21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Shuying intern Yang Jingyi reported in Shenzhen
Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the two core cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, are ushering in a tide of supply in the real estate market.
According to Kerry's data, due to the increase in supply and the decrease in transactions, the supply-demand ratio of new houses in Guangzhou has continued to rise in recent months, rising to 3.1 to 1 in September, driving the city's first-hand residential saleable inventory to exceed 11.46 million square meters, and the deindustrialization cycle has risen from the lowest 7.9 months in the middle of the year to the current 10.6 months.
In the context of the supply of residential land in shenzhen in the past two years, the residential supply has also continued to rise. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in September 2021, the total new supply in Shenzhen exceeded 16,000 units, an increase of 175.8% month-on-month, an increase of 40.5% year-on-year; the residential supply exceeded 12,000 units, an increase of 152.9% month-on-month and 63.4% year-on-year.
In contrast, this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is of average color. In September 2021, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased year-on-year, with an overall year-on-year decline of 36% and a month-on-month decline of 23%, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen each fell by 35%. In this context, housing enterprises have to win the favor of home buyers through the "price for volume" method. However, from the current transaction data, the sales surface of Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not made much progress, and the first-hand houses have shown an uneven phenomenon of hot and cold in the case of multi-plate housing purchase discounts; while the second-hand houses continue to turn cold, and it is difficult to change the low temperature status quo.
First-hand house promotions are frequent
At the time when the property market was hot, almost the whole city of Shenzhen was a "daily disc", but in the current situation, some locations and general product projects had to open the promotion mode.
According to the Times Weekly, on September 29, 2021, Shenzhen Longhua District Langting Shenghui City opened, the same day launched a 90% discount to buy a house activity; on October 3, Longgang District Kaisa Yiduhui launched a 15% discount house purchase activity, the price reduction of up to 750,000 yuan, the average price of about 19,000 yuan / square meter.
With the efforts of housing enterprises, the transaction performance of Shenzhen Golden Week was positive. According to data from the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, during this year's National Day holiday, 1,081 sets of new houses were sold in Shenzhen, up 163% over the same period.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "Developers are more sensitive to the market, so they have carried out price reduction promotions for first-hand houses, and at the same time, the location of the new push plate during the 'Eleventh' period is better, the developer's pricing is reasonable, and the transaction volume will increase in the case of still certain demand in the market." ”
While Shenzhen housing enterprises strive to promote, Guangzhou housing enterprises have not lost. In some areas where transactions are flat, promotional actions are also frequent. For example, Guangzhou Zengcheng District era masterpieces launched a 9.7% discount during the National Day, the total price was reduced by 100,000 discounts; Jinke Jimei Yufeng in Nansha District also launched some special rooms. In addition, in order to increase the transaction volume, individual real estate in Nansha and other areas also gives buyers a 3-month down payment period.
According to data from the Research and Development Department of Guangzhou Zhongyuan, the actual opening of 4,049 sets of first-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou during the "Eleventh" holiday, an increase of 16.9% over the same period last year, but the transaction data in Guangzhou is slightly inferior to that of Shenzhen. Kerry's statistics show that during the "Eleventh" period this year, Guangzhou's first-hand residential network signed 711 sets, down 33.1% from last year's Golden Week's 1,062 sets, and the transaction area was 65,700 square meters, down 45% year-on-year. According to the Central Plains Development Department in Guangzhou, the average deindustrialization rate of outer suburbs such as Nansha and Zengcheng is less than 50%.
Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst of kerui Guangfo region, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "Under the cumulative effect and fermentation of regulatory policies, the national commercial housing market has turned into a cooling cycle from the second half of the year, and the demand for enterprises to recover cash flow at the end of the year is getting bigger and bigger, so Jinjiuyinshi has become a key marketing node for developers to grab revenue." ”
Competing for price reduction promotions, which is related to the overall environment.
Song Ding, deputy director of the China Urban Economic Expert Committee, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "Since the beginning of this year, many real estate head enterprises have experienced debt crises, under the pressure of the 'three red lines', in order to avoid the break of the capital chain, so through price reduction promotion to accelerate the return of funds, to avoid the break of the capital chain." ”
Li Yujia pointed out, "At present, bank loans are tight, resulting in great pressure on developers to collect money. At the same time, due to the large risk of the capital chain of some housing enterprises, they take the lead in promotion and drive the large-scale price reduction promotion of housing enterprises. ”
The second-hand house fell into the ice cave
Different from the uneven heating and cold of first-hand houses, the transaction situation of second-hand houses can better reflect the power of policy.
According to data from the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, only 4 sets of second-hand houses in Shenzhen were sold during the National Day, totaling 351.22 square meters, setting a new low for many years. According to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediaries Association, from September 27 to October 3, the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Shenzhen was 303 sets, which fell for 5 consecutive weeks, down 18.5% month-on-month.
In fact, second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen have been declining in recent months. According to the data of Tongdong to find a house, in September 2021, 1765 sets of second-hand houses were traded in Shenzhen, a decrease of 13.6% month-on-month; The transaction area 169252 square meters, a decrease of 13.4% from the previous quarter.
Although Guangzhou does not have specific transaction data for the Golden Week, since the introduction of the second-hand housing guidance price, the second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou have also continued to be sluggish. According to the statistics of Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediaries Association, in the third quarter of 2021, the number and area of second-hand residential network signatures promoted by intermediaries in Guangzhou (including Zengcheng and Conghua) were 5761 cases and 535,000 square meters, respectively, down 29.86% and 29.61% respectively.
Song Ding analyzed that "Guangdong and Shenzhen have implemented the second-hand housing reference price policy, which has caused a gap between the listing price of second-hand houses and the policy price, resulting in a significant increase in the down payment and the fall of second-hand houses into the ice cave." Although the first-hand house is also regulated, due to the policy conditions are still better than the second-hand house, the demand for the original purchase of the second-hand house is transferred to the first-hand house, so that the transaction situation of the first-hand house is significantly better than that of the second-hand house. ”
Li Yujia believes that there are two reasons for the poor transaction volume of second-hand houses. "First, the price reduction of second-hand housing owners is not strong; second, second, second-hand housing loans are stricter than first-hand houses, and some banks even stop lending second-hand houses." Banks are more willing to provide new home loans, and second-hand home loans will not bring deposits to banks and will also consume the bank's real estate loan line, which will lead to more tension in second-hand home loans. ”
Against this backdrop, second-hand homes don't seem to see signs of a possible pick-up.
Xiao Wenxiao pointed out, "At present, there are more unfavorable factors that plague second-hand housing transactions, in addition to the transaction reference price, there are also mortgage tensions, first-hand housing promotion diversion, etc. If there is no big policy benefit, it is difficult to get rid of the downturn in the short term." ”
Song Ding also analyzed that the second-hand housing market in the fourth quarter will still be at a low level, but it will relax slightly.
"First of all, the policy regulation has lasted for eight or nine months, the demand for housing has accumulated for a long time, and the housing problem of home buyers has yet to be solved." Secondly, second-hand house owners have also begun to relax, and there is a lot of room for negotiation. Finally, interest rates in some cities have also begun to fall, indicating that the policy has been slightly loosened. Multiple layers stack up, and the fourth quarter is likely to ease up slightly. But the cooling of the second-hand housing market is a big trend, and it is difficult to reverse. Unless there are major policy changes, the second-hand housing market will still be in an overall cold state. Song Ding continued.
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