In the week of October 11, the price of 2411, the main alumina futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose all the way, hitting a record high of 4778 yuan/ton since the launch of the contract in June 2023, and has risen for six consecutive weeks on a weekly basis.
Judging from the cumulative increase since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures of the Shanghai Exchange ranked first among base metals with an increase of 44.84%!
Overseas, when the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, Century Aluminum rose 5.04%, and United States Aluminum also rose 4.51%.
According to institutional analysis, the average profit of alumina in the third quarter of this year was 3,927 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The cost of alumina has basically remained constant, and the sharp increase in prices has brought a significant increase in profits, and alumina enterprises have fully benefited.
Six consecutive weeks of gains //
As of October 12, domestic non-ferrous metal futures closed at night, and the main alumina futures contract 2411 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.06% to close at 4776 yuan / ton. It is worth mentioning that when the contract price closed at 15 o'clock on Friday, the contract price had risen 4.64% to close at 4553 yuan / ton. If you count from the July low, the price of this contract has risen by more than 34%.
On a weekly basis, the contract has achieved six consecutive yangs.
In the latest news, according to media reports, on October 11, U.A.E. Global Aluminium said that the bauxite export of its subsidiary Guinea Alumina Company (GAC) has been suspended by customs, but did not disclose details. Guinea is one of the world's largest suppliers of bauxite, which in turn is the main raw material for alumina. Boosted by this news, on Friday, U.S. stocks, Century Aluminum rose 5.04%, and United States Aluminum also rose 4.51%.
Alumina companies are expected to fully benefit //
As of the close of 1:00 on October 12, domestic non-ferrous metal futures closed up, and alumina futures were even more outstanding. Among them, the main Shanghai copper contract rose 0.96%, the main Shanghai aluminum contract rose 1.06%, the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 1.70%, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose 1.69%, the main Shanghai tin contract rose 1.15%, the main Shanghai lead contract rose 1.83%, the main stainless steel contract rose 1.43%, and the main alumina contract rose 6.06%. Judging from the cumulative increase since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures of the Shanghai Exchange ranked first among base metals with an increase of 44.84%!
In addition, from the perspective of related commodity indexes, both daily and weekly alumina indices are ahead of the Wind commodity index and the Wind nonferrous index.
It is reported that at present, about 95% of the world's alumina production is used for electrolytic aluminum smelting and production, and the amount of other uses is low. From the perspective of the spot market, the current domestic demand for alumina is strong, and the price continues to rise. On October 11, the latest China's average spot price index of alumina was reported at 4,255 yuan/ton, which has broken through the high point of 2021.
From the perspective of spot prices, the research report of Zheshang Securities shows that the average price of alumina in the third quarter of this year was 3929 yuan/ton, up 1035 yuan year-on-year, an increase of 36% year-on-year. Since 2024, the domestic mine security inspection has been suspended, the bauxite has been significantly reduced, the resource value is significant, the alumina inventory has declined rapidly, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has resumed in the second quarter, and the demand side has surged in a short time, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand, and the price of alumina has risen sharply, and the price has continued to stabilize at about 3900 in the third quarter. The average profit of alumina in the third quarter was 3,927 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The cost of alumina has basically remained constant, and the sharp increase in prices has brought a significant increase in profits, and alumina enterprises have fully benefited.
For the future price trend, the research report of China Securities Construction Investment Futures pointed out that the alumina market dynamics shows that overseas alumina prices continue to rise, which supports the domestic market. Although alumina initially has the conditions for export, the possibility of export is low due to the tight domestic spot. Although there are new projects on the domestic supply side that will be put into operation, there is still a certain gap on the supply side considering the demand for winter storage. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang bid for the purchase of spot alumina, and the transaction price was about 4,600 yuan/ton, indicating that the acceptance of high prices by aluminum mills has increased, and the short-term alumina is running strongly. On the demand side, domestic stimulus policies have been strengthened, and consumption in real estate, automobiles, home appliances and other sectors has improved during the National Day holiday, and consumption is expected to remain stable and improve in the fourth quarter.
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