——Interview with Zhou Xinyue, senior analyst of CCID Consulting Automobile Industry Research Center
Text / Modern Logistics News all-media reporter Wang Wei
In the critical period of the global automotive industry's transformation to electrification and intelligence, the vigorous development of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles has become a hot topic in the industry. The reporter of Modern Logistics News interviewed Zhou Xinyue, a senior analyst of CCID Consulting Automobile Industry Research Center, who shared his insights on the current status of the new energy vehicle market, the innovation breakthrough of power battery technology, the technological progress of intelligent networked vehicles, and the challenges and opportunities faced by the integration of vehicles, roads and clouds. It not only reflects the future trend of the industry, but also provides important strategic guidance for enterprises and entrepreneurs. It provides us with valuable industry insights and highlights the importance of how to better capitalize on future mobility opportunities in the midst of technological innovation.
Reporter: How do you view the current development status of the new energy vehicle market? What is the size of the market and growth potential? In the diversification of new energy vehicles (such as pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, etc.), which direction do you think is the focus of future development?
Zhou Xinyue: In 2023, the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 13 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, and the market share will be 16%, of which pure electric vehicles will account for 11%. In 2024, the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 18 million, and the market share will be close to 20%. In 2023, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 9.495 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, with a market share of 31.6%. From January to June 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales have reached 4.944 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and the market share has reached 35.2%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 2.966 million, accounting for 62%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 1.978 million units, accounting for 38%. In 2024, the annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 12 million, with a market share of more than 40%. On the whole, the scale of the new energy vehicle market still has great growth potential.
The many advantages of pure electric new energy vehicles make it occupy the majority of the new energy vehicle market, but in scenarios such as long-distance travel and inconvenient charging, hybrid technology still has its unique advantages. With the further breakthrough and improvement of power battery technology and charging and swapping infrastructure, the advantages of pure electric new energy vehicles, as the key direction of future development, will become more prominent.
Reporter: What is the impact of the progress of power battery technology on the development of new energy vehicles? Can you talk about what technological innovations are trending right now? What do you think is the position of the continent's development in the field of power batteries compared with the international advanced level? What are the challenges that may lie ahead?
Zhou Xinyue: The rapid development of battery technology is the key to a breakthrough in new energy vehicles. With the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the consumer market has put forward higher requirements for battery performance and safety of use. Solid-state batteries have become one of the key technical routes due to their higher system energy density, smaller size, and higher safety of use. The energy density of sodium-ion batteries is also improving, and the energy density of sodium-ion batteries released by some manufacturers is close to the level of lithium batteries, and at the same time has advantages in safety and low-temperature performance. Lithium-sulfur batteries have become a hot topic of research due to their potential high energy density, and although they are not yet commercially available on a large scale, laboratory research has made progress.
Continental has made certain achievements in the development of power batteries, ranking first in the world in terms of production, sales and consumption, and the number of core technologies and patent layout are also increasing rapidly. But we also need to face up to the challenges. In 2023, more than 70% of China's power battery market share will be occupied by the top two companies, and the competition and differentiation of enterprises will be further intensified. In 2022, the average capacity utilization rate in the power battery field exceeded 75%, and this data will drop to less than 65% in 2023. It is estimated that by 2025, the production capacity demand of China's power battery will be about 1000GWh, and the current production capacity of the industry has reached 4800GWh. However, whether Chinese companies can maintain the same supply chain and cost advantages in overseas markets as they do in the Chinese market, as well as how to deal with trade barriers and carbon footprint requirements, will be challenges.
Reporter: What is the technical status of intelligent networked vehicles? What do you think is the current level of technology maturity? Which technologies are the most transformative? In terms of vehicle-road-cloud integration, you can share some ongoing success stories or practices.
Zhou Xinyue: Autonomous driving technology is the core of intelligent networked vehicles, and its development relies on breakthroughs in a number of cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence, computer vision, lidar, millimeter-wave radar, high-precision maps, and positioning technology. After ten years of development, the mainland's intelligent networked vehicles have made great progress in terms of technical level and industrial development, and have gradually developed from a comprehensive backwardness and catch-up situation to a situation of running side by side with Germany, the United States, Japan and other automobile powers, and leading in some fields. At present, China's intelligent networked vehicles have made significant progress in vehicle integration, key technology research and development, and industrialization, and the key technologies and the industrialization rhythm of intelligent networked vehicles have maintained synergy.
Through the networked cloud control system, combined with vehicle-end equipment, roadside perception, low-latency network, high-precision maps and cloud data, the Beijing high-level autonomous driving technology and management key links are opened up to achieve collaborative perception, decision-making and control, and form a Beijing plan for high-level autonomous driving. After two years of construction, the demonstration area has completed the transformation of 329 intersections of intelligent network standards, 750 kilometers of two-way urban roads and 10 kilometers of highways in the region have realized the functional coverage of vehicle-road-cloud integration, the networked cloud control system has realized the integration of vehicle-road data, the ultra-high-speed wireless communication technology EUHT private network supporting vehicle-network integration has been laid, and the decimeter-level high-precision dynamic map platform has been built. Vehicle-road coordination has reduced the risk of collision per 10,000 kilometers by 23%, traffic light push reach has exceeded 27,000 times per week, the key decision-making rate of vehicles involved in roadside blind spot obstacle information has reached 37%, and the average vehicle delay rate and vehicle queuing length have been reduced by 30% through traffic signal control optimization, and the city-level engineering test platform has begun to take shape.
Since the official launch of the construction of the Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Zone in 2023, Ordos, Inner Mongolia, has given full play to the advantages of green power energy, and actively promoted the integrated construction of vehicle deployment, cloud control platform and roadside facilities in accordance with the "China Solution" technical architecture of vehicle-road-cloud collaborative control, decision-making perception, and the core concept of "basic sharing, hierarchical decoupling, and cross-domain sharing" of the cloud control system. In response to the huge market demand for local cargo transportation, Ordos has carried out a differentiated layout for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration", created urban comprehensive service scenarios such as self-driving buses, self-driving taxis, and low-speed unmanned vehicles in urban built-up areas, and created high-level autonomous driving cargo transportation + unmanned mining truck short-dumping transportation scenarios in high-speed roads, branch roads, industrial parks, factories and mines, with a cumulative test mileage of more than 6 million kilometers and more than 30,000 people served. On July 3, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Transport jointly announced the list of pilot cities for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent networked vehicles, and Ordos was successfully selected, the only city selected in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Reporter: What do you think is the key role of vehicle-road-cloud integration in promoting the development of intelligent networked vehicles? What are the main technical, policy, or market challenges faced in the process of building vehicle-road-cloud integration?
Zhou Xinyue: At present, intelligent networked vehicles at home and abroad mainly use the intelligent technology route of single vehicles, and there are limits to the perception ability of each vehicle, which cannot achieve "over-the-horizon", and there will be "blind spots" in extreme weather or other obstructed situations. When the car is driving on the road, the real-time perception information obtained by the roadside infrastructure will be transmitted to the cloud, and then the cloud will cooperate with the vehicle for analysis, decision-making and control, so as to improve the vehicle's perception ability, traffic guidance and decision-making ability, so as to improve the level and dimension of autonomous driving. In the case of multiple regional connectivity, this data can be used to enhance a region-level traffic situational awareness, which can make the original traffic management more intelligent.
There are also many challenges in the process of building vehicle-road-cloud integration. First of all, the procurement, installation and maintenance of drive test facilities such as sensors, communication equipment, and other high-tech hardware require huge capital investment, and insufficient funds can become a major obstacle to the promotion of vehicle-road-cloud integration. Secondly, the unification of technical standards is one of the main technical challenges, because the integration of vehicle, road and cloud requires seamless collaboration between multiple systems, and the lack of unified technical standards may lead to incompatibility between various systems, affecting the promotion and application of technology.
Reporter: Smart travel is becoming an important development trend, how do you think the future of travel will change? In terms of innovation in smart mobility and mobility services, which companies or projects do you see worth paying attention to?
Zhou Xinyue: With the development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, future travel services will be more personalized and customized, intelligent recommendation systems based on user behavior and preferences can provide users with the most suitable travel solutions, and customized bus and travel reservation services can also meet the needs of specific user groups.
With the spread of autonomous vehicles, the concept of mobility-as-a-service will also become concrete, and the number of private cars and the total number of cars are expected to be significantly reduced, thereby reducing emissions and promoting environmental protection. The intelligent cockpit has transformed the car from a simple means of travel to a mobile living space. In the car, people can enjoy entertainment, work, and even food and beverage services, and traveling by car will become more comfortable and convenient.
Reporter: With the progress of science and technology, what do you expect the main forms of transportation to be in the future? What advice do you have for companies and entrepreneurs who are focusing on new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles to help them better grasp the opportunities in the industry?
Zhou Xinyue: With the advancement of vehicle-road-cloud integration, the future form of transportation will be more information-based, intelligent and green. First, self-driving cars will be widely used in the future. Through deep integration with road infrastructure and cloud computing platforms, autonomous vehicles can achieve safer and more efficient driving, which will greatly change the way people travel, reduce traffic accidents, and improve road efficiency. Secondly, the traffic management system will also change dramatically. By collecting and analyzing traffic data in real time, intelligent traffic management systems can effectively guide and manage urban traffic flows, alleviate traffic congestion, and improve traffic efficiency. At the same time, the application of vehicle-road-cloud integration technology will also promote the construction of multi-modal transportation network. Under the unified architecture, including autonomous vehicles, public transportation, non-motorized vehicles, and other travel modes, the seamless connection of various travel modes is realized through the unified scheduling and management of the cloud computing platform, providing people with more convenient and flexible travel options. Finally, the overall improvement and optimization of travel patterns will greatly reduce energy consumption, reduce the environmental impact of transportation, and help achieve the sustainable development of the transportation system.