#记录我的9月生活#
The third step assumes that the discount rate is WACC.
We calculate the cost of equity and the cost of debt separately according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
Cost of equity - risk-free yield Rf, 3.30% of the yield on five-year Treasury bonds;
β coefficient, we use the linear regression method, using Hikvision's return on securities and the return of the Shanghai Composite Index, and the regression estimate is 0.83;
The average return on capital is Rm, and we take the five-year average return of the Shanghai Composite Index, which is 9.96%.
Therefore, the cost of equity is 8.83%.
After-tax debt cost - take the short-term interest rate of the bank at 4.35%, the long-term interest rate at 4.75%, the bond adjustment coefficient at 2, and the income tax rate at the average effective tax rate of 12.85% in the past three years, which can be calculated to be 7.6%
In addition, the equity ratio is 96.85% and the debt ratio is 3.15% (short-term debt ratio is 3.08% and long-term debt ratio is 0.07%), so the WACC can be approximated to 8.79%
The fourth step is the sustainable growth rate.
Considering the long-term stability of the security industry, as long as it occupies the subdivision track, the growth rate is relatively guaranteed, and the civilian market is opened, and the growth rate of video surveillance is relatively stable
Therefore, a relatively optimistic sustainable growth portfolio is adopted: an optimistic estimate of 6% (GDP growth) and a conservative estimate of 3% (CPI growth).
The fifth step is valuation.
Based on the growth rate above, the optimistic value is set at 22% and the conservative value is set at 12%
We further divide its development stages into four stages: "high-speed growth period, shift growth period, stable growth stage, and sustainable growth stage", and assign different growth rates
According to the optimistic growth rate - the first stage: the high-speed growth stage, assuming that the growth rate is A=22%, the time is about 3 years
The second stage: the shift growth period, the growth rate is reduced to 60%*A of the first stage, which is 13.2%, and the time is about 4 years; The third stage: the stable growth stage, the growth rate is 8.8%, and the time is 3 years. After that, the perpetual growth rate is set at 6%
Therefore, the optimistic data assumption combination is: growth rate of 22%, discount rate of 8.79%, and sustainable growth rate of 6%.
According to the conservative growth rate - the first stage: the high-speed growth stage assumes that the growth rate is A=12%, and the time is about 3 years; The second stage: the shift growth period, the growth rate is reduced to 60%*A of the first stage, which is 7.2%, and the time is about 4 years
The third stage: the stable growth stage, with a growth rate of 4.8% and a period of 3 years. After that, the perpetual growth rate is set at 3% (the long-term level of CPI)
Therefore, the conservative data assumptions are combined: growth rate of 12%, discount rate of 8.79%, and sustainable growth of 3%.
Based on the above parameters, we calculate that the enterprise value is about 151.8 billion yuan to 451.2 billion yuan, deducting its net debt of 4.5 billion yuan
The enterprise value is between 147.3 billion yuan and 446.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a static price-earnings ratio of 15 times to 47 times in 2017
However, in terms of valuation, although the absolute valuation method is the most scientific valuation system, if only one valuation method is used, the degree of reliability is still limited. A variety of valuation logics corroborate each other to arrive at more reliable answers
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market