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Text: Entertainment and entertainment
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The State Council Information Office's fiscal policy briefing today can be described as full of dry goods. The Ministry of Finance threw out several bombshell news in one go, which was simply dazzling. From the adjustment of mortgage interest rates to the resolution of local debts, and then to the new use of special bonds, this is to give the economy a shot in the arm! But can these policies really cure the disease? I don't think it's that simple.
Can the big adjustment of mortgage interest rates really save the property market?
Let's start with the most talked-about mortgage interest rate adjustment. Starting from the 25th, the six major state-owned banks took the lead in adjusting the interest rates of existing housing loans, and other commercial banks also followed suit. This is a rare big move in recent years! But I don't think it might work.
How can young people nowadays afford to buy a house? With wages so low and housing prices so high, what's the use of just adjusting interest rates? Besides, the quality of the current house is not good, and it leaks and falls tiles at every turn. A friend of mine just bought a new house, and after moving in less than half a year, he had all kinds of problems, and he didn't care about finding a developer, so he was so angry that he stomped his feet.
Having said that, mortgage interest rate adjustments can indeed reduce the burden on some home buyers. Take a loan of 1 million yuan and a 30-year term as an example, the monthly payment can be less than seven or eight hundred yuan. For many families, that's a lot of money. But the question is, will this spur more people to buy houses? I look at the hanging. Today's young people are more willing to spend money on eating, drinking and having fun, and who wants to take a mortgage for decades?
There are new ways to resolve local debts, but the symptoms are not cured?
Let's take a look at the local debt problem. The Ministry of Finance said it would increase the debt limit on a larger scale at one time to replace the implicit debt of local governments. This trick sounds quite powerful, but I think it's just a change of soup and not a change of medicine.
Why do local governments owe so much debt? It's not because of the pressure of GDP assessment that we have to engage in infrastructure to drive the economy. Now that the central government is helping to repay debts, will local governments continue to borrow money indiscriminately in the future? If this problem is not solved, the debt problem will never be solved.
I have heard that in some places, in order to pay off debts, civil servants cannot even pay their salaries. A few days ago, there was news on the Internet that a city government owed wages to sanitation workers, which was unimaginable before. Although the official came out to refute the rumors later, this kind of thing is definitely not groundless.
But then again, it's always a good thing that the central government has helped resolve local debts. At the very least, it can alleviate the financial pressure on local governments and reassure the market. I just don't know how big this "larger scale" is, and whether it can really solve the problem has to be a question mark.
Can the new use of special bonds stimulate the economy?
The Ministry of Finance also announced new uses for special bonds, including the acquisition of existing commercial housing and land reserves. This trick is quite new, I have never heard of special bonds being used like this before.
The use of special bonds to acquire the stock of commercial housing can indeed help real estate enterprises to recoup some funds. But the question is, what happens to these houses in the end? If you can't sell a house, the government can't sell it if you buy it. Do you want to turn it all into affordable housing? How much does it cost to maintain and manage?
As for the use of special bonds to engage in land reserves, I think it is a bit interesting. At present, the income from land sales in many places has dropped sharply, and it is only a way to supplement the funds with special bonds. However, the risk of doing so is not small, in case the land price falls, it will be a big loss.
Overall, these new policies do show the government's determination to stimulate the economy. However, the effect depends on the specific implementation. After all, it's easy to talk on paper, but it's hard to actually land.
How does the market react to the frequent big moves in fiscal policy?
As soon as the fiscal policy conference came out, the market reaction was quite positive. The three major A-share indexes collectively opened higher, and the real estate sector rose sharply. It seems that investors are quite optimistic about this wave of policies.
However, I think the market may have overreacted a bit. After all, whether these policies can be effective or not depends on the long-term. Moreover, fiscal policy alone to stimulate the economy is not a long-term solution.
I heard a friend who is engaged in finance say that the introduction of this wave of policies is mainly to stabilize market confidence. It is true that the recent economic data has not been very good, and the market sentiment is a bit sluggish. The government's action at this time can somewhat boost confidence.
But the problem is that faith comes and goes quickly. If the follow-up economic data is still not ideal, then the market sentiment may fall sharply again. Therefore, I think we still have to look at the performance of the real economy to judge whether these policies are effective or not.
Can Fiscal Policy Save the Economy? See
Overall, the fiscal policy conference was indeed full of information and showed the government's determination to stimulate the economy. But it's really hard to say how effective it will be.
After all, the economy is not something that can be solved by just a few policies. Problems such as insufficient demand, aging population, and complex international situation cannot be solved in the short term.
But then again, something is better than nothing. The fact that the government can come up with so many measures at least shows that it is still confident. We ordinary people can only hope that these policies can take effect as soon as possible and make everyone's life better.
By the way, one last word of caution, although these policies sound good, don't be blindly optimistic. Those who should save money still have to save money, and those who should manage money still have to manage money. After all, your own wallet is the most reliable.
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