This past week has been a crazy roller coaster ride for many new investors. One moment it feels like it's in heaven, and the next it's like you've fallen into hell. They have witnessed the peak of the bull market, and they have also experienced the tragic scene of the bear market.
A week ago, new investors were still struggling with the fact that they couldn't buy their shares. At that time, watching the stock market rise all the way, I was in a hurry, and I was looking forward to rushing into the market to grab money. But who would have thought that just a week later, they began to think about canceling their accounts. This change is faster than turning a book.
In fact, this is the real A-share market. The hardships that the old shareholders have endured, the road they have walked, and the psychological process they have experienced, the new shareholders still have to go through it again after all. The sound of what used to be shouted about the bull market has now almost disappeared without a trace. The new shareholders have calmed down, and the old shareholders are about to close themselves. The mood of the whole market seems to have fallen from the clouds to the bottom, and the huge gap makes everyone have to start accepting reality.
As for the brokerage, the account opening is finally not busy, and the days of working overtime are gone. There are even people on the Internet who are shouting to queue up en masse to cancel their accounts, as if all this is just a quick dream.
Let's review this wave of fast bull outbreak. On September 26th, I posted a recap. At that time, the speed was already beyond expectations.
At that time, Goldman Sachs only said that it would invest tactically in Chinese stocks, and everyone's expectation was only to return to 3,000 points. The broader market closed the day at exactly 3000 points. At that time, there were not many people looking at 3200 points, and I started counting from 2689 points, and the range above 800 points was only above 3500 points.
But then, the mood of the market completely changed and began to get out of control. After the National Day, the stock market was like a wild horse that broke free, rushing to a thousand-point increase in one go, and the broad market index went directly above 3,600 points. This rally is really too fierce. However, the market soon cooled down.
For me personally, this wave of fast bulls did rise too fast, exceeding my initial expectations. Of course, for those who are bent on breaking through the six and ten thousand points, they are certainly the most disappointed.
However, even now that the market is pulling back, I am not so pessimistic. Since the emotions exceeded expectations, the emotions must be calmed down in the end. The market still has to go step by step, and if there is no fast bull mad cow, then accept the slow cow.
In the stock market, no one can be completely full, and no one can completely stay short. The most important thing is that you can't be controlled by external emotions. If it rises, it magnifies the joy, and when it falls, it amplifies the panic, and I have seen this situation too much.
At 2700 points, many people ask why go long? He also said that it was about to hit a new low, so hurry up and cut the meat. But when it reached 3600 points, many people rushed in with leverage. This is the characteristic of human nature.
But we must have our own judgment. Learn to stick to it when it is low, and don't be in a hurry if it rises and falls. If you are holding a speculative mentality and want to make a fortune in the stock market, there is a high probability that you will lose all of it in the end. If you really want to survive in the stock market, at least you won't be completely out of the cracks in the early stage. Even if you increase your position later, it will not be full of high positions.
Next, let's talk about some views on the market. Especially after the baptism of the market this week, will it usher in a rebound next week?
1. Forget the past, plan to go back and wait patiently for opportunities
If you're still in the stock market, I've got to tell you, learn to forget the past. No matter how crazy the market was before, it was already in the past. It doesn't matter if your costs are high or low, you can't change the past, you can only look to the future.
So what does the future hold? Some people say that it will be the continuation of the A-word killing and falling, and it will hit a new low; Some people also say that the pullback will continue to skyrocket, and the big bull market will continue.
These are all emotions that correspond to different positions and perspectives. Now those who are short and out of the market naturally want to see a big fall; And for those who hold positions and chase high, they hope that the big bull market will continue to skyrocket.
But don't ignore one factor, the reason why this round of bull market rose so fast is because of the favorable policies that followed, and the emotions exploded in a short period of time. The reason why it was suddenly stopped was also because of excessive emotions and all kinds of leveraged funds flowed into the market in violation of regulations.
This shows that the above wants the market to go well and wants funds to enter the market, but they don't want to let funds enter the market casually. So, now it is not in accordance with the law to look at the plunge and the spike.
Now it is basically clear to say: first, the broad market index will basically not return to 2600 points; Second, the stock market will eventually rise, and efforts to boost the confidence of the capital market will not be just this wave.
The pessimism at present mainly comes from the fact that short-term expectations are too high. But it is precisely because the expectations are too high that it will cause the bull market to rise too fast after it comes. In fact, this round of gains is not very high.
Therefore, the stock market will definitely rise back in the future, but it will be in a different way, and there will be a rhythm and rational rise, and there can be no irrational rapid rise. Everyone should be patient and wait for the next wave of opportunities after the adjustment.
2. Global capital is focusing on tomorrow, will it become the salvation of A-shares? The market looks at it this way next week
Some people may ask why the stock market should not be allowed to continue to rise because it is beneficial in many ways. It's a good idea, and it's true that the stock market has risen in more good ways than harm. But what if the stock market goes wild? Then there may be a situation where the harm outweighs the good. When the time comes, selling houses and cars and increasing leverage to speculate in stocks, under the herd effect, the stock market bubble will continue to expand, and eventually a large number of people will be injured and leave the market.
Human greed is uncontrollable. The reason why we want the stock market to rise is based on a normal and controllable state of growth. But when greed and profit are combined, the stock market is prone to problems.
So, I still firmly believe that the above will definitely improve the current situation of the stock market. Some policies may fall short of expectations, and some may be overforced, but after the final correction, the market will improve.
At noon today, the Beijing Stock Exchange issued a strict crackdown on illegal reductions. This shows that the recent frenzied concentration of holdings has attracted the attention of regulators. In the next step, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may also have to speak out on the reduction of holdings.
For tomorrow's market, although the stock market is closed, there is one thing that will be the focus of global capital. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Saturday (tomorrow), and the incremental policy of the Ministry of Finance may be about to land.
This press conference has attracted a lot of attention, but the trend of the market in the past few days, does it mean that everyone's expectations for the policy are not so high? It is not possible to draw conclusions so early. Before the press conference of the State Council Information Office on September 24, the market was also quiet, and as a result, the policy began to be released beyond expectations.
At least tomorrow's result won't disappoint you too much. There are a lot of tools in the toolbox now, but they may not be released all at once.
In short, in the stock market, we need to stay calm and not be swayed by emotions. You should have your own judgment and analysis, and plan your investment reasonably. At the same time, we should also pay attention to changes in policies and economic fundamentals, and adjust our investment strategies in a timely manner. I believe that with the joint efforts of everyone, the A-share market will get better and better.