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Text: Little Fish
Editor|Little Fish
——【· Preface ·】——》
In recent years, China's birth population has fallen sharply, and the 9 million figure has worried many. And if the status quo continues, this number may be "cut" even lower in the next five years.
The high cost of parenting, social pressure, and changing attitudes are all intertwined, and the desire to have children has repeatedly shrunk. What is it that is making young people shy away from having children?
Is this trend a harbinger of more far-reaching societal change? If it doesn't change, what will be the impact of such a decline?
When the demographic dividend is gradually drifting away
Population has always played a pivotal role in China's social development. However, in recent years, this huge population base, which was once seen as an advantage, is quietly becoming a heavy topic. In 2016, the introduction of a universal two-child policy was supposed to bring new hope, but it failed to reverse the decline in population growth.
In 2022, the number of births in China fell below the 10 million mark for the first time, reaching a record low of only 9.48 million. This figure is like a wake-up call, waking up all walks of life immersed in the fantasy of demographic dividend.
As time went on, the situation became more dire. In 2023, fertility intentions will further decline, and experts even predict that the number of births may be halved again in the next five years.
This projection undoubtedly exacerbates the already fragile demographic situation. Against this backdrop, we can't help but ask: what caused such a drastic change? Is it simply a policy failure, or is it a deeper social problem?
Young people under economic burdens
When discussing the demographic crisis, we cannot ignore the most critical group – young people. As the backbone of society, their fertility intentions directly affect the direction of the population structure. However, in the current social environment, young people are facing unprecedented pressures.
High housing prices have become the biggest obstacle for many young people to settle down and start a business. In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the price of an ordinary house often requires a family's income of 10 years or more to afford. This not only squeezes the living space of young people, but also greatly delays their plans to start a family.
In addition to housing, spending on education is also a major problem. Every stage of education, from kindergarten to university, requires a significant investment. Additional expenses such as early education training classes, interest and specialty training classes, and extracurricular tutoring are even more stressful for many families.
In this case, raising one child is already stretching many families, let alone a second or third child. Work pressure should not be ignored either. In the fierce competition in the workplace, young people have to devote more time and energy to keep their jobs or seek promotions.
This inevitably leads to a work-life imbalance, making it difficult for many people to balance their careers and families. Faced with these realities, many young people choose to postpone marriage and childbearing, or even give up the idea of starting a family. This choice, while understandable at the individual level, undoubtedly exacerbates the severity of the demographic crisis in the long run.
Women's dilemmas and choices
In the discussion of the demographic crisis, the role of women is particularly crucial. With universal access to education and social progress, an increasing number of women are able to pursue higher education and occupy important positions in the workplace.
However, this progress also brings new challenges. The contradiction between career development and childbearing has become a dilemma faced by many women. Pregnancy, childbirth, and raising children often interrupt women's career development, causing them to lag behind men of the same age in the workplace.
Even if some women choose to return to work as soon as possible, they often face the dilemma of balancing work and family. Changes in social attitudes are also influencing women's reproductive decisions. The traditional family model of "male dominant, female dominant" is being broken, and more and more women are pursuing the realization of self-worth, rather than just being satisfied with being a full-time housewife.
Although this change in concept reflects the progress of society, it also reduces the overall fertility intention to a certain extent. In addition, discrimination in the workplace remains a problem that cannot be ignored.
Although the law explicitly prohibits gender discrimination in employment, in practice, many women still face discrimination because of marriage and childbirth. This implicit discrimination further exacerbates the conflict between family and career for women.
New challenges for an aging society
As the birth rate continues to decline, the problem of population aging is becoming increasingly prominent. The rising proportion of the elderly population has not only brought tremendous pressure to the social security system, but also profoundly affected the economic structure and social development.
The issue of pension has become one of the most pressing social issues. The traditional family pension model has gradually collapsed under the trend of urbanization and small families, and the demand for socialized pension has increased sharply. However, the current elderly care facilities and services are still far from meeting the growing demand, and there is a large gap in both quantity and quality.
At the same time, the labor market is facing serious challenges. With the decline of the working-age population, some industries have begun to experience labor shortages. This not only affects the continued growth of the economy, but also increases the work pressure of the younger generation.
Ageing is also putting enormous pressure on health care systems. The needs of the elderly for medical services are more frequent and complex, which requires us to continuously improve the medical security system and improve the quality and accessibility of medical services.
In the face of these challenges, how to protect the rights and interests of the elderly while creating a better development environment for the younger generation has become a problem that needs to be considered and solved by the whole society.
The game between policy and reality
In the face of the increasingly severe demographic situation, the government is constantly adjusting its policies to meet the challenges. From the full second child to the encouragement of three children, from the extension of maternity leave to the provision of various subsidies, a series of policy measures have been introduced one after another. However, the effects of these policies do not seem to have been as expected.
The dilemma for policymakers is that fertility policy alone is no longer enough to solve the underlying problem. The decrease in fertility intention is not only caused by economic factors, but also by changes in social attitudes and lifestyles. As a result, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the situation simply by lifting birth restrictions or providing economic incentives.
Another challenge is the effectiveness of policy implementation. Although many policies to support childbirth have been enacted at the central level, they are often undermined in the process of local implementation. For example, some employers may discriminate against pregnant women for fear of increased costs, which weakens the practical effect of the policy.
In addition, regional differences need to be taken into account in policymaking. China is a vast country, and there are great differences in the level of economic development, cultural traditions, and demographic structure of different regions. As a result, it may be difficult for a unified national policy to adapt to local realities, and more flexible and targeted measures are needed.
In this context, policymakers need to take a more holistic and long-term view. We should not only pay attention to direct birth support policies, but also start from education, employment, housing, medical care and other aspects to create a social environment conducive to family development. Only in this way can we truly increase people's willingness to have children and alleviate the demographic crisis.
——[· Conclusion ·] ——"
Despite the challenges posed by the demographic crisis, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Through the joint efforts of governments, businesses and individuals, it is possible to find a path to sustainable development.
The key lies in the fact that we need to change our mindset from simply pursuing population growth to attaching importance to the optimization of population quality and structure. At the same time, we need more innovative thinking to use scientific and technological progress and social governance innovation to meet the challenges brought about by demographic change.
Only in this way can we create a more prosperous and dynamic society in the new era when the demographic dividend is fading.
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