CFIC Introduction
Since the policy "combination punch", the A-share market has rebounded significantly, and the market has continued to fluctuate in the rebound, which is undoubtedly a huge test for the active equity funds that are in the position building period, and the fluctuation of the net value of the fund has become the focus of market attention.
Since September 24, the "one line, one game, one meeting" policy "combination punch" has been launched, the A-share market has rebounded significantly, and the market has continued to fluctuate in the rebound, which is undoubtedly a huge test for active equity funds that are in the opening period, and the fluctuation of the net value of the fund has become the focus of market attention.
Judging from the changes in the net value of these products, some products have rapidly increased their positions during the recent market turmoil, but the effectiveness of the increase mainly depends on the fund manager's judgment and grasp of the market rhythm; The pace of position building for some products with large issuance scale is relatively stable.
Test your ability to choose the right time
In the recent market turmoil stage, the position building of the new active equity fund is more obvious in the fluctuation of the fund's net value. Especially during the market adjustment period from September 30 to October 9, Wind data shows that the rise and fall of the net value of single-day funds such as Dongxing Growth Select A and Allianz China Select A have been significantly amplified compared with before. However, from the perspective of returns, fund managers may have played a key role in the grasp of the timing of increasing positions in this round of market.
For example, before the National Day holiday, the net value of Dongxing Growth Preferred A fund rose sharply with the market recovery, and on September 26, September 27, and September 30, the share of fund A rose by 4.39%, 6.27%, and 12.38% respectively; After the holiday, on October 8, it rose by 16.73%. Although the net value has rebounded since then, on the whole, from September 24 to October 17, the net value of the fund's A share has risen by more than 27%, ranking in the forefront of similar new products.
During the same period, Allianz China Select A also seized the market opportunity. In the week of September 27, the net value of the fund's A share rose by 13.03%, and on September 30, it rose by 10.94%, and the volatility range was significantly higher than before, or there were signs of increasing positions.
Some new products missed opportunities because they did not step on the market rhythm. For example, before the National Day holiday, an active equity fund established at the end of August under a fund company in South China basically maintained a single-day rise and fall of about 0.1%; From October 9 to October 11, the net value of the fund's A share fluctuated violently, falling by more than 5% for three consecutive days.
Cumulative absolute returns or more important
When combing, the China Securities Journal reporter found that the recent performance of some active equity funds with large issuance scale is relatively stable, and the overall fluctuation of the net value of the fund is relatively small.
For example, the new funds such as Industrial Securities Global Dividend A managed by Zhang Xiaofeng, Dacheng Zhuoyuan Vision A managed by Xu Yan, Yongying Qixin A managed by Xu Tuo, Merchants Equilibrium Strategy A managed by Cai Yubin, JPMorgan Balanced Selection A managed by Liang Peng, and Yongying Rongan A managed by Gao Nan have maintained a relatively stable pace of position building in this round of market since September 24, and the rise and fall in recent days have basically been within 1%.
Taking J.P. Morgan Balanced Select A as an example, although the fund was launched on September 3 with Allianz China Select A, its position may be more stable from the perspective of its net asset performance. After the National Day holiday, the fund entered an open period, and the net value of the fund rose and fell within 0.1% in a single day. Since September 24, the net value of the fund's A share has increased by 0.22%.
In the stage of market volatility and a sharp rebound in growth style, the net value of some new funds can still remain stable, which may be related to factors such as the relatively stable stock position of the product and the allocation of stable dividend assets.
An active equity fund manager in Shanghai told reporters that in many cases, the rhythm of the product's position building has been determined in the early stage, and when the market comes quickly, although the new fund suffers more losses in the position, it is still worth maintaining a stable position building rhythm as a whole. If the market rebounds sharply during the opening period, it will indeed make the net value of the product underperform the market in the short term, but striving for excess returns is not the primary goal of the new fund, and it may be more important for customers to strive for absolute returns. "For new products, the most important thing in the opening period is to accumulate enough income, and strive to make customers make money or lose less money when they open." The fund manager said.
The valuation pivot has risen significantly
In the face of the recent A-share shock and rebound, some industry insiders believe that the current policy reversal is certain; In the context of large-scale debt, the easy monetary environment with low interest rates is also certain; Coupled with the fact that the Fed is in a cycle of interest rate cuts, although the market may have twists and turns, the rise in the valuation center is visible to the naked eye.
With the current macro policy certainty, Yongying Fund believes that trading opportunities will increase significantly, and the A-share recovery market is worth looking forward to. From the medium-term perspective, the magnitude of the fiscal force and the actual credit easing effect are the core factors that determine the medium-term reversal of A-shares.
Yongying Fund said that more policies are expected to be implemented in the future to support the continuous recovery of economic fundamentals. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI did not continue to deteriorate in September, and the domestic consumption data during the National Day period were generally in line with market expectations, and the emergence of the economic bottom is worth looking forward to.
At the capital level, the central bank has created new policy tools to support the capital market. On October 18, the detailed rules for the swap facilitation were released, and 20 brokerage funds were qualified to apply, and follow-up funds are expected to gradually flow into the support market. At the same time, the proportion of residents' deposits in the market value of stocks is at a historical high, and Yongying Fund believes that if the follow-up market money-making effect gradually recovers, the incremental funds in the medium-term dimension are also worth looking forward to.
Cheng Yu, manager of Allianz China Select Fund, said that it is recommended to pay attention to two main opportunities in the fourth quarter. First, high-quality growth, especially those that benefit from the global technological revolution and China's economic transformation, such as AI, low-altitude economy, satellite Internet, data elements, etc., will receive more attention in the context of the recovery of overall investment confidence and improved liquidity in the market. the second is Dividend 2.0, including companies with good cash flow and dividend growth; Companies with sustainable, relatively high ROE or improved ROE in the future; High-dividend companies in Hong Kong stocks that have benefited from the Fed's interest rate cuts, mainly in industries such as communications, banking, and construction.
Source of this article: China Securities Journal
Author: Wang Hejing
WeChat editor: Liu Sile
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