS, THE FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER THE DEEP FERMENTATION OF DEEPSEEK'S R1 MODEL, IT WAS TRAINED TO SURPASS OPENAI IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AT A VERY LOW COST, WHICH CAUSED CONCERNS ABOUT THE VALUATION OF TECHNOLOGY STOCKS, AND BEFORE THE U.S. STOCK MARKET, NVIDIA AND TSMC FELL 7.5%, ASML FELL MORE THAN 8.5%, AND BROADCOM FELL NEARLY 9%. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all fell by more than 3%!
DEEPSEEK'S BLACK TECHNOLOGY IS TRIGGERING GLOBAL INVESTORS' CONFIDENCE IN THE AMERICAN AI TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY, META AND MUSK'S INVESTMENT IN NEXT-GENERATION MODELS HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OVERWHELMED, AND SON'S $500 BILLION AI INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN SUPPORT OF TRUMP IS ALSO IN AN EXTREMELY EMBARRASSING SITUATION! SOCIAL MEDIA PREDICTS THAT DEEPSEEK HAS LOST AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS IN MARKET CAPITALIZATION, AND CHINA'S RAPID TECHNOLOGY IS SLOWLY "HANGING" THE UNITED STATES IN A CHINESE WAY!
DeepSeek is on the rise! The Silicon Valley AI community is completely overwhelmed: Musk is confused
On January 20th, DeepSeek released the R1 version of the open AI model, and it is a completely open-source model in accordance with the MIT protocol. At the same time, DeepSeek also announced its training costs:
- 2048 NVIDIA H800 GPUs for training
- The total cost is about $5.576 million!
The results of the performance test showed that DeepSeek's performance on certain tasks in chemistry, math and coding was comparable to that of O1! The O1 here refers to OpenAI's latest O1 model, which has a training cost of about $5~$1 billion and more than tens of thousands of GPUs, according to public sources. Another model that is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's latest o1 model is META's (Zuckerberg's Facebook) LLaMA model, which took 16,000 NVIDIA H100 boards and $1 billion to train!
In addition to OpenAI and META, there are also Microsoft, Google, Amazon, xAI and other AI giants with similar costs, according to the current public information, the GPU reserves of each are also quite amazing:
- Microsoft: 750,000-900,000 equivalent H100, which is expected to reach 2.5 million-3.1 million next year
- Google: 1 million to 1.5 million pieces of H100 equivalent, and it is expected to reach 3.5 million to 4.2 million next year
- Meta: 550,000-650,000 equivalent H100, which is expected to reach 1.9 million to 2.5 million next year
- Amazon: 250,000-400,000 pieces of H100 equivalent, and it is expected to reach 1.3 million to 1.6 million next year
- xAI (Musk's AI): 100,000 pieces of H100 equivalent, and it is expected to reach 550,000-1 million next year
These AI giants spend billions of dollars at every turn! For example, the development of OpenAI's GPT-5 (codenamed "Orion") has encountered multiple challenges, the main reason is that the training cost of GPT-5 is more than $1 billion, while Musk's xAI has invested more than $5 billion!
The emergence of DeepSeek is devastating for these AI giants, because a large model that is even more powerful than OpenAI's latest o1 is made at a cost of less than 10% of the board resources (or the castrated version of NVIDIA). Guess what the result will be?
The AI bubble burst in an instant: valuations have been beaten back to square one
The first is OpenAI, because the company's only product is AI, unlike Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon and xAI, all of which have industrial support, OpenAI's market capitalization valuation is as high as $86 billion, and the launch of the most awesome O1 model is not as good as DEEPSEEK, the latter web version of Deep Thinking and Web Search is free, and the price for commercial users is also very affordable:
- DeepSeek-V3:输入 0.1-2元/百万 tokens,输出 2-8元/百万 tokens。
- DeepSeek-R1：输入 1-4元/百万 tokens，输出 16元/百万 tokens。
- DeepSeek-Chat：输入 0.1-1元/百万 tokens，输出 2元/百万 tokens。
In contrast, OpenAI's latest o1 large model requires $60 (about RMB 436) for the output of one million tokens, and the unit price is less than 3%, just like not asking for money! What is the real value of OpenAI's $86 billion market cap? It is estimated that it is less than $1 billion, and the AI bubble bursts in an instant.
The second is Nvidia Huang Jenxun, I'm afraid I'm going to run away with a bucket
ACCORDING TO DEEPSEEK'S TRAINING COST, AI GIANTS' COMPUTING RESOURCES ONLY NEED ABOUT 10% OF THE EXISTING TO TRAIN BETTER MODELS, SO THE PROBLEM IS, UNLESS YOU WANT TO TRAIN BETTER MODELS, OTHERWISE THESE GIANTS' COMPUTING CENTER RESOURCES CAN BE CLOSED BY 90%, OF COURSE, THIS IS NO PROBLEM, THEY HAVE BEEN SOLD ANYWAY, AND IT'S NOT ABOUT NVIDIA AT ALL!
So the question is, what about the orders for GPU computing cards that the major AI giants have placed for hundreds of billions of dollars in Nvidia? The computing power in the computer room is excessive, do you still want those orders? The operation of the AI giants is to cancel orders in minutes, and they would rather pay liquidated damages than rot hundreds of billions of dollars in the computer room.
Will Nvidia's AI computing power card still be sold in the next few years? The major AI giants have sold second-hand cards! The scene is comparable to the "mining disaster" of the year, and Huang's only chance is to hurry up and kneel to China, but does it work? Huawei's Ascend 910 production capacity is taking off at the moment, do you still have a chance at NVIDIA?
The third is that the United States' heavy bet is afraid that it will be a chicken and an egg
On January 21, the day after the release of DEEPSEEK-R1, under the leadership of Trump, Masayoshi Son, founder, chairman and president of SoftBank Group, together with OpenAI, Oracle and technology investment company MGX, invested $500 billion in the "Stargate" AI infrastructure project. In the future, AI standards and discourse will be completely controlled in the hands of the United States!
But people are not as good as heaven, Trump just announced this, and Wang Bang is coming! Now DeepSeek's open source model, all the parameters are told to you, even if you can't learn to provide nanny-level detailed instructions, and the resource requirements are very low, you can find any company or even an individual to carry out training calls and applications! Therefore, some netizens on foreign social media described that DeepSeek has stolen the national fortune of the United States.
Netizens described: When Chinese lift the table, Americans don't even want to drink soup!
China is using the American trick: "hanging" the United States little by little
At present, it is being discussed on social media around the world that the Chinese can always make the United States overturn in unexpected ways every time! For example, on the oil pipeline, American netizens said: Why can Chinese always overtake in corners?
There are also American hot comments: this AI war is that the Chinese in China defeated the Chinese in the United States, and in the final analysis, it is the Chinese's own civil war;
The French also came to join in the fun: those developed high-tech in the United States were all made by the Chinese, and the Chinese have the highest IQ in the world;
AI COMPUTING POWER RESTRICTS CHINA'S ACCESS, AI APPLICATIONS ALSO RESTRICT CHINA, WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS EVERYONE HAS SEEN, IF THE CURRENT SPEED OF DEEPSEEK CONTINUES, THE FUTURE AI FIELD WILL BASICALLY HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE UNITED STATES! In addition to using the old routine of national security to force allies to choose the high-priced AI of the United States, the U.S. government has no way to solve this problem in the field of technology!
A DEEPSEEK HAS ALREADY MADE THE UNITED STATES ANXIOUS, BUT THE HOUSE LEAK HAPPENED TO RAIN OVERNIGHT, AND THE DISASTER IS NOT A ONE-WAY TODAY! The United States is suffering a series of critical attacks from China, and to put it mildly, China is slowly "hanging" the United States in the way that the Americans do best!
Lithography machine: The Chinese are really going to break through
AT THE SAME TIME THAT DEEPSEEK DOMINATES THE SCREEN ON GLOBAL SOCIAL MEDIA, THERE IS ALSO A HOT SPOT THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED BY EVERYONE HAS JUST PASSED, DUTCH PRIME MINISTER SHOFF SAID IN AN INTERVIEW DURING THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM'S 2025 ANNUAL MEETING THAT THE DUTCH GOVERNMENT WANTS TO DECIDE FOR ITSELF WHAT KIND OF POLICY TO IMPLEMENT ON THE ISSUE OF DUTCH LITHOGRAPHY GIANT ASML'S EXPORTS TO CHINA.
This means that the Netherlands has begun to loosen its ban on the export of lithography machines to China! The reason is not complicated, China's DUV lithography machine has begun to be exported, but according to the search and confirmation of the flower planter, there is no official source of this news, let's think it is fake news! But one thing can be confirmed, China has broken through the 28nm DUV lithography machine!
I believe you should have an understanding of the lithography machine, the most advanced lithography machine is the 2-3nm extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, and the high-performance mobile phone CPU is from this extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, so what is the threat to the Netherlands if China's breakthrough 28nm CPU is there? I guess everyone thinks so, in fact, Americans thought so back then!
But in fact, everyone ignores a problem, DUV lithography machine accounts for 70% of ASML's total sales and 90% of the profit, because the R & D cost of DUV lithography machine has long been diluted, and now every one sold is a high profit, and the R & D cost of advanced process lithography machine still accounts for a large part of it, so DUV lithography machine is sold quickly!
At the same time, there is another problem, at present, most of the chips are above 28nm process, this level of chip technology is mature, is used in various fields, such as computers, vehicle specification chips and communications, etc., accounting for up to 70% + of total chip sales, if the 14nm level is done, then it will account for more than 85%.
Therefore, when China was sanctioned by the United States for high-end process chips, it did not stumble on the process below 14nm, but tried to produce 7nm chips with the existing process, but made great efforts to break through at the 14~28nm level, as mentioned above, 28nm accounted for ASML's main export profits, and at the same time, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also have a large number of chip manufacturing plants of this level.
Not long ago, everyone knows that manufacturers in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have complained that Chinese mainland suddenly lowered the price of chips with 28nm and other processes, not by a few percentage points, but by five or even three folds, directly turning over a bunch of 28nm chip manufacturers.
Behind this is that Chinese mainland has broken through in this level of process, since you can no longer be limited, then start slaughtering! Surround the mid-to-high-end process with the low-end process, and gradually win the mid-to-high-end manufacturing in the chip field! According to the data on China's key export commodities in 2024 released by the customs, 298.11 billion integrated circuits (chips) will be exported in 2024, with an amount of 159.499 billion US dollars (1.2 trillion yuan). It has grown steadily from 61.4 billion US dollars in 2016 and has not been affected by sanctions at all, and with the breakthrough of DUV lithography machine technology, it is estimated that there will be a wave of explosive growth in 2025~2026.
So ASML is really panicking, 50% of ASML's sales profits come from the Chinese market, this time DUV breakthrough, not only ASML has no DUV business to do, but with China's breakthrough DUV will begin to roll production capacity, volume price, resulting in ASML losing orders for lithography machines in other parts of the world, which is 90% of ASML's profit source, which may lead to ASML direct bankruptcy!
This case is very similar to the shield machine of the year, which was sold to China at a sky-high price and restricted to various uses! The end result is that China began to build its own shield machine, and the end result is of course China not only got it, but also accounted for 65% of the global market share and more than 90% of the domestic market. Isn't it quite exciting? Now the field of lithography machine has begun to start, and the flower grower estimates that ASML will encounter a dilemma in the next 3~5 years! There is a high probability that the future will encounter the same ending as the AI.
ASML collapsed, the Western IC industry avalanche, those companies such as TSMC built on ASML all rely on people's breath, where is the way out in the future? Do you build your own lithography machine like China? Of course, ASML will not go bankrupt, but if you want to fight 95% of the world as it did back then, the era of how high you sell will never come again, the only way is to roll with China, but who can get past China?
China is on the rise in full force: "hanging" the United States in the American way
China was born with sanctions from the United States, first the Batumi Association, then the Wassenaar Agreement, then the Cox Report, and then the Wolf Clause, and finally the high-tech threat to China launched by Trump and Biden, from military equipment to advanced equipment in the manufacturing field and chips in the high-tech field, as well as computing power and applications in the era of lithography machines and AI, the United States has all-encompassing restrictions and containment of China, as has been shown above, the blockade of AI and lithography machines is on the verge of bankruptcy!
The blockade in the field of manufacturing equipment has also gone bankrupt, such as shield machines, such as port machinery, such as large aircraft, such as high-precision machine tools, etc., China has risen strongly in the fields of automobiles and new energy, and most of the problems in the manufacturing field have been solved! Another particularly important blockade in the military field, with the test flight of two sixth-generation aircraft on December 26 last year, has also become a thing of the past!
Of course, this is not the past tense for the United States, but in the future tense, China began to fight in the United States in these fields, who can roll better, the United States has lost in the manufacturing industry, the United States + the European Union's manufacturing industry is not as good as China, so what about in the military field? Military and manufacturing are actually related, China has broken through the sixth-generation aircraft, the United States has not yet skimmed the eight characters, China and the United States have actually fallen into an arms race, but this will be the United States playing the role of the Soviet Union, and China is playing the role of the United States!
IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THE UNITED STATES WANTED IDEOLOGY TO MAKE THE SOVIET UNION DOUBT ITSELF FIRST, BUT THIS TIME IT HAS ALSO TURNED AROUND, AND CHINA HAS TAKEN THE LEAD OF THE UNITED STATES IN TERMS OF SOCIAL MEDIA DISCOURSE, BECAUSE THE TIKTOK INCIDENT HAS CAUSED A LARGE NUMBER OF AMERICAN PEOPLE TO GO TO CHINESE SOCIAL MEDIA ONLINE, WHICH IS REALLY A SPECTACLE IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD INTERNET!
"Hang" the United States with the routines of the Americans! If you are not satisfied, you can come to war