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After Yoon's visit to the Philippines, the sea near Scarborough Shoal was choppy again. Just days after the diplomatic visit, Philippine official ships again intruded into waters off Scarborough Shoal, only to be forcefully expelled by the Chinese coast guard, escalating tensions again.
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And, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's name has reappeared in the headlines when he announced his candidacy for mayor of Davao City. Behind this series of incidents is not only the sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea, but also the complex domestic political game of the Philippines and the interweaving of international forces.
The South China Sea issue has a long history, but the timing of this incident is particularly intriguing. Korea President Yoon Seok-yue has just concluded a visit to the Philippines, and the two sides have reached a number of cooperation agreements, especially in the areas of defense, infrastructure and maritime cooperation. Korea pledged $2 billion in infrastructure funding for the Philippines and sent troops to conduct joint exercises with the Philippine military.
For Marcos Jr., Yoon's visit has brought him huge political capital and given him more support both domestically and internationally. The arrival of this foreign aid has undoubtedly strengthened the Philippines' confidence in confronting China on the South China Sea issue.
Shortly after Yoon left the Philippines, on October 8, Philippine official ships 3001 and 3002 entered the waters near Scarborough Shoal without authorization in an attempt to resupply Philippine fishing boats. This kind of behavior has been common in recent years, and the Philippine government has repeatedly used this method to provoke China in an attempt to create an image of a "victim" in the international community.
The video released by the Philippines also once again shows the Chinese coast guard ship using water cannons to warn. The scene in the video may seem intense, but in reality, the Chinese coast guard has exercised restraint in its actions, and the warning water cannons have not directly hit the Philippine boat, only to warn it to leave quickly.
However, the Philippine media did not miss this opportunity, and they quickly seized on the video to hype up China's claim that "the big bullies the small" in an attempt to win international sympathy. In fact, the presence of two Philippine official vessels near Scarborough Shoal is very small compared to the Chinese coast guard.
China has dispatched not only a number of coast guard vessels, but also a navy warship to patrol the nearby waters, an overwhelming force that makes the Philippine provocation look more like a symbolic resistance.
The Philippine government's handling of the incident also shows its different strategies internally and externally. Internationally, they have used the media to hype China's "hardline behavior" in the hope of attracting more international support. Domestically, they presented the operation as a "successful resupply mission" victory in an attempt to maintain popular support for Marcos Jr.'s government. This method of spiritual victory has been tried and tested in the Philippines many times, but it is difficult to hide their inability to act in practice.
But now the political situation in the Philippines has become more complicated, with Duterte, the former president who had maintained friendly relations with China during his presidency, suddenly announced his candidacy for mayor of Davao City. For many Filipinos, Duterte's return is undoubtedly a major political event. Although he has been semi-retired since stepping down as president two years ago, this time he has once again stepped into the forefront, showing his unwillingness to exit the Philippine political scene altogether.
Duterte's return hides his delicate relationship with incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. When Marcos Jr. was running for president, he reached a certain agreement with the Duterte family, which was one of the important reasons for Marcos Jr.'s election. Duterte's daughter, Sarah · Duterte, currently serves as vice president of the Philippines, and it was widely believed that Sarah would run for president in 2028, and Marcos Jr.'s support was a key factor in that.
However, as time went on, the relationship between the two families seemed to be deteriorating, with Sarah resigning as education minister and Arroyo, an ally of the Duterte family, being demoted by the Marcos Jr. government, suggesting that the Marcos Jr. family is gradually weakening the Duterte family's influence.
Marcos Jr. seems to be still working on his family's power, especially since he has been appointed as his deputy. The arrangement raises suspicions that Marcos Jr. is preparing for a future political succession and is trying to groom his son to become the next leading figure in Philippine politics. Duterte is clearly unwilling to sit idly by in the face of this situation, and his reappearance is likely to solidify his family's power in Davao City and prepare for future political games.
Because Davao City is the old home of the Duterte family, Duterte served as mayor for 25 years. Located on the island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines, the city is a very important part of the Philippine political map.
The Duterte family has deep roots here, and even though Marcos Jr. has broad support across the country, Davao City remains an unshakable political fortress for the Duterte family. Therefore, Duterte's choice to run for mayor of Davao City this time is obviously to hold his power in the southern Philippines and accumulate strength for the future political confrontation with Marcos Jr.
Yoon Suk-yeol's visit a few days ago and the Philippines' provocative behavior in the South China Sea seem to have sparked a new game at the international level. Korea has pledged to strengthen maritime cooperation with the Philippines and signed a memorandum of cooperation with the coast guard, a move reminiscent of United States' Asia-Pacific strategy.
In recent years, United States has been trying to woo countries in the Asia-Pacific region to jointly deal with China's rise. Korea as an important ally of United States, Yoon Suk-yeol's visit to the Philippines may also be paving the way for United States's strategy. United States' position on the South China Sea issue has always been to support the Philippines, and this provocation by the Philippines is likely to test China's bottom line after receiving the support of United States and Korea.
In the face of frequent provocations by the Philippines, China has always maintained a clear stance. China has indisputable sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and its adjacent waters, and the CCG's actions have been highly restrained in this incident.
This restraint is not only to avoid further escalation of the situation, but also to maintain a rational and legitimate image in international public opinion. Although the Philippines has tried to hype up China's "toughness" in the international community, the actual situation shows that while China is safeguarding its national sovereignty, it is also trying its best to avoid the escalation of the conflict.
The situation in the South China Sea is becoming more and more complicated by the intervention of various forces, and Marcos Jr. is trying to use foreign aid to confront China on the South China Sea issue. Duterte's return to politics may be a turning point in the Philippine political landscape.
The relationship between China and the Philippines will also face more challenges and tests in this complex political and diplomatic game. In any case, the sound of the waves at Scarborough Shoal is far from subsiding, and the wind and waves in the South China Sea are still surging in the undercurrent.
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"Two Philippine ships insist on invading the waters near China's Scarborough Shoal, and the Chinese coast guard responds"——Observer.com2024-10-08 17:57
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