On September 25, the market rose and fell throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index gained and lost 2,900 points. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.62%.
The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 1,157.4 billion yuan, an increase of 186.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time since May 6. Individual stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 4,100 stocks rose in the whole market.
In terms of sectors, diversified finance, media, cross-border payment, e-commerce and other sectors were among the top gainers, while a few sectors such as liquor fell.
Although today's A-shares are still mainly rising, unlike yesterday's bald white line, the index finally walked out of the "explosive upper shadow line" on the basis of gapping high. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a negative line, and Wind All A closed out of the positive line.
Usually at this time, experienced investors have begun to be wary of the risk of a pullback. At least operationally, "adding positions on dips" is better than "chasing high quilts".
Recall that at the beginning of February this year, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and walked out of the strong 8 consecutive yangs of "six relatives do not recognize". The Shanghai Composite Index went all the way from 2635 to 3000 points before entering a sideways shock.
And why is it that today, just the next day after the big rise, there are signs of correction in the market? Is this the expiration of the "Bull Market Experience Card"?
First of all, it is recommended that everyone do not rush and keep a normal mind.
In the early stage of a weak market turning strong, the general mentality of investors is to "question first and then believe", and they have a strong willingness to rush away at the slightest disturbance; On the contrary, in the middle and late stages of the bull market, when "buying the bottom can make money" has become a consensus, shareholders are more likely to choose the "pattern" or even increase their positions during the pullback.
Secondly, as intraday volatility amplifies, if you feel that you can't grasp it, you should see the trend clearly.
For example, investors who entered the market before today have a high probability of having a thicker profit cushion in the short term, and even happen to be the main force of today's high and low positions. Suppose (just assume) that in the next few trading days, the market will cover the gap opened higher today, and fall back further, and only need to exit the market at the pre-set take profit point - and this is the least expected trend of this rally.
Combined with the huge optimistic expectations on the policy and news since yesterday, it is actually difficult to imagine what variables can appear in the short term, which is enough to reverse the market's desire for a big rise.
Based on this view, let's review the two major details of today's market.
1) Big finance continues to lead the rally
As of the close, diversified finance, bank insurance, securities and other sectors have stood on the list of gainers.
Judging from the cumulative gains in the past 5 trading days, this wave of rebound market has been brewing to breaking out, and the most active is also a pan-financial theme.
After all, the blockbuster positive that was hotly discussed in the market yesterday came from the policy combination of "one line, one game and one meeting".
To exaggerate it, even if you don't know what they are specifically good for, as long as you know that it is good for "stock trading" itself, it is enough.
Dongxing Securities Research Report pointed out that the policy has accelerated the implementation and innovative tools have exceeded market expectations.
The policy is launched in the form of a combination of punches, and it is relatively rare for the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision to jointly issue it.
The central bank's policy covers the market attention to the high degree of RRR cut, the stock mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio reduction and the central bank policy interest rate adjustment, more than expected proposed a new monetary policy tool to support the stability of the stock market, to brokers, funds, insurance institutions to provide asset pledge from the central bank to obtain liquidity policy tools, to listed companies to provide stock repurchase and re-lending policy tools, in essence, to institutions and listed companies to increase leverage, to bring medium and long-term sources of funds to the capital market, and from the expression can be seen, There is still a lot of room for imagination in terms of support, which is essentially that the central bank provides liquidity for the stock market through financial institutions and listed companies.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has continued to promote new measures in the construction of the system, promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and promoting mergers and acquisitions, encouraging listed companies to strengthen industrial integration, and the recent release of the draft of the guidelines for the management of the market value of listed companies has improved the regulatory tolerance of mergers and acquisitions, all of which have given the capital market more room for development to a certain extent.
It believes that the investment value of leading institutions in the securities and insurance industries is expected to continue to increase in the future. In addition, in the context of the vigorous development of ETFs, the investment value of securities ETFs is also worth paying attention to due to the difference in investment needs.
Western Securities also said that the deepening of capital market reform and the high-quality development of the industry are expected to promote the repair of the fundamentals and valuation of the non-bank sector. At present, the valuation and holdings of the non-bank sector are at the bottom of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for sector repair under the improvement of market sentiment.
2) Broken net shares have attracted attention
Flush software shows that on the list of gainers of the "market wind direction", "broken net stocks" performed well today, and they rarely entered a series of short-term indicators.
This is because last night the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Regulatory Guidelines for Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management (Consultation Draft)". It requires that long-term net-breaking companies should disclose the valuation improvement plan, including the objectives, deadline and specific measures, and make a special explanation on the implementation of the valuation improvement plan in the annual performance briefing.
To put it simply, broken stocks, especially those high-quality assets that have been "mistakenly killed", have greater appreciation expectations, and stock speculation is "speculation expectations".
Correspondingly, when "over-falling and waiting to rise" has gradually become the current market's sweetness, it is reasonable that the popular high-ranking stocks in the early stage continue to ebb and flow. Today, CCCC Real Estate is quite representative when it comes out of the "sky floor".
According to the data, as of today's close, there are 732 constituent stocks under the concept of "broken net stocks", of which 19 stocks have a daily limit.
According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, as of yesterday's (September 24) close, excluding negative data, the number of broken net stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 738, accounting for 13.79% of the entire A shares. At present, the net breaking rate of A-shares has jumped to the highest level in recent years, and has exceeded many previous historical bottoms of A-shares.
Zhu Qi of China Galaxy Securities believes that the net stock is preferred to invest in companies with relatively high return on capital and return on net assets. Xing Xing, director of the Pershing Securities Research Institute, believes that the policy boost and the company's efforts will break the net stock or continue to rise.
3) The offshore RMB exchange rate "broke 7" in early trading
After yesterday's sharp rise, the offshore yuan briefly rose above the important mark of 7 in early trading this morning, touching 6.9915.
According to the analysis of brokerage China, this means:
First, the external funds have a high degree of recognition of yesterday's goodness;
second, confidence in Chinese assets is increasing;
Third, follow-up expectations for policy and fundamentals have also occurred.
In the future, how will the RMB go? It may depend on three variables: first, the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, although it exceeded expectations in September, the subsequent path may be relatively flexible and will be chosen; Second, the effect of domestic economic stimulus, effective demand will be able to rebound quickly and steadily; The third is the attitude of the regulatory level towards the exchange rate.
And judging from the current trend, the second major variable may be gradually becoming more certain.
In the morning, the central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 300 billion yuan was launched on September 25, with a term of 1 year, the highest bid interest rate of 2.3%, the lowest bid interest rate of 1.9%, and the winning bid interest rate of 2%. After the operation, the balance of the medium-term lending facility was 6,878 billion yuan. Wind data shows that the last MLF winning bid rate was 2.3%.
Investments are risky, and independent judgment is important
This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk.
Cover image source: Screenshot of market software by reporter Zhao Yun and editor by Peng Shuiping