On July 31, the Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau of Zhengzhou City, Henan Province announced that after the study of the municipal government, the housing security department will no longer guide the sales price of newly built commercial housing, and the development enterprises will sell according to their own pricing and go through the procedures for the pre-sale (sale) of commercial housing (filing).
To put it simply, the government will no longer intervene in the rise and fall of housing prices, and the future trend of housing prices will be completely left to the market.
As soon as this policy was released, it immediately aroused heated discussions in the real estate circle.
Hot discussion one, the government does not care about housing prices, whether housing prices will plummet
Previously, the state introduced many policies to stimulate the recovery of real estate, but the effect was not good. The real estate market is still in a half-dead state.
This time, the state has liberalized housing price control, and it can be said that the policy tools for real estate regulation and control have bottomed out.
In fact, at this time, the state is helpless to relax the control of housing prices, and it is no longer feasible to rely on policies alone to support housing prices.
Blindly guaranteeing housing prices, the final result is that everyone is finished together.
This time the housing prices are fully liberalized, and some developers will definitely choose "price reduction promotion", and housing prices may experience violent fluctuations in a short period of time.
In fact, the price of the second-hand housing market has already begun to fall sharply. Recently, house prices have fallen by half in many places.
Hot topic two, where is the bottom of housing prices?
Since the real estate industry has entered a downward channel, many people are asking the question, that is, where is the bottom of this round of real estate?
First of all, we need to make it clear that this real estate correction cycle will be very long, just like the cycle of house price growth in the past few decades. Now no one knows where this bottom is?
This real estate decline cycle may be three or five years, or it may be more than ten years, or even decades.
There are two big data that determine that it is impossible for the real estate industry to return to the "era of national speculation" in the future.
First, the mainland's population continues to decline; Second, the current stock of housing in the mainland is already astronomical;
The real estate industry has entered the "era of surplus houses", and the buyer's market will be the norm in the real estate market in the future.
As for where the bottom of real estate is, it is different in different regions and different houses.
One thing is clear: the house is still everyone's most important asset, and the real estate industry is still an important industry, but it is no longer a pillar industry.
In the era of rising housing prices, first- and second-tier cities led the rise in third- and fourth-tier cities. When housing prices fall, third- and fourth-tier cities will lead the decline in first- and second-tier cities. Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities will fall faster than those in first- and second-tier cities, and the time to reach the bottom will also be faster than in first- and second-tier cities.
The reason is simple, the financial attributes of houses in first- and second-tier cities are higher than those in third- and fourth-tier cities.
When the house in the third and fourth tier cities returns to the residential value, the house price will be counted to the end.
However, the financial attributes of houses in first- and second-tier cities are always the most important, and housing prices will not appear at the bottom in the strict sense.
Hot discussion three, when to buy a house and when?
After house prices started to fall, everyone didn't seem to be in a hurry to buy a house. Now, on the contrary, developers and second-hand landlords are starting to sell their homes in a hurry.
Now the trend of housing prices can be summed up in one word: "chaos".
Now the housing prices in each place have entered the era of chaos, not to mention the same city, even the price of houses in the same community will be "very different".
Many people who are in dire need of a buyer have become overwhelmed when they see the "chaos" in the real estate market right now.
On the one hand, I am worried that I will buy an unfinished building, and on the other hand, I am worried that I will lose money.
In fact, for people who really need to buy a house, the house price can refer to the government purchase price in various places.
Now local governments have introduced "collection and storage plans" for houses.
The price of the state's storage house is to reserve 5% of the profit for the developer, but the developer must ensure the quality of the project.
The country's "storage price" is basically the "bottom price" of the house in the next three to five years.
The country's "harvest price" is a huge "group purchase price".
If the price of a project is already approaching this price, people who need to buy a house can buy it.
Hot discussion four, whether the house still has investment value, and whether people who have multiple suites in their hands now want to "cut their flesh and leave"
In fact, the largest inventory in the real estate market is not in the hands of developers, but in the hands of landlords.
In recent years, many real estate companies have withdrawn from the real estate industry, and most of the inventory in the hands of developers is pre-epidemic inventory.
After several years of slow digestion, it has almost come out. This is one of the reasons why the country dares to liberalize housing prices.
In the future, the inventory in the hands of landlords across the country will face huge market pressure.
Many people who have multiple homes need to think carefully about their asset allocation.
In the current economic environment, the house still has a certain investment value, but it must be a good house.
This is also one of the reasons for the recent explosion of the national luxury housing market, and many wealthy people are adjusting their asset allocation.
The real estate market will enter a polarized extreme market in the future, and real estate companies will also experience the test of survival of the fittest.
People who have more than one house in their hands, whether they "cut their meat and leave", should focus on the cost of holding their own houses.
If you think that the value of the house in your hand is highly recognized by the market, and you can withstand this round of adjustment, you don't need to worry.
If the market recognition of the value of the house in your hand is not high, you should stop the loss as soon as possible.
The only criterion for the recognition of the market value of a house is the volume and price changes of houses sold in your neighborhood in the second-hand housing market. If there are a lot of houses sold in your neighborhood during this time, and the house price has fallen sharply, it is best to choose to leave early. After all, every "cut price" will affect the market price of your house in the future.