Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, from the close, although the ChiNext fell greatly, but the overall performance of A-shares is stable, but compared with last night's U.S. stocks, A-shares are obviously relatively weak and normal. Many people have doubts about what I call the "seesaw of the Sino-US stock market", because many investors' trading views are limited to A-shares, and to understand the direction of global capital flows, it must be viewed from a global perspective.
Finance never sleeps, the world's largest and most complex market, not U.S. stocks, not A-shares, is the foreign exchange market, the global foreign exchange market daily turnover of up to 7.5 trillion US dollars, more than the sum of the daily trading volume of all stock markets, A shares are now about 100 billion US dollars per day, US stocks are also 300 billion US dollars. Therefore, understanding the logic of the foreign exchange market is the basis for understanding the logic of the stock market.
To understand the currency market, let's start with the case of the continuous rise in the yen exchange rate since July 11, and during May and June, the yen continued to fall despite the Bank of Japan's continuous signals to tighten interest rate hikes. Okay, so the question is, why did the yen fall in May and June? Why did the yen rise again in July? One explanation is that there is a large amount of speculative arbitrage in yen exchange rate trading today, with global investors borrowing yen, exchanging it for dollars, and then investing in U.S. technology stocks. There must be complex derivatives and tortuous trading paths, but the end result is that investors borrow yen to buy United States technology stocks, because the yen interest rate is low, and the market value of the US technology stock market is huge, and a lot of money is needed to support.
It can be seen that among the seven giants of the US stock market, there are 5 companies with a market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, only Amazon and Tesla are slightly behind in market value, and the total market value of the seven giants exceeds 15 trillion US dollars. Such a large market capitalization is bound to have a siphon effect on global liquidity. Therefore, the depreciation of the yen in May and June is actually borrowing the yen to buy the Big Seven US stocks, and the appreciation of the yen in July means that investors sell the Big Seven and repay the debts of the yen. So, in the end, the fall of the NASDAQ caused the yen to rise.
In the same way, among the Big Seven's more than $15 trillion market capitalization, are there any Chinese investors? Both the yen and the renminbi have low interest rates, which should be the same trend, although China has cross-border capital controls, but cross-border, investors who borrow yuan to buy U.S. stocks must exist, so there must be, after all, in a large foreign exchange market with a turnover of 7.5 trillion US dollars, anything is possible. So, this mobility seesaw must be there. Looking back, do you see if the renminbi has appreciated like the yen recently? If the Fed cuts interest rates and the RMB appreciates in September, do you think the reversal of A-shares will be far away?
Today there is a blockbuster document: the "Five-Year Action Plan for the In-depth Implementation of the People-oriented New Urbanization Strategy". From the perspective of the property market, it is to attract 200 million farmers to settle down in the city to buy a house, and there are bright spots. Migrant workers entering the city, in essence, is the process of peasants becoming citizens, which is in line with the process of urbanization, and the household registration system hinders this economic trend, and there are no more than five households in the world that implement the household registration system, so the new type of urbanization should start from the reform of the household registration system.
As I said before, if you want farmers to go to the city to buy a house, can you afford it? At the moment, we will definitely not be able to afford it, but if some farmers increase their income through new urbanization and buy a house in the city, and the other part can get government affordable housing and live in a house in the city through contribution points (points), then everyone can still be happy in the end. The property market has taken over, farmers can go to the city to enjoy modern life, and local finance also has land revenue to support infrastructure construction. Therefore, the logic is smooth, but the key depends on the landing.
Finally, there are two documents worth paying attention to: one is industrial robots, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Industrial Robot Industry Standard Conditions (2024 Edition)" and the "Industrial Robot Industry Standard Conditions Management Implementation Measures (2024 Edition)"; The other is the low-altitude economy, the Ministry of Commerce's "On Optimizing and Adjusting the Export Control Measures for UAVs".
For industrial robots, the mainland is a big manufacturing country, industrial robots and CNC machine tools are a strong foundation for the mainland manufacturing industry, industrial robots in addition to controllers, CNC machine tools in addition to CNC systems, other aspects of the mainland's technical strength is very strong, so, the last three days of industrial robots to strengthen in expected, I have been optimistic about industrial robots.
For the low-altitude economy, in fact, I have always been optimistic about UAV exports, rather than domestic sales, to tell the truth, I suspect that manned electric aircraft around the country is a bit "formalized", in fact, in 2024, domestic UAV flights will be reduced, because from January 2024, UAVs will take off to report, and there will even be a lot of public security shoot-down UAVs. As for exports, mainland UAVs have always had advantages, and this time two items have been adjusted: one is the original restriction on exports, such as high-precision components such as laser infrared, which are allowed to be exported, and the other is that the export of UAVs used for illegal purposes has been restricted. In general, it is good for UAV exports, but the degree of benefit is limited.
Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]