Will "Putin the Great" be airborne in Brazil?
This issue has now become the most concerned hot topic among netizens all over the world.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't a Hollywood blockbuster, but the biggest attraction ahead of this year's G20 summit.
Speaking of which, this G20 summit has been full of gunpowder from the beginning.
Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ended, the International Criminal Court issued another "arrest warrant" to Putin, which directly pushed Putin to the forefront.
And Brazil, as the host, is sandwiched between the United States and Russia, and it is even more dilemma.
This year's G20 summit is scheduled for November 18 and 19 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The G20 summit is mainly about economic topics.
But now, all eyes are on Putin: will he come at all?
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin's international itinerary has been pitiful, and in March this year, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him, accusing him of war crimes.
Now if Putin wants to go abroad, he must first see which country dares to pick him up.
Mexico didn't mention it, but Brazil is a member of the ICC, and according to the rules, they have to honor arrest warrants.
But the question is, who is Putin?
That's the president of Russia!
If he is really arrested, isn't that tantamount to a war with Russia?
Ukraine, of course, is struggling to arch the fire.
The Zelensky government has always wanted to discredit Russia, and now that the opportunity has come, it will certainly not show mercy.
They openly called for Brazil, demanding that Brazil fulfill their international obligations to seize Putin and send him to the International Criminal Court for trial.
This wave of operations in Ukraine, which is clearly about the law, is actually playing the emotional card and exerting moral pressure on Brazil.
They want to tell the world: Look, Russia is like this, and you don't hurry to draw a line with it?
For Putin, going to Brazil to attend the G20 summit is indeed not a small risk.
First of all, the ICC arrest warrant is like a sword hanging over his head, and no one dares to guarantee that Brazil will not suddenly turn its face.
Second, even if the Brazil government withstands pressure and does not arrest Putin, it cannot be ruled out that other countries, especially United States, will make small moves in secret.
After all, United States is Ukraine's "golden father", and they wish that something would happen to Putin.
Finally, even if Putin arrives safely in Brazil, it does not mean that everything is fine.
Western countries can use the platform of the G20 summit to launch a new round of public opinion offensive against Russia, so that Putin cannot come to power.
Therefore, Putin's "trip to Brazil" this time is not so much to go to the summit as an adventure or even a trap.
For Brazil, hosting this G20 summit is like picking up a hot potato.
On one side is the aggressive United States, on the other side is the difficult to mess with Russia, Brazil is sandwiched in the middle, it is really not human inside and out.
Relations between Brazil and Russia have always been good.
Russia and Brazil cooperate in the fields of energy, agriculture and the military, and Russia is an important partner for Brazil.
If relations between the two countries deteriorate because of the arrest of Putin, Brazil will lose a lot.
But the point is, the relationship between Brazil and United States is also iron.
United States is one of the largest trading partners of Brazil, and the economic development of Brazil is inseparable from the "support" of United States.
If United States is offended because of Putin's affairs, then Brazil will not have a good time.
Therefore, Brazil can only carefully walk a tightrope between the United States and Russia, trying not to offend either side.
While telling Ukraine that "we will seriously consider your request", they also hinted to Russia that "President Putin should not come, it is too dangerous."
In fact, Brazil is not the first country to encounter such a problem.
A similar situation occurred when Putin visited Mongolia in September.
At that time, the arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court had already taken effect, but Mongolia simply ignored it and received Putin warmly.
Why did Mongolia dare to do this?
To put it bluntly, it is because they are too close to Russia, and Russia really wants to retaliate, and Mongolia cannot bear it at all.
The situation in Brazil is not the same as in Mongolia.
Brazil is farther away from Russia and closer to United States, so they don't have to worry about the direct threat from Russia like Mongolia.
But the problem is that Brazil cannot completely ignore Russia's influence either.
After all, Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and still has a certain say in international affairs.
Therefore, Brazil can only take one step at a time, hoping that Putin will be more interesting and take the initiative to give up participating in the G20 summit.
In fact, whether Putin will go to Brazil or not, this matter has not yet been decided.
What is certain is that whether Putin participates or not, this G20 summit will certainly not be peaceful.
After all, the current G20 summit is not what it used to be.
In the past, people came together mainly to solve the problems of the world economy.
Now, the G20 summit looks more like a conference of Western condemnation of Russia and pressure on China.
After the Ukraine crisis, Western countries have been putting pressure on Russia on various international occasions, and the G20 summit is naturally no exception and has become a key place for them.
If Putin does go to Brazil, then Western countries will certainly not let go of this opportunity, and they will point all the fingers at Putin, forcing him to admit his mistakes, apologize, and even make concessions.
For Russia, the G20 summit has now become a "place of right and wrong".
It's better not to go there than to get angry.
Anyway, now the influence of the G20 summit is not as great as before, and even if Russia does not participate, it is not a big deal.
What's more, Russia now has more important things to do, which is to end the Ukraine crisis as soon as possible.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fought for almost a year, and although Russia has achieved certain advantages, it has not yet fully controlled the situation.
Now many Ukraine troops, with the help of Western countries, continue to fight back against Russia, and the pressure felt by Russia is gradually increasing.
In this case, Russia must focus on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the "face project" of the G20 summit can be saved.
Of course, Russia will not easily abandon the platform of the G20 summit.
If Putin finally decides not to go to Brazil, Russia will certainly send other senior officials to the summit to explain Russia's position and refute the accusations of Western countries.
Overall, the G20 summit has now become a platform for political wrestling.
Whether Putin will go to Brazil or not is just a façade, behind which is the intricate entanglement of interests between Russia and Western countries.
The G20 summit is only a small part of the global political wrangling.
At present, the world situation is undergoing profound changes, and all kinds of contradictions are intricately intertwined, and no one can stay out of them.
The situation in Ukraine has now become one of the main concerns of everyone.
This conflict is not only a battle between Russia and Ukraine, but also a game between Russia and Western countries.
Western countries hope to use the situation in Ukraine to reduce Russia's power and maintain its dominant position.
Russia hopes to break through the blockade of Western countries and protect its strategic interests through this conflict.
In addition to the issue of Ukraine, the situation on the Korean Peninsula also attracts the attention of the world.
Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has become tense again, and United States and Korea have frequently held joint military exercises to exert military pressure on the DPRK.
Russia is an old friend of the DPRK and will certainly not sit idly by.
Russia recently said it was willing to provide military assistance to North Korea in response to threats from the United States and South Korea.
This action by Russia will certainly increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula and further complicate the situation in the entire region.
The international situation is complex and volatile, and all countries are making decisions based on their own interests and judgments.
Brazil has chosen to maintain a balance between the United States and Russia, not wanting to offend neither United States nor Russia.
Ukraine hopes to use the strength of the international community to increase pressure on Russia and push Russia to make some compromises.
Russia, for its part, wants to end the crisis in Ukraine as soon as possible and concentrate on other challenges from Western countries.
As for the G20 summit, it is no longer a simple forum for economic cooperation, but has become a stage for countries to play.
Whether Putin will go to Brazil or not ultimately depends on his own judgment.
But one thing is certain: the G20 summit will not be a place to solve problems, but will only be the fuse for intensifying contradictions.
The chess game is unpredictable, and no one can guess the final outcome.