On the evening of September 10, international oil prices "dived" and fell sharply. Oil prices are trading lower again on the back of strong supply, demand concerns and rampant speculative selling. WTI crude oil futures for October delivery closed down $2.96, or 4.31%, at $65.75 a barrel, the lowest since May last year. Brent crude oil futures for November delivery closed down $2.65, or 3.69%, at $69.19 a barrel, the lowest since December 2021.
Weak economic data has sparked concerns about oil demand from the world's two largest consumers, further fueling fears of a surplus next year, analysts said. On September 10, U.S. energy stocks also fell sharply, with the S&P 500 energy index falling more than 2.3% at one point, hitting its lowest point since February. In terms of individual stocks, Exxon Mobil fell more than 2%, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum fell more than 1%. According to Securities Daily, analysts believe that the main reason for international oil prices to fall below the $70 / barrel mark is that United States macroeconomic data last week was less than expected. According to public data, the number United States of new non-farm payrolls in August 2024 rebounded to 142,000 in August 2024, but it was less than expected, and the previous value was revised sharply downward; An Ziwei, senior analyst of energy and carbon neutrality at the Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, said that the market is worried about United States macroeconomic data, which has a direct impact on the demand side of crude oil, resulting in a continuous decline in oil prices. Li Qi, a researcher at the investment consulting department of Zhongyan Futures, added that the current crude oil supply and demand side game is obvious, and it is in the off-season of demand, and investors are worried about the current round of United States macroeconomic failure to increase demand for crude oil. In addition, risks such as exchange rate fluctuations in overseas markets also put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the OPEC+ (a cooperative alliance of OPEC members and non-OPEC producers) voluntary production cuts held an extraordinary meeting and decided to extend the full voluntary production cut for two months until the end of November, which also means that its members will withdraw from the voluntary production cut agreement month by month from December, and crude oil supply is expected to further expand. On September 10, OPEC released a monthly report that expected global crude oil demand to grow by 2.03 million b/d in 2024, compared with the previous forecast of 2.11 million b/d. Global crude oil demand is expected to grow by 1.74 million b/d in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 1.78 million b/d. Its crude oil production averaged 26.59 million barrels per day in August 2024, down 197,000 barrels from July, mainly due to lower production in Libya. OPEC maintained its 2025 forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC producer-cutting countries at 1.1 million b/d. On the evening of September 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24 o'clock on September 5, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 100 yuan per ton. According to statistics, after the current round of retail price limit reduction of refined oil has been implemented, the domestic retail price limit has undergone a total of 18 adjustments since 2024, of which 7 have been raised, 7 have been lowered, and 4 have been stranded. After offsetting each other, the standard gasoline was raised by 150 yuan/ton during the year, and the standard diesel was increased by 145 yuan/ton. Disclaimer: The content and data of the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
Source: National Business Daily, China Fund News, Xinhua Finance, Securities Daily
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