Text: Steamed buns
Editor|Jiang Yuchi
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preface
It has been two years and eight months since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and now it is the end of the crossbow, and the final outcome may be imminent, and the curtain of this war will fall.
And at this critical juncture, there is constant news that North Korea sent sappers to aid Russia, although the rumors have been refuted, but Korea has received an accurate news.
It turned out that North Korea sent not engineers, but 12,000 special forces, and this situation made Ukraine nervous, so can the entry of North Korea end this war early?
Trump's "King Bomb": 24 Hours to End the War?
"Give me 24 hours and I can resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict". Trump spoke again in astonishment. The former leader has always been known for his unsurprising words.
And this time, his target is the Eastern European Plain, which has long been filled with gunsmoke. The supporters were excited, as if they saw hope for peace.
Those who oppose it scoffed at it, believing that it was nothing more than Mr. Trump's usual rhetoric, just to gain attention.
Trump's promise of a "truce" is simple and crude, and it hits the nail on the head: end the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. He vowed that if he could re-enter the White House, he was confident that Russia and Ukraine would shake hands and make peace in a very short time.
24 hours may be a rhetorical exaggeration, but the message behind it is clear: ending the war is the Trump administration's top priority.
As soon as this remark came out, it was like a bomb in the United States political arena and instantly caused an uproar. Democrats took the lead in accusing Trump of being "pro-Russian" and "bowing to Putin."
They believe that Trump's "truce" plan is tantamount to sacrificing the interests of Ukraine and making Russia the ultimate winner.
What's more, they dug up the "old scores" of Trump and Putin, trying to prove that the two have a close relationship, and Trump will definitely fulfill his promise of a "truce" to Putin after taking office.
In the face of doubts from the outside world, Trump changed his rhetoric and no longer mentioned a "truce", but said that he would "mediate negotiations". There is a big difference behind this difference.
A "truce" means that both sides immediately cease military operations and return to the negotiating table. Negotiation is a long and complex process full of uncertainties.
The media generally believes that Trump's "negotiations" are nothing more than a fig leaf for a "truce". His real goal is still to end the war as soon as possible, even at the expense of Ukraine.
For Ukraine, Trump's truce promise is more like an unresolved sword hanging over its head. After Trump takes office, United States' aid policy to Ukraine may change.
Without United States funding and weapons support, Ukraine will naturally not last long, and worse, Trump may demand territorial concessions from Ukraine in exchange for a ceasefire from Russia.
Trump's promise of a "truce" seems to have created an opportunity for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but in fact it has made negotiations more difficult. But his tough stance could exacerbate the tension between Russia and Ukraine, making it more difficult for the two sides to compromise.
And, depending on Mr. Trump's personality, his meddling could also disrupt the existing negotiation process, making it more complicated and unpredictable.
The gears of war, no one is spared
On the other side, Korea President Yoon Seok-yue urgently convened a security meeting, and the atmosphere of the meeting was very tense, but it was not the situation on the peninsula, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict thousands of miles away.
Talk of North Korea's military support for Russia has been widely circulated. Although such news is eye-catching enough, it ultimately makes people feel that North Korea's role in this conflict is more like a marginal participant, and it has nothing to do with the overall situation.
But this time it looks like something has changed. According to information received by Korea, North Korea sent an elite special operations force of 12,000 people, which is like a sharp knife about to be inserted into this protracted conflict.
For a long time, the DPRK army has given people the impression that its equipment is backward and its logistics are worrisome, and it is difficult to imagine how much of a role such an army can play in modern warfare.
But those who are familiar with the military know that the special forces of the DPRK and the DPRK army in our impression are completely different concepts.
These special forces are the elite of the DPRK army, and they are the elite fighters selected by thousands of people, they are well-equipped and well-trained, and they are especially good at infiltration, raids, sabotage, and other combat missions behind enemy lines.
More importantly, they possess a quality that the Russian army now needs so much, a tenacious will to fight. With the addition of this force, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may indeed have unexpected changes.
Zelensky's dilemma, the West's calculations
Now Ukraine is like a dilapidated ship, struggling to support in the wind and rain, and is in danger of capsizing at any time.
The morale of the Ukrainian army has fallen to the bottom, many soldiers are either killed on the battlefield or deserters, and most of the rest are exhausted and have no hope of victory.
What's more, the fighting in the Kursk direction has also begun to be unfavorable to Ukraine, and Zelensky is desperate and throws the last elite troops into this battle, trying to replicate last year's "Kharkiv miracle", but reality, but it gave him a heavy blow.
The Russian army withstood the offensive of the Ukrainian army and launched a counterattack, and now, the front in the Kursk direction has advanced to the territory of Ukraine, and the land once occupied by the Ukrainian army is being recaptured by the Russian army little by little.
What makes Zelensky even more desperate is that the Western world, the backing he once thought was impregnable, is now beginning to waver. The weapons and equipment provided by NATO countries, although advanced, cannot compensate for Ukraine's huge losses of soldiers.
How many people have died in Ukraine after the war has been fought so far, perhaps even Zelensky himself cannot say, but one thing is certain, that is, Ukraine has reached the point where it cannot bear it.
In order to replenish the troops, the Ukraine government has reached the point of capturing strong men, but even this cannot meet the needs of the front.
It's not that Western countries don't want to provide more help, but they don't want to do it. United States is now mired in a "proxy war", and between Ukraine and Israel, United States ultimately chose Israel.
For United States, Ukraine is just a pawn used to consume Russia, while Israel is the foundation of United States in the Middle East, which is more important, United States know very well in their hearts.
And North Korea's decision to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict at this time must have been well thought out. For many years, the DPRK has been under sanctions and blockades by Western countries, and the international space has been seriously compressed.
Russia is one of the few countries that has good relations with North Korea. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, North Korea has publicly expressed its support for Russia and condemned the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries, led by United States.
The dispatch of troops to aid Russia is based on geopolitical considerations on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also to take this opportunity to break the blockade of the West and enhance its international status.
North Korea's shrewd intentions are also very risky, and North Korea's participation will certainly complicate the Russia-Ukraine conflict and may even lead to greater contradictions.
Conclusion: The call for peace, the echo of history
Nearly two years have passed since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has not only brought profound suffering to the people of Ukraine and Russia, but also brought great uncertainty to world peace and development.
Ukraine, once a rich and beautiful country, but now it is full of ruins, the economy is in recession, people are displaced, and I really don't know when it will be able to regain its former vitality.
The road to peace is never smooth. Russia and Ukraine have not yet found a common ground to sit down and negotiate, and the conflict continues, but the dawn of peace may not be so far away.
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Information sources:
Luzhong Morning Post 2024-07-21 He promised: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be ended
Beijing News 2024-10-18 South Korean intelligence agencies said that the first batch of 1,500 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia and will be put into the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian war