A few days ago, the Passenger Association released a market analysis in August, the production of narrow passenger cars was 2.158 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and wholesale sales were 2.154 million, down 3.9% year-on-year, a difference of about 4,000 vehicles, and the difference between the two data in July was 17,000 units. In addition, retail sales in August were 1.905 million units, a difference of 249,000 units from wholesale volumes, slightly higher than 245,000 units in August.
On the whole, the convergence of market demand and production capacity in August is more ideal, which is also conducive to the digestion of inventory. The data shows that from January to August, manufacturers' inventories fell by 150,000 units (down 40,000 units in the same period last year); Overall, passenger car inventories in domestic channels decreased by 620,000 units (down 170,000 units in the same period last year).
So what is the inventory situation of the top 10 manufacturers on the sales list in August?
Four brands are offloaded, three of which are joint venture brands
As shown in the figure below, BYD's retail sales reached 379596 in the top 10 sales in August, 8,742 more than the wholesale volume. You must know that in July, its wholesale sales were 341,000 units, and retail sales were 312,000 units, which can also be seen that BYD has gradually reached a balance between production and sales.
In addition to BYD, the other three "burden-reducing" brands are all joint venture forces, namely FAW-Volkswagen (128,000), SAIC-Volkswagen (100,000), which ranks third in the retail sales list, and GAC Toyota (63,000), which ranks tenth. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen had the highest degree of burden reduction (15,000), FAW-Volkswagen (2,000 units), and GAC Toyota (7,000 units).
Combined with the data in July, the main strategy of the joint venture brand at this stage is slightly conservative, focusing on burden reduction, so the data performance will decline to a certain extent. For example, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, and FAW Toyota's wholesale volume fell by 16.7%, 22.8%, and 20.7% respectively in August, helping dealers alleviate inventory pressure by reducing volume. This can also be seen in the inventory report of the China Automobile Association in August, the joint venture brand coefficient fell by 30%, making the inventory coefficient in August hit a new low in the past two years.
The wholesale volume is greater than the retail volume, are they all overseas efforts?
Next are the brands with more wholesale volume than retail sales, which are Geely (136184), Chery Automobile (110497), Changan Automobile (97993), SAIC-GM-Wuling (74593), FAW Toyota (71993), and Tesla China (63456), which ranked second in retail sales. Among them, the most special data is Geely and Chery, if according to the wholesale volume, then Chery is 204474, the second in the industry. According to retail sales, Geely is second, but compared with wholesale sales, it has shrunk by about 45,000 units, and Chery is equivalent to "halved" and ranked fourth.
The main reason for this difference is in the volume of exports. According to the official production and sales poster data, Geely Automobile's export volume in August was 45,045 units, while Chery's was 97,866 units, indicating that the two have a certain degree of popularity overseas.
And this situation is also reflected in a number of brands, Tesla is one of them, 63,000 in August is domestic, 23,000 is foreign. The other is Great Wall Motors, with wholesale sales of 80,600 and overseas exports of 40,400, accounting for nearly half of the overall data.
To be honest, it is indeed a good thing that Chinese brands can steadily start their overseas journey, but the domestic market should also be kept.
As for other brands. The difference between Changan Automobile's wholesale and retail sales is 13,000 units, and FAW Toyota's is 2,000 units, which is also normal considering the huge sales network system of the two. In the case of SAIC-GM-Wuling, its official production and sales report shows that the wholesale volume is 84,000 units, and the difference between retail sales is close to 10,000 units.
All in all, the comparison of wholesale volume and retail volume in August may become the norm in the future: although the joint venture brand will decline, the strong brand will still stabilize its position when the production and sales and market demand are balanced. The proportion of overseas exports of Chinese brand leaders will gradually increase, but we must not let overseas exports become a fig leaf for unsatisfactory domestic sales.