Special attention
Today's steel spot trading is poor, the disk basically maintains shocks, the spot itself falls, the thread has fallen greatly, the spot demand has weakened significantly in the past two days, the quotation has decreased significantly, and the market atmosphere has turned cold. At present, the macro policy is expected to fall slightly, but the pressure on production growth is also greater, so how should steel prices go today? And then look down...
Industry news and analysis
01. Pay close attention to establishing and improving the financing coordination mechanism to support small and micro enterprises
On the 15th, a video conference was jointly held to mobilize and deploy the financing coordination mechanism for small and micro enterprises, emphasizing that in order to guide credit funds to quickly and directly reach grassroots small and micro enterprises, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the National Development and Reform Commission took the lead in establishing a working mechanism to support the financing coordination of small and micro enterprises.
Analyst's view: improve the financing coordination mechanism of small and micro enterprises, promote the healthy development of the real estate industry by reducing financing costs and optimizing the financing environment, and then effectively boost the overall confidence of the steel industry and benefit the trend of steel prices.
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02. In September, the sales volume of internal combustion engines was 4.184 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%
In September, the sales volume of internal combustion engines was 4,184,300 units, an increase of 10.67% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 6.40%; The power was 255,362,800 kilowatts, an increase of 10.02% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.39%.
Analyst's view: the implementation of the trade-in policy in the home appliance and automobile industry has driven market demand, thereby promoting the increase in sales of internal combustion engines, and is expected to form favorable support for the steel industry with the support of the policy, driving more steel demand.
03. The mainland's financial data for September was released
According to central bank data, at the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 309.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, higher than expected and the previous value; M1 balances decreased by 7.4% year-on-year; At the end of September, the stock of social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. At the end of September, the increase in the scale of social financing from January to September was 25.66 trillion yuan, 3.68 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.
Analyst's view: M2 growth shows that monetary policy has maintained solid growth, which may be related to the recent incremental policies that have boosted market confidence and supported the growth of monetary aggregates. The stock of social financing increased by 8% year-on-year, indicating that the amount of funds received by the real economy from the financial system continued to grow. Good steel price trend.
Futures · billet dynamics
In terms of futures on October 16, today's black series main force fluctuated and fell, thread closed at 3447 down 40, hot coil closed at 3587 down 35, coking coal closed at 1432 down 52.5, coke closed at 2101.5 down 62.5, and iron ore closed at 782.5 down 15.
On October 16, Songting Iron and Steel in Qian'an District, Tangshan, the general billet resources dropped by 20 to 3,200 including tax.
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Macro news
01. Hunan Iron and Steel Group invested in the construction of a 1 million ton project
On October 8, 2024, Lianyuan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. was accepted to invest in the construction of a 1 million ton converter steel slag treatment environmental protection upgrading project.
02. Fed's Daly said that he would cut interest rates one or two more times this year
Daly reiterated on the same day that she thinks the Fed is likely to cut rates one or two more times this year, by 25 basis points each time. In the long run, current interest rates are "a long way off" from where they could be.
03. Tianjin has completely canceled the 8-year purchase restriction policy
In terms of abolishing restrictive measures for housing, the "Notice" proposes to cancel the restrictive measures for the purchase and transfer of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in Tianjin. Guidance will no longer be imposed on the upper limit of the sales price of newly built commercial housing. At the same time, the standards for ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing in Tianjin will be abolished.
Steel trend analysis
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Building materials: Prices fell yesterday
At present, the supply is stable, the inventory continues to decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent for the time being. The fund availability rate of the sample construction site was 63.54%, up 0.28% week-on-week, and improved month-on-month. In the event of a subsequent mismatch between supply and demand, prices will remain under pressure. It is expected that the spot price of building materials will fall today.
Plates: Prices fell yesterday
The macro role has gradually weakened, and in the absence of a good driving force, the market has gradually returned to the industry. Steel mills continue to resume production, hot metal increases, while terminal demand is average, plates tend to accumulate storage, raw materials and finished products are under pressure. It is expected that the spot price of the plate will fall today.
Strip: Prices fell yesterday
The press conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Bureau of Statistics will be held soon, and the macro policy expectations are still in place, underpinning the trend of commodity prices. However, after the spot price rose, the downstream terminal received a low degree, the transaction slowed down, and the sentiment weakened. It is expected that the spot price of strip steel will remain stable today.
Pipes: Prices fell yesterday
Yesterday, the price support of raw material pipe blanks still existed, but the market traders and pipe factories were not in high price sentiment, the overall inquiry was poor, the demand continuity was insufficient, and the market bearish sentiment increased. It is expected that the prices of seamless pipes and welded pipes will remain stable today.
Raw material trend analysis
Bifocal: Prices fell yesterday
Affected by the expected weakening, the accumulation of inventory in some coal mines has accelerated, the sales pressure has increased, and the coal price has been reduced by 5-10 yuan. Pessimism in the Ordos region intensified, shipments continued to slow down, trading activity continued to decline, and coal mines fell slightly along with the port market. It is expected that the price of bifocals will remain stable and weak today.
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Billet: Prices fell yesterday
Domestic fiscal policy is the focus in the later stage, but the market has a strong wait-and-see mood; Billet procurement is limited, and inventory continues to be high; Iron ore follows steel, and the support is general. It is expected that the price of billet will remain stable today.
Iron ore: Prices fell yesterday
The performance of steel supply and demand data after the holiday is acceptable, but the recent continuous decline in steel prices and spot transactions have fallen one after another, which has slightly lost market confidence, and the overall market performance is still relatively weak, and iron ore has followed the decline. Iron ore prices are expected to remain stable and weak today.
Today's steel price forecast
The press conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Bureau of Statistics will be held soon, and the macro policy expectations are still in place, underpinning the trend of commodity prices. The total inventory of the five major timber has declined, the demand for the table has increased, the relationship between supply and demand has improved, and the peak season is still expected. At present, after the spot price rises, the downstream terminal has a low degree of reception, the transaction has slowed down, and the sentiment has weakened. On the whole, today's steel prices will fall.
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At present, there are many news rumors in the market, and steel prices are constantly stimulated by the news, fluctuating up and down, with limited amplitude, and generally staying in the range of jumping back and forth. The current market is not stable, waiting for strong policy support before operating. It is expected that today's spot price will fluctuate and fall, with a range of 20-50 yuan.
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