Montenegro VS Wales
Cup: 2024-2025 UEFA Nations League Venue: Podgorica City Stadium Weather: Cloudy Temperature: 23°C~24°C
Montenegro (home team) has 25 players, the whole team is worth €25.2m, the average age is 28.6 years, and the FIFA world ranking: 73rd.
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 13 goals scored in the last 10 games, 16 goals conceded, goal difference -3.
Home results: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses
Personnel status: (central defender) Igor · Vujasic, (central defender) Savic Injured and unable to play.
Montenegro veteran Jovetic has been named in the squad and has scored 36 goals in 79 appearances for the Montenegro national team, both of which are top of the team, and his experience will help the team.
Montenegro has a number of players who play in mainstream European leagues such as Marusic and Kelstovic in the current squad, and the team attaches more importance to this UEFA Nations League match.
Team Spirit: Montenegro lost 2-0 away to Iceland in their last game, and this game is back at home, and they must defend their home honor.
Team update: Montenegro lost 2-0 to Iceland in their last game and have lost their last three matches, and the team's form is worrying.
Montenegro have scored just one goal in their last three games, and the team's attacking firepower is weak.
Montenegro have conceded 7 goals in their last 3 games, and the team's defensive performance is rather sluggish.
Montenegro is currently ranked 73rd in the world rankings, at a significant disadvantage compared to Wilby.
Team Montenegro
Wales (away) has 24 players, the team is worth €161.05m, the average age is 25.9 years, and it is ranked 30th in the FIFA world rankings.
Record in the last 6 games: 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss, 14 goals scored in the last 10 games, 8 goals conceded, and 6 goal difference.
Away results: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 loss(es).
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Wales' current squad is based on players who have played in the Premier League and the Championship, including Harry· Wilson, Ben · Davies and many other players who have played in the Premier League for many years.
Team spirit: Wales drew at home to Turkey in their last game and will be looking to take all three points from their opponents when they play away to Montenegro, the weakest team.
Team update: Wales have kept three clean sheets in their last four games and have been solid defensively.
Wales are currently ranked 30th in the world, which is quite clear compared to Montenegro.
Wales drew 0-0 with Turkey in their last game and have only drawn three and lost one of their last four matches, with the team's form not good.
Wales have failed to score in their last four games and the team's attacking performance has been very poor.
Recent historical meetings between the two teams: The two teams have met 3 times in history, and Montenegro has a slight upper hand with 2 wins and 1 loss.
In terms of the same handicap: the initial handicap: the home team draws, the home team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win, win, lose, and the away team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: go go win or lose.
Wales
Pre-Match Briefing:
Wales will travel to Montenegro for this UEFA Nations League fixture. Both teams are yet to win their first game in this group, along with Iceland and Turkey.
Wales drew a goalless draw against Turkey in their opening game under new manager Craig · Bellamy. After this game, they will head to group leaders Iceland in hopes of bringing back some points.
They are currently second in the standings, ahead of Turkey only because of fewer discipline points. Maintaining second place will see them enter the promotion play-offs. And in the last Nations League, Wales were relegated from the A-League.
Wales' biggest problem at the moment is their lack of attacking weakness, failing to score in their last four matches, even against Gibraltar. This also led to a change of manager, although their performance against Turkey on Friday was encouraging.
Montenegro started the competition from the third tier of the Nations League and were promoted to the B League in the 2020-21 season. In the 2022-23 B-League season, they won two of their six matches but lost 2-0 to Iceland in the opening game of this tournament.
It was Montenegro's third consecutive defeat after suffering defeats in Belgium and at home to Georgia. Before being beaten by Georgia, they had won four in a row at home, albeit against weaker teams such as Lebanon and Lithuania.
Four of their last five matches have seen fewer than 2.5 goals scored in total. We are confident that that statistic will be repeated in this game.
Montenegro are likely to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation with Milan· Mijatovic, Marko· Vukčevic, Marko · Tuci, Slobodan· Rubezic, Risto· Radunovic, Novica· Erakovic, Milos · Brnovic, Adam · Marusic, Vladimir · Jovovic, Milutin· Osmajic and Nikolai · Krstovich.
Wales are likely to adopt a 4-3-3 formation with Danny · Ward, Connor· Roberts, Joe · Roden, Ben · Davis, Neco· Williams, Harry· Wilson, Ethan· Ampadu, Jordan· James, Brennan· Johnson, Aaron· Ramsey and Solba· Thomas.
Wales
1. Strength analysis
- Montenegro: In the last 10 games, 13 goals have been scored and 16 goals conceded, and the goal difference is -3.
- Wales: In the last 10 games, 14 goals were scored and 8 goals conceded, with a goal difference of +6.
- Wales have a 0.9 goal advantage in the absolute theoretical world.
2. State analysis
- Montenegro last 6 games: 2 wins, 4 losses, score 6 points.
- Wales last 6 games: 1 win(s), 4 draws, 1 loss(es), score 7 points.
- The difference between the two teams' form scores is 1 point, which is in the range of 0-3 points, indicating that the two teams have been in close form recently.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Montenegro: Lost 0-2 to Iceland in the last game, this game is playing at home, with a strong will to defend the home.
- Wales: In the last 0-0 draw with Turkey, Wales had a chance to take all three points against a weaker Montenegro.
- Both sides have a strong fighting spirit and need to continue to differentiate their strengths by strength and form.
4. Asian Indices
- Initial handicap: Montenegro let tie, the water level is 0.86 for the home team and 0.98 for the away team.
- Tick: Montenegro draw/hemisphere, water level 1.07 for home, 0.85 for away.
- The change from initial to instant shows that institutions are gradually inclined towards an increase in the likelihood of Wales winning or unbeaten, especially since most institutions have adjusted from a draw to a handicap draw/hemisphere, indicating that the market's expectations for Wales are increasing.
- The water level has risen for the home team Montenegro and the water level for the away team Wales has fallen, further indicating that market confidence is tilting in the direction of Wales. Wales have been relatively solid defensively despite their lackluster attacking performance in recent games, while Montenegro have been in poor form of late, and their defensive problems are more prominent.
5. Institutional Bottom Line
- 胜：3.10 / 3.60 ≈ 0.861
- Draw: 3.10 / 2.95 ≈ 1.051
- 负：2.30 / 1.96 ≈ 1.173
- The values are all within the institutional baseline of 1.2, but the away win value is higher, and the home win value is the lowest, which is more advantageous.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- Judging from the data from the initial to the immediate market, the market's confidence in Wales is gradually increasing, while the expectation of a home win for Montenegro continues to weaken. In particular, the downward adjustment of the away win level and the change in the index clearly indicate that the market expects Wales to outperform the home team Montenegro on the road.
- The index of home wins is gradually rising, while the index of away wins is decreasing, indicating that the selection risk of away wins is low and the market's expectations for away wins are very high.
Win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- The main winning side of the buyer's pending orders are mainly at the price of 3.60, and the volume is relatively small, indicating that although Montenegro has a home advantage, the market does not give it much confidence. More buyers transact, indicating that buyers in the market are more willing to buy Montenegro's home win, but due to the lower overall transaction volume, it indicates that the home win is undervalued by the market. The price of the buyer and seller in the main winning direction is relatively stable, and the trading volume is limited. In particular, there are a lot of pending orders at the price of 3.60, indicating that buyers in the market expect that Montenegro's home stadium may have a certain winning rate, but the strength of buyers' funds is not large.
- The away win transaction in Wales is in the range of 2.26-2.36, and the market volume is large. Both the buyer's and seller's listings were more active, especially at the low price of 2.26, where the volume was high. This shows that the market is more optimistic about Wales away wins, and there are many funds willing to buy Wales away wins.
- The data of buyers and sellers of the draw is very balanced, and the buyers are actively trading between 3.25 and 3.35, especially the 3.30 and 3.35 levels have the largest volume, indicating that the market is optimistic about the draw. This is consistent with the fact that a large amount of money in the market is flowing into the direction of the draw.
- Through a comprehensive analysis of trading volume, buy-side and sell-side data and listings, the market is more inclined to the direction of Wales unbeaten, especially away wins and draws. Although Montenegro has a home advantage, the market money does not rush to the home win, which indicates that the market has less confidence in Montenegro's victory.
- The volume of the draw direction is the largest, and the buyers and sellers in the market are trading positively, especially at the price level of 3.30-3.35, indicating that the market expects the two sides to be evenly matched, and the game may end in a draw.
Final lottery prediction suggestion: away win 0 to 1 0 to 0
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.