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Financial Investment News reporter Lin Ke
The market began to fluctuate and fall after hitting a stage high in May, and it found a new low in July, and the overall trend of the market is still weak. For the market in August, the industry generally believes that the market is still in a volatile pattern, and the market still needs an opportunity to cooperate. In terms of opportunities, the continued correction has dealt a significant blow to market confidence, and investors still need to pay attention to position control behind structural opportunities. From the point of view of a number of brokerages, consumption, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronics and other industries are generally optimistic.
Charting: Qingzixiu Guotai Junan Securities: Favorable factors are gradually accumulating
Although the factors affecting the stock market are complex, the current challenges of the stock market operation are mainly in two points. The first is the lack of strong progress on expected issues, such as economics and policies; The second is that the micro trading of A-shares has been blocked, and the willingness to trade and change hands is insufficient.
When the stock market is weak, expectation issues and trading issues are often intertwined and need to be blocked in time. However, it should also be noted that favorable factors are also gradually accumulating, the expansion of the central government and the use of special treasury bonds to expand to the domestic demand side such as equipment renewal and trade-in, the idea is logical, superimposed on the risk release in the mid-reporting season in August and the catalyst of the Golden September and Silver Ten events, and the performance of the transactional theme investment after the interim report season in late August may be better than that in June-July. But the emergence of a large level of equity market bottoms and rallies requires encouraging progress at the level of market expectations and micro transactions, or the sight of cheaper valuations to constitute the conditions for a contrarian layout. During the stock market turmoil phase, wait for the moment to pull the trigger.
Constrained by the lack of expected progress and the blockage of micro trading, the market risk appetite is insufficient. At the same time, A-shares also face structural constraints, with heavyweight stocks not being valued cheaply and small and mid-cap stocks lacking liquidity. The plate has logic on the expensive side, and the cheap one lacks logic. On the whole, the A-share undervalued or over-falling sectors are dominant in the short term, and after the valuation is corrected, the strong style is still in the large-cap value + technology blue chips. CITIC Securities: Market sentiment repair is expected to be repaired
After the important meeting, the "two new" and interest rate cut policies exceeded expectations, and the policy still needs to be strengthened in three aspects to improve confidence in the future; The risk appetite of the global market has declined significantly, but there is little room for follow-up capital outflows from A-shares; There are already two gradual clarities in policy, prices and external signals that will drive the market's sentiment repair.
First of all, from a policy perspective, the pace of policies to stabilize the economy in the past week has significantly exceeded market expectations, but the weak domestic demand is still continuing, and more vigorous policies are needed to reverse the downward trend. Secondly, from the perspective of the market, the global high-level assets have been sharply adjusted at the same time in the near future, reflecting the deterioration of the overall global risk appetite. Finally, from the perspective of the gradual clarification of the three major signals, the policy signal and the external signal have marginally improved, and the pessimism is expected to be repaired. China Merchants Securities: Three factors affected the market in August
The slope of economic recovery still needs to be further improved, and there are still internal divisions. The production side has slowed down, but it still achieves a high growth rate, and the output of some high-tech products has a high growth rate. On the price side, most industries are still showing a downward trend, and the volume and price are at a high growth rate, mainly concentrated in the fields of nonferrous metals, oil and gas exploitation, chemical fiber, and hydropower. The export chain continued to improve against the background of a low base and exceeded market expectations, among which the exports of integrated circuits, general equipment, home appliances, automobiles, medical devices, and agricultural products achieved a high growth rate. The consumption sector is relatively weak, and the growth rate of social zero has weakened significantly, among which the growth rate of catering is better than that of commodities, and the growth rate of essential consumption is better than that of optional consumption.
The main influencing factors of industry allocation in August are expected to be concentrated in the following three aspects: first, the industry that is in the intensive performance disclosure period in the near future and reports better performance can often achieve excess returns in July and August; Second, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have risen recently, which is expected to have a marginal impact on the industry allocation in August; Third, at the policy level, the recent important meeting will also provide some clues for the industry allocation in August.
Combined with multiple dimensions such as mesoscopic prosperity, profitability, chip distribution, valuation, transaction, cycle stage and track value, it is recommended to pay attention to electronics (semiconductors, consumer electronics), food and beverage (liquor, food processing), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (aquaculture), public utilities (electric power), medicine and biology (medical devices, chemical pharmaceuticals) and other subdivisions. 1. Food and beverages
The bottom signal is obvious
The food and beverage sector is a must-choose consumption attribute, the demand at the bottom of the cycle is relatively stable, the overall resilience of the plate is strong, and it has the ability to pass through the cycle. Some industry insiders pointed out that in the second quarter, the bottom signal of fund holdings and the current valuation of the sector is obvious, and it can be actively deployed at this stage.
From the perspective of the liquor industry, An Yaze, an analyst at China Securities Securities, believes that the current consumption environment is still in a weak state, the expansion of new brands is limited, and the market share of leading enterprises continues to expand. In the second quarter, the company's dynamic sales fell significantly from the previous quarter, although the channel inventory has increased, it is still controllable as a whole, and the consumption environment is expected to be more stable in the third quarter. Wine companies attach great importance to strengthening shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates, and as stock prices fall, the dividend yield of some companies has reached 4% or even higher, and the allocation value is highlighted.
In the medium and long term, the current growth rate is not the most important, in contrast, the strategic determination and execution of the enterprise are more important. Only by maintaining a benign and healthy channel quality can the industry return to the upward cycle and be more resilient to growth. Lv Chang, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said that looking forward to the second half of 2024, combined with the potential dividend level and medium and long-term structural space, the head company has cost-effective and long-term investment value. It is recommended to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Tribute Liquor, Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, and Gujing Tribute Liquor.
In the mass goods industry, Lv Chang expects that mass goods will continue the trend of revenue pressure and slight improvement in profitability, and demand will be the main contradiction in the second half of the year, focusing on the festival effect of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. In the context of slow recovery of demand, we should focus on bottom-up stock selection, one is the head companies with low valuations and the ability to pay dividends; The first category is stocks with good growth or large room for improvement and reasonable valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Beer, Yili Shares, Shuanghui Development, Jinzai Food, Anjing Food, and Yanjin Shop.
A selection of potential stocks
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Yingjiagong Liquor (603198) Wuliangye (000858) Tsingtao Beer (600600) Yili (600887)
2. Breeding
Valuations are expected to be repaired
Affected by weak summer consumption, pig prices may fluctuate in the short term, but they are expected to rise gradually in the medium term, and the breeding industry will usher in a good pattern of high pig prices and rising profits. Li Miao, an analyst at Haitong Securities, pointed out that the African swine fever epidemic in the fourth quarter of last year, coupled with the continuous decline in the number of sows that could reproduce 10 months ago in each month of this year, all point to the fact that pig prices will continue to rise in the third quarter of this year, and the high point of pig prices is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to focus on the pig breeding sector. With the improvement of pig prices, the performance of major breeding companies in the first half of the year has also improved, and the reported profits of various companies are worth paying attention to.
From the perspective of the industry, the overall demand is already at the bottom, and it is expected to gradually improve from August to September. Cheng Xiaodong, an analyst at Pacific Securities, pointed out that on the supply side, affected by the de-production capacity in the early stage, the theoretical slaughter volume of fattening pigs in the third quarter decreased marginally month by month, and the contraction trend of the supply side continued. And the current high temperature and heavy rain and other abnormal weather frequently, the enthusiasm of the second breeding or affected, or exacerbated the tight pattern of supply and demand, it is expected that pig prices in the short term or strong shocks, the medium-term upward trend has not changed.
As pig prices continue to rise, the industry is generally optimistic about the market opportunities in the sector. Li Xiaoyuan, an analyst at Everbright Securities, pointed out that the current downward space is expected to be limited, and the sector has strong realistic earnings as support, in July and August fat pig supply contraction and peak season resonance push, the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair, still optimistic about the pig breeding sector. It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality enterprises with high cashing degree and obvious cost improvement, such as Muyuan shares, Wen's shares, Shennong Group, Huatong shares, and superstar agriculture and animal husbandry. In addition, the current valuation of the white feather broiler sector is extremely low, and the third quarter will enter the peak consumption of white chickens in the year, and the rise in chicken prices is expected to continue to drive the active performance of the sector.
A selection of potential stocks
Changguang Huaxin (688048) Weir Co., Ltd. (603501) Jingwei Hengrun (688326) Huayang Group (002906) Desay SV (002920)
Editor|Wen Wan
Calibration|Yuan Gang
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