It is true that the price of fat pigs has been falling for a month recently, but the sales price of pork has not fallen but has risen, what is the reason? According to the analysis of experts, this year into a new pig price cycle, on May 18 this year, pig prices began to show a slow upward trend, from the Dragon Boat Festival to the beginning of August continued to rise, the price of pigs per catty rose from about 7 yuan to break through 11 yuan, pork prices from about 10 yuan per catty to more than 20 yuan, slaughtered a pig breeding profit of more than 600 yuan, high level of operation of farms more than 1000 yuan. Since mid-August, the price of fat pigs has continued to fall, and the price of fat pigs per catty has fluctuated around 9-10 yuan, which is more than one yuan per catty and nearly two yuan per catty during the peak period, but it feels that although the pig price has continued to fall recently, the pork price in the vegetable market or supermarket has risen, what is the reason for this?
At present, the main reason for the continuous decline in pig prices is that pig farmers know that the beginning of the new price cycle is the dividend period of pig production, so pig farmers are holding a wait-and-see attitude, and the purchase of farms follows the method in July 2022, which greatly reduces the number of fat pigs on the market, artificially reduces the number of fat pigs on the market, and the lack of pigs in the market promotes the sharp rise in pig prices. At the same time, the traditional festival Dragon Boat Festival overlaps with the college entrance examination time, as well as the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea implement a fishing moratorium of about 3 months every year, the aquatic products in the market are greatly reduced, people can only consume pork, the domestic demand for pork increases, and the price of live pigs rises sharply. Since May, almost every scale farm is a large number of hoarding fat pigs for secondary fattening, and after a few months, these farms have accumulated a large number of large fat pigs, while the standard pigs are still being fattened out every day. The second fattening profit is low or even loss-making, generally the small pig long bones, the middle pig long meat, the big pig long oil, the production of 2.5 kg of lean meat feed can only produce 1 kg of fat.
Secondly, after the second fattening of the fat pig two meat is equivalent to the meat production of three standard pigs, so now the farm is not a lack of fat pigs, but a large number of fat pigs need to be slaughtered in time, now some farms can not bear the first slaughter of fat pigs, other pig farmers also suffer from phobia, worried that the pig decline will bring huge losses, so with a large number of slaughter accumulation so long so many fat pigs. Naturally, the market is in a situation of oversupply, and the price of live pigs continues to fall.
The second is the end of the fishing moratorium, a large number of aquatic products will be marketed, and the Yellow, East and South China Seas will implement a fishing moratorium of about three months every year. Since the implementation of the fishing moratorium in May, the market Shanghai products have been greatly reduced, aquatic products are only freshwater aquaculture, people can only consume pork, this period of time due to the lack of aquatic products in the market, resulting in the price of live pigs continued to rise, after the fishing moratorium in August, a large number of aquatic products will be listed. The long-lost seafood is on the market, and the price is low, consumers reduce the consumption of pork and increase the consumption of seafood, resulting in weak pork consumption, pork consumption decreases, and the number of fat pigs on the market continues to increase, which causes pork to be in a situation of oversupply, and the price of live pigs continues to decline. The pork sold in our vegetable market here is not going down but slowly rising.
Recently, pig prices have continued to fall, but meat prices have risen slowly, what is the reason? This year has entered a new pig price cycle, currently belongs to the pig price upward period, pig prices to rise as the mainstream, I think this year's pig prices and pork prices are all the way up, into September, the temperature gradually dropped, the schools have been opened, into the annual pork consumption season. The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will lead to an increase in pork consumption, and I think there will be a third rebound of the year in mid-to-late September. Chinese people have a traditional habit, that is, the price of fat pigs falls, and the price of pork still continues to rise, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. For example, in June 2019, domestic pork prices skyrocketed, and the prices of pork's follow-up industries (breakfast shops, catering industries) skyrocketed with the soaring price of pork.
This is mainly because slaughtering companies and pork retailers in order to earn more profits, generally fat pigs increase in price, slaughterhouse sales of white pigs immediately increase in price, pork retailers are also immediately immediately price increases, because slaughtering companies and pork retailers are the intermediate link in the pig industry chain to make a steady profit, they will not do a loss-making business. If the price of fat pigs falls, they still sell at the price when the price of fat pigs is high, and it generally takes a transition period of 3-5 days to come down to match the price of fat pigs. Therefore, the price of pork in the farmers' market now seems to be higher than some time ago, and it will slowly come down, which is an unspoken law.
At the same time, this year's domestic pork imports have decreased significantly, the price of imported pork is lower than the domestic one, the import of pork has a great impact on pig prices, at the beginning of the year due to the continuous decline in the price of fat pigs, pig farmers have long been in a small profit or even a loss, in order to stabilize pig production, reduce imported pork, this year's imported pork has been greatly reduced, from January to July this year, the mainland has imported 600,000 tons of pork (excluding offal), down 43.2% year-on-year. The decrease in imports has led to the lack of sufficient reserve pork to suppress the continuous rise in pork prices in the market, resulting in the continuous rise in market pork prices and the high and fast rise in pig prices.