When presiding over the first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that high-quality population development should support Chinese-style modernization. The Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") deliberated and adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") puts forward the requirements to improve the population development strategy with a focus on coping with aging and declining birthrate, improve the population service system covering the whole population and the whole life cycle, and promote high-quality population development. The macro goal of improving the population development strategy is to develop the population with a higher overall quality of the population, a moderate fertility level and population size, excellent quality, abundant total quantity, optimized structure, and reasonable distribution of modern human resources.
Balanced population development and high-quality population development
As the development of the Chinese population enters the new normal, the demographic environment and conditions facing the promotion of Chinese-style modernization have undergone profound changes. The trend characteristics of population development, such as declining birthrate, aging, and regional population increase and decrease, are various manifestations of uneven population development. From the data of 1982, 2012 and 2023, we can observe the change trend of the proportion of the population of different age groups: first, the proportion of children aged 0-14 continued to decline, which was 33.6%, 16.5% and 16.3% respectively in these three years; Second, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-64 experienced an inverted U-shaped trajectory of rising first, reaching a peak and then declining rapidly after crossing the turning point, which were 61.5%, 74.1% and 68.3% respectively in these three years. Third, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above (aging rate) continued to increase, with 4.9%, 9.4% and 15.4% respectively in these three years.
The population pattern of different regions shows obvious differences, which is closely related to the performance of economic and social development. In 2022, the population differentiation among the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in Chinese mainland is very significant, with the natural population growth rate ranging from 8.8‰ to -5.8‰, and the aging rate ranging from 20.0% to 5.9%. Population growth rate and ageing are both the result of demographic transition and the manifestation of demographic patterns, and they are closely related. There is a correlation coefficient of -0.883 between the natural population growth rate and the aging rate of each provincial-level unit in China. At the same time, the population pattern also has a mutual influence and causal relationship with economic development, and the correlation coefficient between the natural population growth rate and the economic growth rate is as high as 0.889.
Promoting balanced population development is not only an important goal and main content of high-quality population development, but also a prerequisite for achieving this goal. There is a progressive relationship between the two requirements of balanced population development and high-quality population development, and the relationship between the two can be understood from two perspectives. First, the new normal of population development and its challenges are most directly manifested in a series of uneven results and unsustainable factors of population development, including fertility level, age structure, quantity and quality, regional pattern, and the relationship between population and economic and social development level. Second, the quality of population development is precisely conceived in these aspects, and the means and goals of promoting balanced population development and achieving high-quality population development are highly consistent. Policy efforts aimed at promoting balanced population development, including promoting the formation of an appropriate fertility level to stabilize the population size, forming an economically and socially reasonable regional distribution of the population, cultivating modern human resources that are compatible with scientific and technological progress and changes in the industrial structure, and continuously improving the quality of people's lives, are the only ways to solve the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development, achieve high-quality population development, and support the goal of Chinese-style modernization.
Improve the focus and force of the population development strategy
The actual pattern of population is formed historically, and the demographic characteristics of each period are determined by the demographic changes of the past, and the current situation of the population can be said to be the "echo" of the demographic changes of the past. China's population peak occurred in the 60s of the 20th century, and in the process of recovering from the negative population growth in 1960, the natural population growth rate was above 20‰ from 1962 to 1973. This was followed by a population echo corresponding to this baby boom. In the first wave, in the 60s and 70s of the twentieth century, the number and proportion of the child population increased very rapidly, and it was not until the 80s that it slowed down. In the second wave, during the period from 1980 to 2010, the number and proportion of the young working-age population increased very rapidly, forming a favorable demographic structure of "many people who live and few people who eat", which provided a special source of rapid economic growth during this period - demographic dividend. In the third wave, after 30-40 years, the number of working-age population experienced a period of negative growth, and the growth and proportion of the elderly population tended to accelerate significantly. It is precisely with this population echo effect as a reference that the "Decision" makes important arrangements to deal with the aging population and the declining birthrate, especially emphasizing the focus and force of improving the population development strategy from the following aspects.
Improve the policy system and incentive mechanism for childbirth, and promote the construction of a childbirth-friendly society. Keeping the total fertility rate at the replacement level of 2.1 is not only a social goal to maintain sustainable population development, but also the number of children that families can expect under ideal conditions. The return from very low fertility to this level is constrained by a range of economic and social factors. There is little international precedent for the fertility rate to rise to replacement level after a long period of low levels. Promoting fertility as close as possible in this direction, for example at the level envisaged in the National Population Development Plan (2016-2030) issued by the State Council in 2016, that is, a total fertility rate of 1.8 by 2030, should be a policy goal and guide families to respond with action. Efforts to achieve this goal require the government to promote the formation of a system and improve mechanisms, significantly increase policy support and incentives, and promote the recovery of total fertility to a more sustainable level through the compatibility and joint efforts of family and social incentives.
Focus on the whole life cycle to improve the overall quality of the population, and cultivate and give full play to the new demographic dividend. The demographic dividend, which supports China's rapid economic growth, arises in practice in a special period of demographic transition, that is, the working-age population grows faster than the population of other ages, forming a pattern of low and declining population dependency ratio. The traditional demographic dividend is linked to specific demographic characteristics, and once this age structure no longer exists, the growth momentum supported by the traditional demographic dividend will be weakened. This does not mean that the broad demographic dividend disappears, or that economic growth loses momentum. On the premise of changing the paradigm of understanding, we should redefine and focus on cultivating the demographic dividend, that is, by promoting early childhood development, realizing the integration of childcare, extending compulsory education and national education, encouraging lifelong learning and vocational training, etc., to improve the comprehensive quality of the population of all age groups, and have every opportunity to form a new demographic dividend and provide support for economic growth in a reasonable range. At the same time, on the condition of improving the employment promotion mechanism, efforts should be made to solve the structural contradictions in employment, so that a higher level of human resources can be fully utilized and effectively allocated.
Improve the policy mechanism to promote the development of the pension industry and the pension industry. China's per capita GDP will reach $12,614 in 2023 and reach $24,000 by 2035. In the process of basically realizing modernization, China will always be accompanied by the characteristics of growing old before getting rich. It is an important goal to improve the population development strategy to realize that the elderly have something to do, do something, and enjoy the elderly, which not only significantly improves the well-being of the elderly, but also gives full play to the huge human resources and consumption power of the elderly.
The first is to improve the coverage and equalization level of basic pension insurance and services, and ensure that the improvement of the quality of life of the elderly is synchronized with the modernization process. The second is to create conditions to enhance the employment willingness and employability of older workers, improve the level of participation of the elderly in economic and social activities, create diversified and personalized jobs and forms of social activities for the willing elderly groups, and expand and extend the demographic dividend. The third is to promote the development of the silver economy, meet the special consumption needs of the aging society, and give full play to their positive functions as consumers on the premise of eliminating the worries of the elderly.
Make good use of the window period for promoting Chinese-style modernization
The new normal of population development brings both serious challenges and new opportunities, which must be firmly grasped. Between now and 2035, it is a window of opportunity that should not be ignored for the relationship between the Chinese population and economic and social development.
On the one hand, China's economy still has the potential to maintain a reasonable growth rate. According to projections of potential growth, China's economy can grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% until 2035. Whether it is the stage of economic development represented by GDP per capita or the stage of demographic transition represented by the aging rate, few other countries have been able to achieve such a growth rate at the same stage. The economic aggregate can continue to expand at a relatively rapid rate, ensuring that China's investment growth is sufficient to support the accelerated development of human capital and the continuous improvement of sustainable growth capacity. This is sufficient to ensure that sufficient resources are available to support the implementation of population development strategies to cope with declining birthrates and ageing. On the other hand, the decrease in the number of births and the proportion of children has led to a decline in the dependency ratio of children. By 2035, both children under the age of 17 and children under the age of 6 will be reduced at an average rate of 3% per year, implying a significant reduction in resource constraints to extend the length of compulsory education. The coexistence of economic growth and declining child numbers suggests that the stock of the previous labour force, human capital, material base and innovation capacity will continue to be unleashed, and the level of security for nurturing and enhancing the increment of these development factors is also increasing. This is a rare opportunity to improve the population development strategy, and it is also a favorable window period to promote Chinese-style modernization.
This window period is of great significance for improving the population development strategy. By improving the population development support and service system, it is necessary to significantly expand the investment of resources to cope with the aging population and the declining birthrate. The core of the window period is that it is a period of development in which the burden tends to be reduced and resources are relatively abundant. International experience shows that at the stage of development in which China is currently located, the boundaries of public goods have been significantly expanded, social security and welfare spending has shown a significant increase, and the government is generally inclined to provide more basic public services and assume more responsibility for spending. The embodiment of this general trend in China is highly consistent with the requirements and practices of improving the population development strategy, and will go through roughly the same path to achieve it. In terms of time, this window of opportunity is neither eternal nor will it continue for a long time, we must clearly understand, firmly grasp and make full use of this favorable window period, focus on "one old and one young", while coping with the challenges of declining birthrate and aging, adapt to the requirements of the stage of economic and social development, and establish and improve the basic public service supply system covering the whole population and the whole life cycle.
Promote the development and reform of education, and significantly increase the number of years of education per capita. The period of rapid growth in which China reaped the demographic dividend benefited from the two great leaps in education: the universal nine-year compulsory education and the expansion of enrollment in colleges and universities. Cultivating a new demographic dividend also requires an educational leap of the same magnitude and effect. The corresponding reforms focus on extending the length of education on the one hand, and on the fuller investment and more equal allocation of educational resources on the other, so that people of all ages in urban and rural areas can have access to better quality education in the form of basic public services. It is necessary to pay special attention to such guarantee mechanisms as pre-school education and the education of the children of migrant workers, and gradually expand the scope of free education with emphasis on the compulsory education stage.
Improve the level of security, inclusiveness and equalization of basic old-age care in urban and rural areas, and improve the well-being of all the elderly. After development from scratch and from small to large, China has built the world's largest social pension security system. The focus of improving the effectiveness of this system lies in making up for the shortcomings and deficiencies of the existing system and mechanism, and narrowing or even eliminating the gaps in the existing coverage level and the gap in the level of security through reform. In particular, it is necessary to focus on increasing the degree of equalization between urban and rural areas and between regions. At the same time, we should enhance the integration and complementarity of various social security, social assistance, and social welfare programs, and form a more complete, unified, and inclusive basic public service supply system. Stable and good expectations should be formed from the whole life cycle, and the willingness to have children, the sense of gain of the elderly population and the well-being of the people's livelihood should be improved simultaneously.
(The author is the chief expert of the national high-end think tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)