Last year, the Philippine Department of Agriculture issued a military order to export 54,000 tons of durian to the mainland. However, according to mainland customs data, the mainland will only import more than 3,000 tons of durian from the Philippines in 2023, and the durian export target for the first half of 2024 will only be nearly 7%. Up to now, the Philippines' durian inventory is at least 50,000 tons, and the unsalable durian accumulation warehouse is almost moldy.
The durian is still the same durian, and the only thing that has changed is the geopolitical relationship between China and the Philippines.
Since last year, the Philippines and United States have repeatedly stirred up trouble on the South China Sea issue, which has seriously affected the relations between China and the Philippines as neighbors. In the face of the current situation of unsalable Philippine durian, many netizens clapped their hands and said that they deserved it.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. apparently realized that the situation was not right, so he repatriated Chinese citizens who gambled offshore and actively sought a peaceful settlement of the dispute with China through the Maritime Commission. But can Marcos Jr.'s measures to make amends save his economic predicament?
The Philippines is to blame
When it comes to the Philippines, all that comes to mind is the fragrant melons and fruits everywhere. The Philippines has a monsoon tropical rainforest climate with rain, heat and humidity, with an average annual temperature of 27°C, so tropical fruits such as durian are abundant.
As the largest trading partner of the Philippines, China's total bilateral trade between the two countries reached US$71.9 billion last year, of which the mainland's exports to the Philippines reached US$52.4 billion. The mainland has absorbed the huge agricultural market in the Philippines, providing a vast market for the Philippine fruit industry.
According to rough statistics, China imports more than 1.4 million tons of durian every year, accounting for 1/5 of the global total, and on average, one out of every five durians is eaten by Chinese, making it the world's largest durian consumer. However, due to the scarcity of local durian cultivation, China's durian supply has been dependent on imports from Southeast Asia.
Neighboring countries rely on the Chinese market to make a lot of money, and the salivating Philippines naturally wants a piece of the cake. In 2023, the Philippines has formulated a series of export plans for the Chinese durian market, promising to export 54,000 tons of durian to China, and even expanding the durian planting area for this purpose.
Having such a huge economic market in China is a great blessing for the Philippines. However, despite the Philippines' efforts to promote durian exports to China throughout the year, the final customs data shows that the Philippines' export share has not even reached a fraction of the target, tens of thousands of farmers have lost their money, and the Philippines' proud agricultural economy has fallen into unprecedented difficulties.
Not only that, but the most difficult thing for the Marcos administration to accept is that China's economic trade with ASEAN has achieved a growth rate of 4.8% in the first half of 2024, while China-Philippines trade has continued to decline for three consecutive months, and the largest decline in a single month once reached 10.3%. Looking at the mountains of durian and the declining bilateral trade, Marcos is finally starting to reflect on why.
In fact, the reason is very simple, on the one hand, the quality of durian in the Philippines is not excellent, and even far inferior to Musang King in Thailand and Golden Pillow in Viet Nam. Coupled with the backward transportation technology of the Philippines, many durians have rotted before they arrive at Chinese customs, and there is simply no competitive advantage compared with other Southeast Asian countries.
The second aspect is the main reason, that is, the Philippines has repeatedly taken improper actions on the sensitive territorial waters of the two countries, which has seriously violated the principles and bottom line of the Chinese. provoked China, and wanted to use the Chinese market to make money, which is called "wanting to eat and smashing the pot".
This kind of behavior is naturally resisted and spurned by mainland consumers, so many Chinese consumers said: Even if the fruit of the Philippines rots on the ground, we will not bend down to pick it up!
When the Marcos administration realized the predicament in hindsight, it immediately felt anxious and could no longer bear it, so he took the initiative to lower its posture and demanded that the maritime authorities persist in resolving the South China Sea issue through peaceful means, and rely on existing diplomatic channels and mechanisms to actively communicate with the mainland.
At the same time, Philippine Foreign Secretary Manalo also said that he will go to Beijing this month to hold the 10th meeting of the consultation mechanism with high-level officials of the mainland on the South China Sea issue.
If Marcos wants to repair Sino-Philippine relations now, it is completely impossible to rely on sending high-level officials to the mainland to speak softly. The mainland has long stated that if it wants to bring about a substantial improvement in China-Philippines relations, the Philippines must unswervingly eliminate all interference from external forces.
In addition, a few days ago, Chinese and Philippine law enforcement agencies joined forces again to repatriate 100 Chinese citizens who gambled offshore in the Philippines, and so far the two sides have cooperated to repatriate a total of 380 Chinese citizens. Offshore gambling has caused serious disruption to the social order in the Philippines, and it is also a key target of the mainland government, and the two sides hit it off on this point.
Whether it is the repatriation of citizens or the dispatch of high-level officials, the reason why Marcos has shown a deferential attitude is not entirely out of salvage measures for the setback of exports to China and the agricultural economy. After all, for a leader like Marcos, who would rather sacrifice his own national interests and follow the United States in raising the banner of "anti-China", the peasantry's wail is actually not worth mentioning.
The real driving force that forced Marcos to bow his head was actually the Duterte family. The Duterte family has now made a complete break with Marcos, and Davao City, which he runs, has a long history of good cooperation with China, and last year the economy grew by 6.7 percent, making it the sixth trillion peso economy in the Philippines.
With Davao City booming, Duterte Sr. and his sons are planning to run in the Philippine midterm elections next year, and the family is preparing for the 2028 election. This has created a major sense of crisis for Marcos, who is desperate to repair Sino-Philippine relations to prove that he still has the ability to manage the situation between China and the Philippines.
The source of the deterioration of China-Philippines relations
The source of the deterioration of China-Philippines relations lies in the South China Sea, a complex region. The series of provocative acts by the Philippines, the joint pressure of the United States and Western forces, and the resolute and forceful countermeasures of the mainland have made the South China Sea issue the focus of international attention in recent years.
At the end of December 2023, a Philippine supply vessel, an official vessel, and two coast guard vessels openly intruded into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao in the Spratly Islands without the permission of the mainland in an attempt to deliver construction supplies to the remaining warships. During this period, the Philippine vessels even ignored warnings and brazenly rammed the mainland's coast guard vessels, seriously violating the mainland's sovereignty. This is the sixth time that the Philippines has intruded into mainland waters in the second half of 2023.
On June 17, 2024, the Philippines dispatched six more ships to the waters off Ren'ai Jiao near the Nansha Islands on the mainland. It was later learned that the operation was under the direct command of the Western Philippine Military District, which was an unprecedented escalation of the situation. The mainland coast guard was on standby, inspecting and driving away the Philippine vessels that had illegally entered the country, and at the same time seized a large number of firearms and supplies. During this period, a collision broke out between the two sides, and the intensity of the confrontation was the most intense in the past decade.
On May 11, the Philippines hyped that China would reclaim land at Senbin Reef, and then dispatched two patrol ships, the USS Cabra and the USS Teresa · Magbanua, to the reef and stayed in the lagoon. It is clear that the Philippines wants to repeat the drama of the Sierra Madre, turning the two patrol ships into semi-permanent structures and obstructing the mainland's activities at Sembin Reef.
The reason why the Philippines, a projectile island country, dares to flaunt its might in front of the mainland is because of the support of United States and other extraterritorial forces behind it. In particular, the existence of the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" has further fueled the arrogance of the Philippines.
Even though the Philippines is currently facing such a dire economic situation, with its government's outstanding debt reaching a high of 15.7 trillion pesos by the end of July, the Philippines is still bent on putting pressure on China. On September 9, the Philippine defense secretary announced that he would consider purchasing 40 modern fighters to facilitate the formation of an effective threat in the subsequent conflict.
This provocative remark is extremely provocative, and the goal of the so-called "follow-up conflict" of the Philippines is self-evident. Whether it's the economy or defense, as long as the Philippines wants to make a move, then come over!
Information sources:
Phoenix.com: Exports to China have plummeted, and the Philippines has 50,000 tons of durian that is unsalable, but it still wants to buy 40 fighters to deter the South China Sea
Xinhuanet: International Observation丨The Philippines and the United States colluded to provoke and jeopardize regional peace and stability in the South China Sea
The Paper: Observations: Expansion, Convergence and Continuity: Focusing on the Philippines' New Strategies in the South China Sea (Part I)
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