原文标题：CPI Growth Is Set to Slow Even More
原文作者：Scott Garliss
Original source: https://www.coindesk.com/
编译：火星财经，Daisy
CPI growth is expected to slow further
This is good news for risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Scott ·Garliss said.
Inflation growth is rapidly approaching the Fed's 2% target.
One of my favorite parts of every morning is drinking coffee. After my espresso machine is preheated, I'm looking forward to making two lattes, each with one espresso. It's become such a part of my daily routine that I often feel like I can't start my day without it.
Before COVID, my daily routine was a little different. At that time, I was still looking forward to the coffee every day, but I didn't make it myself, but I liked to go out and buy coffee. I'd come to the office, finish my morning's work, and run out to meet my favorite barista and enjoy a hot cup of coffee.
When I first returned to the office, everything changed. You see, before the pandemic, I was spending about $10 a day, or $5 a cup. But when I first got my coffee, I noticed that the price had gone up to $7.50. While the previous $5 per glass didn't bother me because the price had been maintained for many years, this time the price increase made me very concerned.
Soon, I started to reduce the number of times I went out to buy coffee and just drank one cup. It didn't take long for me to drink only a few drinks a week. A 50% price increase per cup is like a punch in the face of all the money you save by making your own coffee. I don't feel the need to do that anymore.
Lately, I've been pressed for time and can't make my own coffee. So, I stopped and bought a latte. When I paid for it, I found that the price was still the same. I'm sure many people, like me, are going through a similar situation. After the pandemic, when the prices of various commodities soared, you are also reluctant to waste your hard-earned money on buying them.
Later this week, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its inflation growth indicator for September. When this data is released, it will show that price pressures have reached their lowest level since February 2021. This change will support further rate cuts by our central bank, providing support for a steady rally in risk assets such as Bitcoin.
But don't just take my word for it, let's take a look at what the data tells us.
Each month, the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia ask manufacturers in their jurisdictions about the status of their activities. The questionnaire asked the companies about new orders, delivery times, employment and production, among other things. It also asks if costs are going up, down, or staying the same.
But we must pay attention to the "price of goods". This number indicates the price paid by the customer for the manufacturer's finished product. This is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Therefore, the price direction received is an indicator of whether inflation is rising or falling.
The states where the four banks are headquartered now — Texas, Missouri, New York and Pennsylvania — now account for about 25 percent of United States' domestic economic output. So, we can have a pretty good idea of the national demand. And these results are released before the CPI, so it's like knowing the data in advance.
And the latest readings indicate that the price received has decreased......
In the chart above, I combined the readings of the four central banks into a composite indicator. This indicator is called the Composite Price Acceptance Index (CPRI) and is represented by a blue line. I compared it to the Consumer Price Index (CPI, orange line). As you can see, CPRI tends to be a leading indicator. It peaked in October 2021. However, it wasn't until June 2022 that the CPI finally reached its highest point in more than 40 years before starting to fall back.
As you can notice in the chart above, my index maintained a steady trend in 2019 and early 2020. Inflation growth has followed, which has remained below 2%. But when companies sent their employees home in the early days of the pandemic, the CPRI indicator fell. With the reopening of the economy, the indicator began to rise again. In each case, we can see that the CPI behaves similarly, but with a lag.
Now, the CPRI trend seems to be stabilizing. You can see this by looking at the right side of the image above. This change comes as we see consumers' excess COVID savings gradually disappear and consumption slows. This means that individuals are becoming more price sensitive and are more likely to retain their own funds.
In December 2023, the indicator read 8.4. Last month's reading was 8.8. In fact, so far this year, the index has remained between 5 and 10. This is important because the longer it remains stable, the more likely it is that inflation growth will slow down. Because the annualized reading will lower the earlier higher number, it will help to return the CPI to the target of below 2%.
Over the past three months, inflation has increased at a rate of 0.1% per month. If this pace continues, we could see annualized growth fall to 1.5% by March 2025.
As you can see, the regional central bank's economic team expects headline CPI to fall to 2.3% in September from 2.5% in August. This would be the lowest reading since March 2021, when inflation data began to rise sharply.
As I said at the beginning, price growth is slowing. Manufacturers are telling us that they are increasingly having a hard time passing on the pressure of price increases to consumers. And, if my model is correct, we will soon see inflation growth back to 2%.
So don't be surprised when the report later this week confirms what my metrics indicate. The easing of price pressures should boost the Fed's confidence in the slowdown in inflationary growth. This will provide room for central banks to lower interest rates further. This change will contribute to the long-term steady rise of dollar-denominated risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.