Before reading this article, I sincerely invite you to click the "Follow" button, so that you can continue to push such articles in the future, and it is also convenient for you to discuss and share, your support is the driving force for us to insist on creating~
Disclaimer: The content of this article is written with authoritative information combined with personal opinions, and the source of the literature and screenshots have been marked at the end of the article, please be aware.
Today, when the global situation is becoming increasingly complex, United States think tanks frequently release reports on China's military movements, which has triggered widespread discussion and concern.
Recently, the RAND think tank released a report claiming that China is preparing for a possible future war.
So, is China really preparing for war, as United States think tanks say? What kind of calculations are United States think tanks using to hype China in this way?
United States think tanks hype up China's preparations for war
In mid-June, the RAND think tank released a high-profile report claiming that China was preparing for a possible war, which immediately attracted the attention of all parties.
The report claims that China carried out a reform of the national defense mobilization system in 2022, decentralizing mobilization functions to municipal units and setting up national defense mobilization offices across the country.
These Chinese actions are, in the eyes of the RAND think tank, evidence of preparations for future war.
In addition, the report highlights China's large reserves in strategic resources such as oil, gas, grain and rare metals.
United States think tanks believe that these reserves are China's preparations for this future war in order to recover Taiwan.
In fact, this is not the first time that United States think tanks have hyped up China, which has repeatedly released similar reports over the past few years in an attempt to portray China as an aggressive military power.
The RAND think tank has released a report saying that China's cyber warfare capabilities pose a major threat to United States and could launch attacks on United States critical infrastructure.
However, these allegations are based on limited information and speculation and lack of substantial evidence, and as a result, these reports have raised widespread concerns about cybersecurity in the United States and driven an increase in the budget.
On the South China Sea issue, the RAND think tank has repeatedly released reports, saying that China's construction of islands and reefs and military deployment in the South China Sea threaten regional stability.
While China has repeatedly stated that its activities in the South China Sea are primarily aimed at asserting sovereignty and guaranteeing freedom of navigation, reports from the RAND think tank tend to ignore these statements, portraying China's actions as a prelude to a military confrontation in the South China Sea.
United States think tanks have not hyped China once or twice, but what the RAND think tank said this time is conclusive, so is China really actively preparing for war as it said?
The contradictions in the RAND think tank's hype of China's war preparedness view
United States think tanks have many contradictions in the hype of China's war preparations, and they cannot justify themselves at all.
On the one hand, the report stresses that China is actively preparing for war, citing examples of the reform of the national defense mobilization system and the reserve of strategic resources.
On the other hand, the report pointed out that China is not ready for a full-scale war with the United States because of the lack of standardized management of national defense mobilization and insufficient human resources.
This contradictory statement not only undermines the credibility of the report, but also calls into question the motives behind it.
Moreover, the RAND think tank said that China has set up national defense mobilization offices across the country, which is a signal that China is preparing for war.
However, these measures do not actually mean that China is preparing for war, but rather that China is setting up to improve the country's overall emergency response capacity and face natural disasters and other emergencies.
For example, during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in 2020, emergency management systems across China played an important role in controlling the epidemic and allocating resources.
The pandemic has highlighted the importance of strengthening local emergency response capacities, which is why China has undertaken this series of reforms.
The RAND think tank report also notes that China has significantly increased its reserves of strategic resources, such as oil, gas, grain and rare metals, over the past few years, believing it to be in preparation for war.
However, a closer analysis reveals that these reserves are more of a response to global economic uncertainty and a country's economic security.
Since 2020, China has significantly increased its oil and gas reserves.
This is mainly to reduce dependence on imported energy and ensure energy security, the instability of the global energy market and the uncertainty of the Sino-US trade war have prompted China to increase its energy reserves.
As for China's grain reserves, it is to cope with the disruption of food supply that may be caused by global climate change and international trade frictions, and to ensure domestic food security.
For example, global food prices soared in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and China's grain reserves effectively eased the pressure on the domestic market.
China's reserve capacity in rare metals, which play an important role in the high-tech industry and defense industry, has also increased significantly to support the development of domestic industries and reduce dependence on foreign supplies.
For example, rare earth metals are widely used in electronics and new energy technologies, and China has increased its rare earth reserves to ensure the stable development of related industries.
Therefore, the report of the RAND think tank is obviously contradictory and misleading, and his prediction of China's preparations for war is untrue, so why do United States think tanks hype China like this? What is it happing with?
United States think tanks hype up the purpose of China's war preparations
In fact, many people have long seen through the reasons why United States think tanks hype China, and his purpose is mainly in three aspects:
First of all, this hype contributes to an increase in the military budget of the United States.
By exaggerating China's military threat, the United States military could request more military spending from Congress to respond to the so-called emergency.
This not only ensures the interests of the military-industrial complex, but also provides the military with more resources and equipment.
Second, these reports help maintain and expand the United States military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
By playing up the Chinese threat, United States can rationalize its military bases and troop deployments in the region, thereby containing China's rise and ensuring its own strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition, hyping up China's military threat can also exert political and diplomatic pressure on China and influence other countries' China policies.
For example, the United States can use these statements to win over its allies and form a joint containment of China.
It can be seen from this that United States think tanks are not concerned about whether China will fight a war at all, but deliberately do so for the sake of their own interests.
Not only United States think tanks, but in March this year, United States Admiral Aquilino also publicly declared that China plans to resolve the Taiwan issue by 2027 and prepare for it, so as to hype up China's war preparations.
In response to these remarks by United States think tanks and officials, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly expressed its opposition and made a strong response.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian pointed out that the Chinese Government has always advocated resolving the Taiwan issue through peaceful means and stressed the peace and stability of cross-strait relations.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned United States for exacerbating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and inciting confrontation by hyping up the "China threat theory."
China also pointed out that the Taiwan issue is originally a matter for the Chinese themselves, has nothing to do with United States, and does not allow other countries to interfere in the Taiwan issue.
In general, United States think tanks and officials hype up China's war preparations primarily to increase military budgets, maintain military presence, exert political pressure and strengthen alliances.
However, these statements often ignore China's actual policies and causes, creating misunderstandings and tensions.
In the face of these hypes, the Chinese Government has made its position clear through diplomatic channels, emphasizing its stance on peaceful reunification and hoping that United States will not make a fuss.
Resources
"The mainland will be ready to attack Taiwan by 2027"? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds! Global Times
【Voice of National Defense Mobilization】Basic Knowledge of National Defense Mobilization Langfang Municipal State Mobilization Office