Editor's brief: Why is the global situation so complex now? What is the way to deal with these complexities? What can researchers contribute? Former United Kingdom Director of Economic and Business Policy in London, Siyi Robert, recently gave a detailed answer at the Matilda Strategic Dialogue 2024.
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Let's start with the first question. The world is going through three major crises and great changes. The first is what President Xi Jinping called "great changes unseen in a century". He was referring to the geopolitical crisis that culminated in the Second World War and the resulting order, which was a crisis in terms of geopolitics. But I would say that on the economic front, the world is going through the biggest change in 160 years. Why 160 years? Because around 1880, the United States surpassed United Kingdom to become the world's largest economy, entering a period of United States economic dominance. Thus, all living people today live in a world where United States is the largest economy. However, according to the World Bank, this is over. If measured in terms of purchasing power parity, China is more inclined to market exchange rates, so we have to wait 5 or 10 years to do that, but this is coming to an end.
The other change is the biggest in 532 years. Why is there such an unfamiliar and precise number? Because it is related to 1492. And one of the greatest events in world history in 1492 was the discovery of the New World by Christopher Columbus, which established permanent trade between Europe and United States, marking 500 years of European hegemony. But this is also coming to an end, as other countries rise one after another.
On a cultural level, Europe spread European culture to the rest of the world because of its domination in the world. Some people have the illusion that the whole world is going to be like this. But now it turns out that this is not the case. China will not become like United States, United States wants to impose his values on the world, China does not want to do this, and United States cannot do it. India will not become like China or United States. We're entering a new, multicultural world, and we can't change that trend, like it or not.
Therefore, the geopolitical crisis, the economic development crisis, and the cultural diversity crisis have erupted superimposed, resulting in an extremely complex situation today.
So is it possible to get through it without a crisis? Absolutely completely impossible. But another goal is to get through without a major war. This is the conclusion of how to deal with this issue.
2
I lived in Russia from 1992 to 2000, and a good friend of mine was a senior negotiator between the Soviet Union and United States, who helped draft the treaty between United States and the Soviet Union. These terms need to be formulated in extreme detail. One of his explanations reminded me of my definition of diplomacy. He said: Lao Luo, some people think that diplomacy is trickery and strategy, and they are fooling enemies and scientists, which is all rubbish. You can't stop a great power from acting in its own interests, such as the United States and the USSR. The danger is that it may act on the basis of misinformation, including misinformation about predicting the future strategies of other countries. Therefore, the purpose of diplomacy is to avoid acting on misinformation. He said that it is not as easy to do as it is explained, and this is how to understand the situation absolutely clearly in this way.
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How does this affect our researchers? Some of us know the real situation, but the danger is that there are a lot of misconceptions. For example, when I read some articles in the Wall Street Journal, there was a lot of misunderstanding of China, which was very dangerous. I remember Adolf · Hitler saying before the invasion of the Soviet Union: The Soviet Union is like a broken house, kicking it off and collapsing with a bang. And this provoked the largest war in the history of mankind, one of the few good results was the complete destruction of his regime. So now, I think the role of the researcher is to make sure that the other side understands what's really going on. That's why conversations like this are so important. The United States canceled the visas of some scholars who disagreed with him, which is very stupid. Every country must protect itself from technological espionage, and I understand that. But if you want to know what's really going on, you need to report accurately about the country, and it should encourage travel to the United States.
I have been studying the Chinese economy for 32 years, and I am very happy to join the Chongyang National People's Congress, where we have a very leading research project. Chinese talk a lot about China's economy, but in fact, not entirely right. There are many people who don't know much about the Chinese economy than I do, but it's a fact that I was able to study the relationship between the Chinese economy and the international economy. One of the exciting things right now is that we're building a multidisciplinary research team of economists, statisticians, IT people (IT people are critical to their place in economic research right now), and I'm one of them. I am also very willing to participate in research projects of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Because I believe that the multidisciplinary economic research we are doing is at the same level as theirs, leading in the world.
I hope that through such dialogue, scholars from all over the world can strengthen exchanges and dispel misunderstandings to ensure that actions due to miscalculations are avoided, thank you.
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Established on January 19, 2013, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University of China (Renmin University Chongyang) is the main funding project donated by Chongyang Investment to Chinese University and set up an education fund for operation.
As a new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics, Chongyang has hired dozens of former politicians, bankers, and well-known scholars from around the world as senior researchers, aiming to pay attention to reality, advise the country, and serve the people. At present, the Chongyang National People's Congress has 7 departments and 4 operation and management centers (the Center for Ecological Finance, the Center for Global Governance, the Center for China-US People-to-People Exchange, and the China-Russia Center for People-to-People Exchange). In recent years, the Chongyang National People's Congress has been highly recognized at home and abroad in the fields of financial development, global governance, major-country relations, and macroeconomic policy.