Ottawa, Oct. 18 (Xinhua) -- If we do not turn the pages of history, it is difficult to imagine that the Canada of "neighbors + hardcore allies" was once the enemy and biggest threat to United States. Today, Canada relies heavily on the United States in the global economic and trade system, and also enjoys the low-cost security provided by the United States because of its geographical proximity. However, this raises the question of "presence" in this developed country: can another big tree grow under the big tree?
A man in Brussels, Belgium, watches a group photo of United States President Joe Biden (right) and Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attending the G7 summit on the screen on March 24, 2022. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zheng Huansong)
History: The "Sense of Presence" Burned by the Fire
In recent years, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather related to climate change, Canada's annual "as scheduled" forest fire season has become more ferocious. Fortunately, Canada is vast and sparsely populated, with populations concentrated in major cities, far from most fires. As a result, the raging forest fires did not cause any civilian deaths.
It was only when the smoke from the more than 1,000 forest fires "unsurprisingly" invaded southward United States causing a sharp deterioration in air quality in many United States states, that public opinion turned its attention to the "birthplace" of the smoke, and regional news was upgraded to "international" news, reminding people of the "real threat" to the United States northern neighbor.
On August 18, wildfires in the northwestern Colombia province of Canada caused billowing smoke. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of Canada British Colombia Wildfire Administration)
In fact, the more famous and "real threaten" fire in United States is the fire that burned to Washington, the capital of United States, during the American-British War more than 210 years ago -
On June 18, 1812, United States declared war on United Kingdom and attacked the United Kingdom North American colonies, now Canada provinces. From October 1813 to March 1814, as the war in Europe slowed, United Kingdom reinforced North America with additional troops. At that time, half of the soldiers in the British army were Canada militia. On August 24, 1814, British forces invaded Washington, D.C., setting fire to several buildings, including the presidential palace (the building was later named "The White House" because it was painted white to hide the scars of the fire) and the Capitol. This is the only time since the founding of the United States in 1776 that its capital has been occupied by a foreign power.
Canada was truly "forged" by the American and British Wars: the two major colonies of the English-speaking and French-speaking regions, as well as the indigenous tribes, united to resist the invasion of the United States, and the internal cohesion was unprecedentedly strengthened, which eventually led to the union of this British North American colony into the Commonwealth of Canada in 1867.
Due to the geographical proximity of the United States and Canada, Canada was initially positioned by United Kingdom as a vanguard against United States. With the easing of relations between Britain and the United States, Canada became a link between Britain and the United States. After two world wars, the Anglo-Saxons on both sides of the Atlantic finally formed an alliance, resulting in the world's longest undefended border between the United States and Canada, which stretches for 8,891 kilometers.
Police stand guard on the United States side of the Rainbow Bridge crossing on the U.S.-Canada border on November 22, 2023. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of the New York Governor's Office)
Reality: Living in the shadow of United States
After the end of World War II, with its participation in the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its membership in the G7, the "club of developed countries", Canada's influence and voice in international affairs were amplified. So far, a major priority of Canada's foreign policy has also been how to enhance Canada's voice in international affairs.
However, it should be noted that Canada's economy and population are only about one-tenth of that of United States. The United States is its largest market and largest investor. Canada economic development is deeply bound to United States, security and defense are heavily dependent on United States. United States decisive influence on the Canada, casting a deep "shadow" on the latter.
In recent years, Canada's economic growth has been sluggish, and the gap between the United States and Canada in economic strength has continued to widen. Canada's GDP per capita was equivalent to 92% of that of the United States in 1981 and fell to 73% in 2022. According to a report released last year by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Canada ranked 37th out of 47 countries in terms of investment growth from 2011 to 2015; From 2015 to 2023, the ranking fell to 44th.
This is the aurora taken on October 10 at Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Yang Shu)
"It's good to enjoy the shade with your back against a big tree", but Canada wants to get out of this "shade" and refresh its sense of existence. In recent years, with climate change and the melting of Arctic sea ice at an accelerated rate, the Canada government has judged that the Arctic Ocean will become the most convenient shipping route between Europe and East Asia by 2050, which will significantly enhance Canada's military strategy and global geopolitical status.
According to the strategic thinking of the Canada government, Canada will continue to adhere to the two pillars of defense policy, NATO's collective defense and Canada-US defense cooperation, and at the same time stabilize the Arctic by significantly increasing military spending, so that Canada can participate in international affairs from the perspective of strength.
However, military analysts point out that Canada's existing military strength simply cannot defend in the waters of the Arctic Ocean. In addition, it cannot be ignored the fact that for more than 30 years, Canada's defense budget has not only failed to reach the benchmark level of 2% of GDP for NATO member countries' defense budgets, but is even lower than the average of NATO member countries, currently accounting for only 1.33% of GDP.
Population: the ultimate shackle of "presence".
Canada is a large country, second only to Russia in terms of territorial area, with vast territory, rich resources, developed economy and leading science and technology. However, why does such a big country always live in the "shadow" of its neighbors? One factor that cannot be bypassed is that Canada's population is much smaller than that of United States.
Canada has a population of about 40 million people. According to Statistics Canada, immigration will continue to be the main driver of population growth in the coming decades, and Canada's population is expected to reach 47.7 million in 2041, of which 34% are immigrants. Immigrants and children born in Canada together will account for 52.4% of the total population, or 25 million.
This is an autumn scene taken by drone near Route 60 in Ontario, Canada, on October 8. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Zou Zheng)
Canada's policy orientation to increase its population by absorbing immigrants is indisputable. In the 155 years from 1867 to 2022, Canada's annual population growth rate has mostly grown at a rate of just over 1%. Based on the 155-year population growth trend described above, Canada could achieve its vision of 100 million people by 2100.
Optimistic analysts believe that increasing the population to 100 million will reduce the burden of public services on the government in areas such as health care and old-age security, which means that more skilled workers will participate in economic activities and stimulate innovation and vitality. Those who hold this argument believe that Canada is still a victim of underpopulation, and this vast country still does not have enough population to form a consumer market and tax base, and the accumulation of talent reserves is insufficient.
Pessimistic analysts believe that as the aging population accelerates, Canada's economic problems are not only getting worse, but may not even be solved at all. An aging population means trillions of dollars in financial burden, and even if more and more people choose to delay retirement, it will not be enough to compensate for the consequences of an aging population. Another concern is that Canada's population growth could come to an abrupt halt by mid-century.
"Too far from heaven, too close to United States." Canada itself has a long-term contradiction between a large geographical country and a small population country, and has lived in the shadow of United States for a long time, it is almost impossible to give a positive answer to the question of "sense of existence" in the short term.
Source: Xinhuanet client