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Wednesday, September 25, 2024, the twenty-third day of the eighth month of the Year of the Dragon. Follow me, start a journey of good luck, and like it so that good things happen every day! Dreams come true, full of happiness! Does yesterday's good fortune continue? Today, let's continue to move forward on a journey of good fortune, realize our dreams, and reap full happiness.
"September of Suspense" in the Chair of Power: Interpreting the undercurrents of Japan's political scene
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In September, it was the harvest season, but in Japan's political arena, there was an unusual tense atmosphere, the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would not run for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, for the curtain of this power change drama, nine candidates, like nine forces, fierce competition in the political arena, outlining a complex picture of power, this seemingly open and transparent election, but behind the hidden game of factions, behind-the-scenes manipulation of political veterans, and even subtle influence from the other side of the Pacific
Say goodbye to "factional politics"? An undercurrent surging in a power vacuum
In recent years, with the exposure of a series of political scandals and the impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination, the traditional factional politics seems to have come to an end.Japan
Is the pie valve really gone? The answer is obviously no, as Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Japan, pointed out, the dissolution of the faction is only a superficial phenomenon, in fact, the various factions are still operating in the shadows, looking for new power attachments, this presidential election, more like the process of reshuffling the cards of the factional forces, all forces are waiting and seeing, testing, trying to occupy a favorable position in the new political pattern
Without the "protection" of factionalists, the candidates can only rely on their own strength and charisma to win the support of parliamentarians and party members, which also makes this election full of uncertainties, and no one can predict the final winner until the last minute
Contenders in the spotlight: Who wins the title of "The Chosen One"?
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The nine candidates, with different backgrounds and styles, have become the password for the outside world to interpret this election
Shinjiro Koizumi, with the aura of a "noble son in politics", with his handsome appearance and the political legacy of his father Junichiro Koizumi, has a high popularity among the younger generation, and his lack of political experience and clear personal opinions also makes him questioned as "empty on the surface"
Sanae Takaichi, a staunch supporter of Shinzo Abe's line, advocates strengthening national defense and being tough on China, and has many supporters among conservatives, and her overly tough political stance has also made her questionable in foreign policy, and may even cause concern in United States
Shigeru Ishiba, as an "outlier" in the LDP, dared to criticize the shortcomings of the party, and had a high popularity among party members, and his maverick style and challenge to the party establishment also made him not have a high support rate among parliamentarians and it was difficult to win the support of party bigwigs
In addition to these three high-profile candidates, several others are not completely without opportunities, such as Hayashi Fangmasa and Kato Katsunobu, all of whom have rich political experience and network resources, and if they can show their unique advantages in the election, they may also become a "dark horse"
The game of the "kingmaker": the subtle tilt of the balance of power
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In this war without gunpowder, in addition to the candidates in front of the stage, the "kingmakers" behind the scenes also play a pivotal role, Liberal Democratic Party Vice President Taro Aso and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, as the "old fox" in the political arena, with rich political experience and strong political resources, have become the key figures in influencing the outcome of the election
Aso's openly supportive of Kono Taro but allowing faction members to vote freely shows his old political skill, and he is more like using Kono as a pawn to test the reactions of all parties in order to make the best choice for himself at a critical moment
Suga Yoshihide bet on Shinjiro Koizumi, hoping to return to the center of power by supporting this "rising star in the political arena", he knows that although Shinjiro Koizumi is inexperienced, he is young and promising, with a fresh image, and if he can succeed in taking the position, he will become a trump card in his hands
The game between the two "kingmakers" has added more uncertainty to this election, and their every move may trigger a chain reaction that will ultimately determine the direction of Japan's politics
"The protagonist of absence": the helplessness and expectation of the Japan people
In this contest of political elites, the Japanese people seem to have become the "protagonists of absence", their voices, their demands, seem to be drowned out in the noise of political struggle
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Japan implements a parliamentary cabinet system, in which the prime minister is elected by members of parliament rather than directly elected by the whole people, and although this system design ensures political stability, it also leads to the "aphasia" of public opinion
As Professor Koichi Nakano said, no matter who is ultimately elected prime minister, it will be difficult to truly change the political status quo in Japan under the current political ecology, and the LDP's long-term rule has formed a deep-rooted interest pattern, and any politician who tries to challenge this pattern will face great resistance
We can still see that more and more Japanese people are beginning to pay attention to politics and express their demands, and they hope that in the future, Japan will be more democratic, more open, and more transparent, and truly become a country "ruled by the people, for the people".
Conclusion: Where will Japan go in the foggy future?
On September 27, the results of the LDP presidential election will be announced and a new prime minister will be born, which is just the beginning of a new era for Japan
Against the backdrop of drastic changes in the global political and economic landscape, Japan is facing unprecedented challenges, such as sluggish economic growth, a declining birthrate and an aging population, and huge pressure on social security
How will the new Prime Minister respond to these challenges? How will Japan get out of this predicament and find a new direction for development? These questions are still full of unknowns
One thing is certain, that is, only by truly listening to public opinion and following the trend of the times can we lead Japan to a better future
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