Hot Spotlight //
1. Hong Kong stocks continued to weaken at the beginning of Thursday's session, with the Hang Seng Index falling about 4.5% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling about 7.5% at one point, and then rebounding to recover most of the losses, and the Hang Seng Index ended its six-day upward momentum. The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.47% at 22,113.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.46%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.58%. The domestic real estate, pharmaceutical, and industrial sectors were among the top decliners. Most of the technology stocks fell, with Oriental Selection falling more than 12% and Ali Health falling more than 11%.
2. Hong Kong's new Policy Address will be released on October 16. DAB issued a proposal to enhance Hong Kong's status as a centre for IPO listings and fundraising, which puts forward six major proposals, including lowering the financial requirements for listing, lowering the stamp duty on shares, setting a two-way target for approval responses, introducing a "test the water communication" mechanism, subscribing for high-quality IPOs by HKIC's funds, and exploring ways to enhance the regulatory framework and guidelines. The objective of the measures is to improve Hong Kong's listing and financing regime and attract more enterprises to choose to list in Hong Kong, so as to maintain Hong Kong's status as an international fundraising hub and an international financial centre.
3. In October, brokerage gold stocks were released one after another. Up to now, 25 brokerages have announced the list of golden stocks, with a total of 206 recommendations, involving a total of 159 A-shares, including 123 on the main board, 22 on the Growth Enterprise Market and 14 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Midea Group, CATL, and Zijin Mining are the most popular, and have been recommended by brokerages 6 times, 6 times, and 4 times respectively.
4. Japanese stock funds continued to buy Chinese assets, and the A-share CSI 500 Index ETF listed on the Japan Exchange closed up 62.5% at 10,400 yen on Thursday. The ETF rose 77.8% the previous day.
Global Markets //
1. The three major United States stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.44% at 42011.59, the S&P 500 down 0.17% at 5699.94, and the Nasdaq down 0.04% at 17918.48. Merck and Boeing fell more than 1%, leading the Dow Jones. The Wind United States TAMAMA Technology Index rose 0.3%, Nvidia rose more than 3%, and Tesla fell more than 3%. Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with Youdao falling about 13% and Bilibili falling more than 8%.
2. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board, with Germany's DAX index down 0.78% at 19,015.41 points, France's CAC 40 index down 1.32% at 7,477.78 points, and United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index down 0.1% at 8,282.52 points.
3. Major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed generally higher, with the Nikkei 225 Index closing up 1.97% at 38,552.06 points, and in terms of heavyweights, Tokio Marine Holdings rose 5.34%, Daisan rose 4.09%, Fast Retailing rose 3.66%, Tokyo Electron rose 2.71%, and SoftBank Group rose 2.41%. Australia's S&P 200 index closed up 0.09% at 8,205.2 points. New Zealand's NZX50 index closed up 0.97% at 12,572.66. The Korea stock market is closed for a holiday. Taiwan's stock market will resume trading on Friday after a two-day break.
4. International oil prices rose across the board, with the November contract for U.S. oil rising 5.15% to $73.71 per barrel. Brent oil December contract rose 5.39% to $77.88 a barrel.
5. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.23% at $2675.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed up 1.17% at $32.295 per ounce.
6. London base metals closed down across the board, LME copper fell 1.89% to $9893.5 / ton, LME zinc fell 1.8% to $3116.5 / ton, LME nickel fell 1.67% to $17850 / ton, LME aluminum fell 1.53% to $2637.5 / ton, LME tin fell 0.27% to $33800 / ton, LME lead fell 0.28% to $2145 / ton.
7. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down across the board, with soybean futures down 0.88% at 1046.75 cents per bushel; Corn futures fell 1.04% to 428 cents a bushel, while wheat futures fell 1.83% to 604 cents a bushel.
8. European bond yields mostly rose, with United Kingdom's 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points at 4.015%, France's 10-year yield up 7.9 basis points at 2.937%, Germany's 10-year yield up 5.4 basis points at 2.141%, Italy's 10-year yield up 6.2 basis points at 3.479%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4.7 basis points at 2.926%.
9. U.S. Treasury yields generally closed higher, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 6.6 basis points at 3.72%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 7 basis points at 3.628%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 7.4 basis points at 3.635%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 6.4 basis points at 3.852%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 4.9 basis points at 4.183%.
10. At the end of New York, the dollar index rose 0.32% to 101.97, non-US currencies generally fell, the euro fell 0.12% to 1.1032, the pound fell 1.08% to 1.3124, the Australian dollar fell 0.65% to 0.6840, the dollar rose 0.33% to 146.95, the dollar rose 0.37% to 0.8528, and the offshore yuan fell 157 basis points to 7.0524 against the dollar.
Macro//
1. Over the past 75 years, China has experienced the largest and fastest urbanization process in the history of the world. By the end of 2023, the permanent urban population of mainland China has reached 930 million. In recent years, with the deepening of the new urbanization, the settlement restrictions in cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million have been basically lifted, and the process of urbanization of the rural migrant population has accelerated.
2. The National Day holiday has begun, and the peak of travel has arrived. According to data from a number of travel platforms, the popularity of domestic long-term travel and outbound travel is both high. Ctrip said that benefiting from the double benefits of the visa-free policy and the recovery of global flight capacity, outbound travel on this year's National Day is booming, and the prices of hotels and air tickets have both declined, making the holiday "ultra-high" cost-effective, and the tourism market ushered in the highest peak in the second half of the year.
3. On the third day of the National Day holiday, the overall operation of the national highway is stable and orderly, and it is expected that the traffic volume of the national highway will be about 60 million vehicles today. Some sections of highways in key areas of the country continue to operate at a high level.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. According to the latest equity disclosure information, JPMorgan Chase increased its holdings in BYD shares, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Tsingtao Brewery on September 27. Among them, it bought about 6.52 million shares of BYD with an average transaction price of HK$274.5244 and involved about HK$1.791 billion, increased its holdings of about 6.1164 million shares of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an investment of about HK$1.813 billion, and increased its holdings of about 4.375 million shares of Tsingtao Brewery, involving about HK$242 million.
2. Murong Jun, co-founder, executive director and senior vice president of Meituan, reduced his holdings of 2 million Meituan Hong Kong shares at a price of HK$171.8055 per share on September 30, with a total reduction of about HK$344 million. Guo Guangchang, a shareholder of Xinhua Insurance, reduced his holdings of about 5.34 million H shares of the company on September 27, with an average of HK$21.0976 per share, involving about HK$113 million.
3. Guo Jiayao, investment director of Honghui Asset Management, believes that the overall atmosphere of the Hong Kong stock market has improved, the market is looking forward to further policy news in the mainland, and the consumption and investment markets have picked up, and the market outlook is still repeatedly improving. Chen Jiahe, chief investment officer of Beijing Jiuyuan Qingquan Technology Co., Ltd., believes that the certainty of the mainland stock market rising after the holiday is relatively large, so we find that funds are running into the market. Foreign investors want to grab chips during the holidays, and they definitely want to finish the chips before the A-share market opens.
4. According to brokerage China, the mainland is closed during the National Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply, and mainland investors have also run to enter the market. A Hong Kong insurance agent said that during the National Day holiday, there was a strong demand for bancassurance account opening, and it was difficult to make an appointment at the bank to open an account.
5. According to brokerage China, on the last day before the holiday, A-shares soared dramatically, and the options market was also hot. Since options can provide greater leverage, especially after the 239x contract appeared last week, many investors are eager to try it. It is understood that the number of investors who have consulted futures companies to open options accounts has increased significantly recently, which was very rare in the past.
6. Catalyzed by policies, China's assets have launched a comprehensive and substantial counteroffensive. Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, Mark ·· McMobius, the "godfather of emerging markets", BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Manulife Investment Management have all spoken out. Dalio said the current round of economic stimulus measures will be a historic turning point. Manulife Investment Management expects a significant rebound in the Hong Kong and mainland markets in the short term.
7、外资正在重返中国。 美国对冲基金Mount Lucas Management已建立中国ETF的看涨头寸,新加坡的GAO Capital和韩国的Timefolio Asset Management买入中国蓝筹股。 摩根大通近日耗资约17.71亿港元增持中国平安H股，持股比例增至8.28%。
8. In the first three quarters of this year, the stock and bond market has come out of the unilateral market, and the performance of the public FOF has also shown the characteristics of poor equity and strong fixed income. However, with the recovery of the equity market at the end of September, the performance of many equity FOF and hybrid FOF began to rebound rapidly, and the annual performance of the same type of products has returned to positive, which has greatly improved compared with before, and the highest annual return has recorded 13.52%.
9. Recently, global funds have been enthusiastic about chasing Chinese assets. Looking ahead, foreign institutions continue to be bullish. Market watchers said money that had previously left China's stock market for Japan and Southeast Asia was about to return. A senior portfolio manager in Singapore said it was trimming its long positions in Asia to fund Chinese stocks.
10. On the last day before the holiday, A-shares soared dramatically, and the options market was also hot. Since options can provide greater leverage, especially after the 239x contract appeared last week, many investors are eager to try it. It is understood that the number of investors who have consulted futures companies to open options accounts has increased significantly recently, which was very rare in the past.
11. Morgan Stanley said that if the Chinese government announces more spending measures in the coming weeks, the Chinese stock market could rise by a further 10% to 15%.
12. Zhang Yidong, global chief strategy analyst of Industrial Securities, said that the shock of Hong Kong stocks is coming, which is precisely to verify the reversal logic, rather than a short-lived wave of rebound. In October, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares are expected to turn from the recent short-squeeze rally to a more sustained shock reversal.
13. Standard Chartered said that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is still reasonable and investors' positions are still low, and the bank may continue to be cautiously optimistic about the short-term momentum. Standard Chartered raised the Hang Seng Index to 20,000-22,500 points. Standard Chartered recommends paying attention to opportunistic strategies in Chinese and US equities, deploying high-dividend non-financial state-owned enterprise stocks, mainland consumer discretionary stocks, technology, communication services stocks and other policy beneficiary stocks, as well as United States communication services, technology stocks, large bank stocks and health care stocks.
14. HSBC Research believes that the valuation of China's stock market is still attractive, with a discount of 18% compared to emerging markets, compared to a historical discount of 5%. HSBC's valuation model shows that the A-share market is still undervalued by 15% based on fundamental factors. Investors' current weighting of the A-share market is 230 basis points lower, 10% lower than historical, indicating that the market has the potential to inflow.
15. Before the holiday, the new stock sector took off. Recently, the market has recognized the sub-IPO sector, and based on the main capital flow in the past 5 days, the net inflow of the main funds of Tengyuan Cobalt, Baicheng Pharmaceutical, Huaqin Technology and Huaxia Ophthalmology is more than 50 million yuan. The large holdings of the top 50 stocks of the "sub-new bull" of the public fund indicate that they are optimistic about the future trend.
16. A-shares have risen sharply for 5 consecutive trading days, and the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 21.37%. In the past five days, the net value of many star fund managers has even been higher than that of stock indexes. Zhu Shaoxing, Xie Zhiyu and others went to the front line for investigation. Luxshare Precision, Desay SV, Lens Technology and other companies have recently received extensive attention from fund institutions, and many star fund managers have appeared in related company research.
17. In the A-share market, 35 listed companies have disclosed their third quarterly performance forecasts. Among them, there are 21 companies that disclose specific data, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of more than eighty percent of listed companies is expected to increase year-on-year, and the leading subdivision industry in the "vanguard" has performed well. Market participants believe that a number of leading companies representing the core competitiveness of China's economy are accelerating their rise, which is inseparable from the current China's economic development towards high-quality development.
Finance//
1. Wind data shows that among the 45 public REITs that have been listed in the whole market, 38 have achieved positive returns in the secondary market in the first three quarters. Among them, 20 rose by more than 10%, and Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT led the market with an increase of 30.15%. In the first three quarters of this year, a total of 15 public REITs were established, setting a new high in the number of such products since their launch.
2. With the introduction of a series of blockbuster favorable policies, the enthusiasm for market investment is high. On September 30, the net value of more than 1,000 active equity funds rose by more than 10%, and the index of partial stock hybrid funds rose by 8.23% in a single day, a new high since the index was listed. The net value curve of many funds that have been mired in losses has been quickly repaired recently.
3. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Central Bank of Qatar held a bilateral meeting in Doha to strengthen cooperation in the field of financial services between the two places. During the meeting, the HKMA and the Bank of Qatar discussed a number of co-operation initiatives to strengthen cooperation in the area of financial infrastructure, and shared experience on capital market connectivity, sustainable finance, bond market development, digital assets and talent development. The HKMA looks forward to working closely with the Central Bank of Qatar to facilitate mutual access and further exchanges between the financial markets of the two places.
Housing//
1. Beijing Provident Fund Center: For families with more than two children in Beijing to buy a house, the loan amount of the housing provident fund will be increased by 400,000 yuan, and the maximum loan can be 1.6 million yuan, so as to better meet the rigid housing needs of residents and the needs of diversified improved housing.
2. Since October 8, Yichang City has increased the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan. At the same time, it has launched a policy of increasing the loan amount for talents and families with many children. Optimize the first home loan support policy and remove the requirement that it is linked to the deposit time coefficient and account balance. Implement the policy of "recognising the house but not the first loan", which is only determined based on the actual number of housing units. Carry out the second housing "business to business" loan, and optimize the loan conditions.
3. Jingjiang, Jiangsu Province issued a policy to promote consumption by purchasing houses, and purchased new houses in the same community before the end of the year for loving and caring for the elderly, and gave a subsidy of 80,000 yuan for "filial piety purchase"; If an enterprise purchases more than 3 sets (inclusive) of newly built commercial housing in Jingjiang City at one time to solve the housing problem of employees, it will be given a housing purchase subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price of the enterprise; For the purchase of two-star, three-star or ultra-low energy consumption residential green buildings (new commercial housing), the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans can be increased by 10% and 20% respectively.
4. Before the National Day, Shenzhen proposed a series of favorable policies for the property market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing personal housing loans. During the National Day holiday, the change in policy attracted the attention of many home buyers, and the number of local second-hand housing listings and transactions increased.
Industry//
1. The joint experimental team led by the Purple Mountain Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences successfully realized the kilometer-level terahertz wireless communication transmission of high-definition video signals based on superconducting reception on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is the first time in the world that the high-sensitivity terahertz superconducting receiver technology has been successfully applied to a long-distance wireless communication system.
2. In response to the proposal to promote the development of better-run maternal and child health hospitals into general hospitals, the Hunan Provincial Health Commission pointed out that in view of the decline in the business volume of obstetrics and pediatrics in Hunan Province in recent years, which has triggered the phenomenon of shutdown of obstetric pediatrics in primary hospitals, the health administrative departments at all levels in the province have coordinated the planning and layout of maternal and child health care institutions in their jurisdictions, and taken measures such as stabilizing grassroots institutions, extending the maternal and child health care service chain, and promoting the integration and diversion of personnel, so as to promote the connotative development of maternal and child health care institutions.
3. The opening ceremony of Greenwood Convention and Exhibition Center in Moscow was successfully held. Greenwood held a signing ceremony with eight key Chinese and Russian enterprises settled in the Convention and Exhibition Center, including Yunhao Car Service and Saturn Automobile Company of Russia, and the Chinese car brands sold in Russia include GAC, SAIC, Geely, Xiaomi, Li and so on.
4. According to the mid-term inventory data of the "Eleventh Day" released by Tongcheng Travel, the tourism popularity of major popular tourist cities across the country continued to run at a high level in the first half of the holiday, and the tourism popularity of third-tier and below cities rose rapidly. In terms of outbound travel, Hong Kong, China and Macao, China have strong demand for tourism. Among them, the popularity of hotel bookings in Hong Kong increased by 134% year-on-year.
Overseas//
1. Fed's Goolsbee: The Fed has reduced inflation to a large extent; The economy has not yet been affected by the dock strike; The latest inflation data has reached the Fed's target; The labour market is at full employment. A 25bp cut or 50bp cut is not as important as a significant reduction in rates over the next 12 months to reach a neutral rate; Interest rates will need to fall a lot over the next 12 months.
2. About 45,000 dock workers United States 36 ports on the east coast and along the Mexico Bay, which handle United States 57% of international container traffic and 87% of United States trade. The industry is concerned that the port strike will not only have a "devastating impact" on the United States economy, but could also trigger global supply chain turmoil. JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates that the strike could cause $5 billion a day in economic damage.
3. Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Ryomasa Akasawa, said that he will strive to realize a growth-oriented economy. Broadly speaking, the policy rate of 0.25% is accommodative. Japan is moving towards monetary policy normalization, but getting rid of deflation is a top priority, and the economy cannot be allowed to cool down.
4. Japan deliberator Noguchi Ako said that the Bank of Japan must patiently maintain an accommodative monetary policy because it will take time to dispel the public's perception that prices will not rise sharply in the future. Noguchi is a well-known Japan policy dovish, having voted against the Japan's decision to raise interest rates in July.
5. Neto, President of the Central Bank of Brazil: Inflation is expected to rise in Brazil and he chose not to provide guidance on monetary policy; The pricing of the long-term debt yield curve seems a bit exaggerated.
6. The IMF said Australia needs fiscal austerity if the anti-inflation process stalls. The IMF urged Australia to adopt a holistic approach to housing affordability.
7. Korea President Yoon Seok-yue will visit the Philippines, Singapore and Laos from October 6 to 11, and Korea and ASEAN will upgrade their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
8. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week to September 28 was 225,000, with an expectation of 220,000, and the previous value was revised from 218,000 to 219,000. United States ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 54.9 in September, the highest since February 2023, with an expectation of 51.7 and a previous value of 51.5.
9. The PPI in the euro area fell by 2.3% year-on-year in August, with an expected decline of 2.4%, and the previous value was revised from a decline of 2.1% to a decrease of 2.2%; Month-on-month, it rose 0.6%, expected to rise 0.3%, and the previous value was revised from 0.8% to 0.7%.
International Stock Market //
1. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 2.37%, Youdao falling about 13%, Bilibili and GDS falling more than 8%, Xiaopeng Motors and Weilai falling about 7%, iQiyi falling more than 6%, Weibo, Gaotu Group, Baidu falling more than 5%, Li Auto, Good Future, and Ctrip Group falling more than 3%; In terms of gains, Tiger Brokers rose about 14%, Futu Holdings rose more than 8%, Wuxin Technology rose more than 5%, and Shell rose more than 4%.
2. Market observers said that Buffett may consider buying shares of Japan financial institutions and shipping companies, and Berkshire's return to the yen bond market has led to speculation that Buffett is raising funds to increase his holdings of related value stocks. Berkshire has entrusted banks with the issue of a yen bond in the global market, suggesting that it may increase its holdings in Japan.
3. Tesla plans to launch 4 new batteries in 2026, including batteries for Robotaxi. Tesla is accelerating plans to introduce these technologies in the battery of its electric pickup Cybertruck by the middle of next year.
4. Nvidia executives and directors sold nearly 11 million Nvidia shares in 2024, the most since 2020. It is worth noting that Nvidia insiders also plan to further sell their holdings of Nvidia shares.
5. Amazon will hire about 250,000 people in the United States for the holiday shopping season, the same number as last year, suggesting that the company expects demand in its largest market to remain stable. Amazon usually announces a fall hiring spree to attract new employees; The company recently said it would raise the hourly wages of 800,000 United States transportation and warehousing workers by at least $1.5 to more than $22.
6. According to a document disclosed by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Apple CEO Tim · Cook cashed out a total of $50.276 million after selling 223986 shares of Apple stock. Earlier this week, Cook received 219502 shares of Apple stock as part of the performance reward he received.
7. SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son has outlined a radical timeline for the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), which he believes will soon be able to monitor the health of family members, contact doctors when necessary, make purchases and appointments, evaluate the best investment options, and tutor young children. He brought forward the implementation of artificial general intelligence to the next two to three years, and the popularization of artificial general intelligence is also a long-term goal for companies such as OpenAI, Meta and Google.
8. The Information, citing an internal memo, said that after OpenAI completes a $6.6 billion funding round, the company will allow employees to sell shares for cash. OpenAI's chief financial officer, Sarah ·Fryer, said in the memo that the company "has the ability to offer a tender campaign to provide eligible employees with liquidity options."
9. As part of OpenAI's latest round of financing, Microsoft has invested about $750 million in OpenAI on top of the $13 billion it has already invested in the startup, according to people familiar with the matter. Other investors in the latest round include Thrive Capital, Khosla Ventures, Fidelity Management, Nvidia and SoftBank, among others.
10. Standard Chartered Wealth Solutions' Chief Investment Office issued a fourth-quarter outlook, saying it is bullish on United States and India equities, benefiting from a soft landing of the United States economy, broader earnings growth, and the push of the technology sector. Standard Chartered gave the S&P 500 a 12-month price target of 6170 points, about 8% above the current price, giving India an overweight rating.
11. OpenAI: Established a $4 billion revolving credit line with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Santander, Wells Fargo, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, UBS, and HSBC.
Commodity//
1. Libya's oil minister announced that Libya will resume oil production and export business will return to normal. The move could add hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil per day to the global market after the country experienced a political stalemate.
2. Kazakhstan will provide the maximum amount of compensation for oil overproduction under the OPEC+ framework in October due to the maintenance of the Kashagan field.
3. Asian rice prices fell by the most in more than 16 years, as supply concerns eased after India eased some export restrictions. White rice prices in Thailand fell about 11 percent to $509 a tonne on Wednesday, the largest drop in data compiled since May 2008, according to the Thailand Rice Exporters Association.
4. Barclays reiterated that the fair value of Brent crude next year is estimated at $85 per barrel despite a surplus of 900,000 b/d.
Bond//
1. Tesla plans to issue $783 million in debt, secured by a premium lease.
Foreign exchange//
1. Global foreign exchange reserve managers sold off dollar assets in the second quarter, as the rebound in the dollar prompted them to diversify to other currencies. According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), these reserve managers sold a total of $155 billion worth of dollar assets in the second quarter of this year, the largest since the third quarter of 2023. Of the eight currencies tracked by the IMF, the Japanese yen received the largest inflows, followed by the euro.
2. Bank of England Governor Andrew · Bailey said that the means of cutting interest rates may be more aggressive. The pound fell at least 1% against both the euro and the dollar. Earlier, Bailey said that if inflation remains subdued, the way the central bank cuts interest rates could become "a little more aggressive" and "a little more aggressive." Traders have instead bet on an acceleration of interest rate cuts, which has weakened the sterling's appeal.
Important Economic Agenda //
Review of historical articles
"The Central Bank's Official Announcement Series of King Bombs"
"The Central Bank's Big Move Towards Currency, Real Estate Stocks and Bonds Exchange"
Suddenly! Global sprint interest rate cuts" "Gold bull market, how long can it last? 》
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