Follow me and take you to unlock the wealth code and turn on the good luck buff! Like and follow, let your fortune soar all the way, and good luck can't stop it!
Putin's chance to turn the tables came, Japan suddenly wanted peace talks, and the probability of United States getting involved in the war exceeded 60%
Putin's last chance? Whether the flames of war can be extinguished
The recent series of drastic changes in events have given Putin a last chance to turn the tide. Japan suddenly offered peace talks with Russia in an attempt to ease tensions between the two sides; At the same time, the geopolitical game in the Middle East is intensifying, and United States may not be spared from being involved. These changes provide an opportunity for Putin to regain his footing, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to seize the opportunity to regain control of the situation.
1. The dawn of peace talks between Japan and Russia
In a speech to the Diet, Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that he would maintain sanctions against Russia and a policy of support for Ukraine, but at the same time hoped to conclude a peace treaty with Russia to resolve the long-pending territorial issue. This statement has aroused widespread attention from the outside world.
What is the logic behind Shigeru's move? First of all, from the perspective of Japan's own interests, the Japan-Russia peace talks are conducive to easing tensions between the two sides, avoiding the risk of war, and safeguarding Japan's peaceful development. As we all know, United States has always hoped that Japan will take advantage of Russia's war in Ukraine to recapture the "four northern islands". But Japan is clearly not interested in this, and is unwilling to stir up trouble for United States' strategic goals, because this could escalate into a military conflict and put Japan in unnecessary trouble. On the contrary, Japan prefers to reach a rapprochement with Russia and repair bilateral relations.
Second, from a geopolitical point of view, the Japan-Russia peace talks will also help balance the US-Russia conflict and reduce United States' strategic pressure on the world. Russia has long relied on China as an important pillar, but now China is also reluctant to continue to fully support Russia. If Japan can ease its relations with Russia, it may be able to distract Russia from relying entirely on China. This is undoubtedly a negative factor for United States.
Japan's intention in proposing peace talks is not simply to reclaim the "four northern islands," but more out of consideration of its own interests and geopolitical rivalries. For Putin, this undoubtedly opens a window for him to regain control of the situation.
Second, the United States cannot escape the vortex of the Middle East
Another important change is that United States is likely to be drawn into a new round of war in the Middle East. Recently, Iran fired missiles at Israel, triggering a strong reaction from Israel. Analysts point out that this could lead to military action by Israel against Iran, and as an ally of Israel, it will be difficult for United States to stay out of it.
From United States point of view, this is undoubtedly a dilemma. On the one hand, the United States government hopes to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past when it was involved in long-term military conflicts in the Middle East. Since taking office, the Biden administration has been trying to promote diplomatic negotiations and try to solve the problems of the Middle East through diplomatic means. But on the other hand, it is difficult for United States to completely abandon Israel, an important Middle East ally. If Israel preemptively attacks Iran, the United States will likely have to choose to support Israel, which will undoubtedly draw it into the vortex of war.
To that end, the United States is making every effort to dissuade Israel from unilateral action. But Israel apparently didn't buy it, and instead wanted United States support. This state of contradiction makes it possible for United States to face major challenges to its established strategy in the Middle East. If it is eventually forced into the war, it will not only disrupt its plans to support Ukraine in Europe, but may also weaken its strategy to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region.
For Putin, this is undoubtedly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Once United States is embroiled in a war in the Middle East, its support in Ukraine will certainly wane, which can allow Russia to focus on getting out of the current predicament. At the same time, United States may not be able to maintain a sustained focus on the Asia-Pacific region, which also means that Russia's strategic space in the region may expand.
3. Can Putin turn things around?
Looking at the current situation, Putin is indeed facing an important turning point. On the one hand, Japan's posture of peace talks has created an opportunity for him to ease relations with the West; On the other hand, the possibility of United States being drawn into a new war in the Middle East also provides an opportunity for him to distract the Western camp.
But the question is, can Putin seize this opportunity and reverse the current unfavorable situation? It depends on whether he can grasp the underlying logic of these changes and formulate a new strategic layout accordingly.
First, Putin needs to carefully assess Japan's real motives for proposing peace talks and formulate a corresponding negotiation strategy accordingly. As mentioned earlier, Japan's aim is not purely for the sake of territorial issues, but to try to ease relations with Russia and safeguard its own interests. Therefore, Putin needs to use this opportunity wisely to repair bilateral relations through negotiation rather than force, and not fall into the trap of armed confrontation again.
Second, Putin also needs to pay close attention to United States' movements in the Middle East and make corresponding strategic adjustments accordingly. If United States is really forced to get involved in a new Middle East war, then Putin should seize this opportunity and focus on solving the Ukraine problem with all his might, striving for a decisive victory there. At the same time, he can also use this opportunity to further strengthen strategic cooperation with China in the Asia-Pacific region to balance United States' influence in the region.
Of course, all this requires Putin to be able to accurately grasp the current rapidly changing situation and make the right strategic choices. After all, for a country that is at a disadvantage, this is probably his last chance. If another opportunity is missed, it is likely that Putin will not be able to completely reverse the current unfavorable situation.
In short, the current situation offers Putin an opportunity to turn things around, but the key is whether he can seize the opportunity. The future will deserve close attention.
The original intention of this article is to spread positive energy, and there is no intention to infringe on the rights and interests of others. If there is any infringement, please contact us and we will actively cooperate with the handling.