Don't regret not getting on the car in this round of market, at this time it is not necessarily the knife that falls, and the rising market does not necessarily imply the national fortune. Maybe in the near future, you will secretly rejoice: fortunately, you suppressed the urge to enter the market, otherwise you would have become a green leek again. Because there is a market like love in a TV series, it is best to enjoy it through the screen, and a plot like real life can't survive an episode.
There is no country in the world, and no economic theory can prove that the wealth effect of pulling the stock market can effectively solve the problems of deflation and insufficient effective demand. In essence, the core of the deflation problem is employment, the ability to grow national income, the marginal improvement ability of disposable income, the ability to transform and upgrade the economic structure, the realistic measurement of the success of the transformation from a production-oriented society to a consumption-oriented society, and the true manifestation of people's living standards and happiness index. These are all major tests of structural reform and long-term economic growth models and capabilities, and most of them are also capacity shortcomings and reform problems that governments do not easily touch. These structural slow variables in economic development happen to be the questions and answers to high-quality economic development, and they are also the high-level answers to the reform into the deep-water area and the urgent, difficult, and dangerous development environment.
The contents of structural reform are mostly related to the fiscal and taxation system, which belongs to the category of in-depth reform and redistribution of interests, which is the key to the reform of the entire income distribution system and the difficulty of the reform of comprehensive social management. The solution of these hot and difficult problems must not simply rely on the so-called "invigorating the stock market" and initiating a bull market for reform. The bull and bear in the capital market is the result of economic development, not the goal of our reform and development. Any credible economic development results and social progress goals are derived from development, not planning and design, and the invisible hand has always been self-equilibrium, although from time to time the market has to pay the price.
Today, we are at the moment of paying the price for the rapid economic development of the past three decades. The prosperity of the "zero-sum game" game in the financial market and capital market can solve the problem of confidence in short-term development, and to some extent, it can also improve expectations and even activate the main body. Enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and even increase the purchasing power of residents by optimizing the allocation of resources. However, in the long run, China needs to be patient and firm in developing the real economy, and the capital market must also be transformed to serve the development of the real economy.
We don't need Wall Street-style finance, the kind of finance that has profoundly deepened and liberalized and changed China, and we have paid enough price. P2P, trust, structured financial management, over-the-counter allocation, quantitative trading, and dazzling financial innovations, there are many joys and sorrows of families and joys and sorrows of life. It is time for finance to return to the essence of the service industry, so that finance can truly serve industry, people's livelihood, social fairness and justice, and common prosperity and high-quality development. We must no longer follow the old path of false prosperity and irrational prosperity, and rely on the so-called prosperity of the financial and capital markets to solve temporary difficulties, which can only be regarded as a kind of policy self-liberation and self-paralysis. China's stock market bull short bear long, rapid rise and fall of the historical stubborn disease, but also greatly reflects the capital market participants confidence, patience and economic development results of the background, in a sense, the past dual economic development model of the water big fish big fish big low-quality growth state, doomed to never have any "national bull market".
If the stock market cannot act as a barometer of the economy, cannot reflect the fundamentals of the economy, cannot discover value, and cannot effectively allocate market resources, then what is the value and significance of its existence? Is it just for everyone to do simple zero-sum trading here? If China's stock market has nothing to do with fundamentals and only with policy, then it is reasonable to explain the huge speculation and gambling contained in it, and it is also reasonable to explain the market characteristics of short bulls and long bears, sharp rises and falls.
In the long run, stock market gains and losses should not be the focus of macroeconomic policy at present. As a long-term bullish on China, as a large number of enterprise development chips of the people, we hope that this is a real reform slow cow and development long bull. Otherwise, the plunge after the fast bull mad bull market will definitely cause huge pressure on the retail market, and may form another big loot of the national wealth accumulated by the only reform and opening up, and may form a long-term inhibition of the repair ability and consumption capacity of residents' balance sheets in the future, which will affect the healthy and stable development of China's economy and society for a long time.
At present, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system is the top priority, the fiscal and taxation system to support economic growth and the improvement of people's livelihood is the most important, the fiscal and taxation support for high-quality economic development must not be absent in this round of reform, and the repair of the balance sheets of the government, enterprises and residents is the top priority. This kind of deflationary governance and balance sheet repair is a typical work of slow work and meticulous work, just like a mountain of illness and a thread of illness. If we want to cure the disease of deflation, we must start with fiscal and taxation reforms, truly increase national income, conscientiously implement the plan to double national income, issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on a long-term basis and on a large scale to directly supplement people's livelihood, and subsidize employment, education, medical care, vocational training, old-age care, and entrepreneurship, especially childbirth.
At the same time, the resolute implementation of tax cuts and concessions, the complete transformation of government functions, the government's withdrawal from fully participating in social and economic life and competing for benefits with the people, and the transformation of functions to provide social and public goods and services in an all-round way, such repair and functional transformation must be based on the DCF cash flow discount model. Strictly speaking, consumption is a function of income, income is a function of employment, and employment is actually a function of the market economy. Without employment growth and income improvement on the basis of industrial development, and without the successful transformation of a consumer-oriented society, it is impossible to hope that the wealth growth effect of the capital market will promote high-quality economic development and social progress. Based on the zero-sum game of the wealth effect model, there is a natural trend of rapid rise and fall, in essence, GDP growth and real national wealth growth has nothing to do with the growth of national wealth, will only exacerbate the polarization of wealth in the short term, accelerate the differentiation of the Gini coefficient, from this point of view, we need a scientific and stable, gradual development of the capital market, rather than a rainstorm capital market movement.
In the past 20 years, we have chosen the wrong real estate industry to place national wealth and adapted to the wrong fiscal and taxation system and the central and local financial power system, and the devastating consequences of the real estate downturn have been delayed to this day and are far from over. Today, we cannot step into the same river for the second time, and then mistakenly choose the stock market, the virtual economy, and the zero-sum game market as a breakthrough to revitalize the economy and stimulate domestic demand. At most, this can only manage expectations, boost confidence, declare the determination of development, and prove the important position of the capital market.
I hope you don't choose the wrong development model this time. We are eagerly looking forward to reform, especially resolutely supporting the fiscal and taxation departments to vigorously support the repair of the balance sheets of enterprises and residents, and the central government will do its best to make up for the output gap caused by the lack of private investment and final consumption, and make up for the liquidity trap in the context of high savings rates and precautionary savings, so as to make every effort of the central government to fight deflation. We should support economic and social development, and conscientiously devote financial resources to the private sector with the highest efficiency, especially the implementation of vigorous direct subsidies for low- and middle-income groups, effectively reduce the leverage and burden of the residential sector and households, earnestly increase their consumption tendency, conscientiously improve the per capita disposable income of the people, and loosen the ties with the economy, the people's livelihood, and the society. While the capital market is active, more attention should be paid to the activity and openness of the ideological market and the release of long-term institutional dividends, but we must not simplify complex issues, mythologize financial and monetary policies and quantitative tools, do not short-term long-term problems, and still less politicize and campaign economic development.
Almost all people know in their hearts how far the stock market can go without the support of fundamentals, how many days can a company with abundant cash flow open, and how long can it last without the development of the market economy and the sustainable development of the rule of law.
Haruki Murakami once said: Where there are people who like to be lonely, but they don't like to be disappointed. I would like to say, let's not forget what we set out for. Many things don't last long, and many people just leave the scene.