#头条首发大赛#
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the completion of the reunification of the motherland has been the long-cherished wish of hundreds of millions of people and millions of PLA commanders and fighters in the past few decades, and the recovery of Taiwan not only concerns national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but is also a phased goal for the Chinese nation to complete its great rejuvenation, which can greatly boost national self-confidence. Although China's national strength has improved, it is still the five permanent members and the world's second largest economy, but it is also the only one of the five permanent members that has not completed national reunification, so if Taiwan is not recovered, a thorn in the hearts of the Chinese cannot be removed.
However, over the past few years, under the fanning of the flames by the United States and the demagogic brainwashing of the "Taiwan independence" forces, the hope for peaceful reunification between the two sides of the strait has become more and more diminished, and we have to use force to recover Taiwan if necessary. However, the complex environment in the Taiwan Strait and the international environment that affect the whole body are also doomed to military reunification to be a matter of great prudence, not only to quickly recover Taiwan, but also to minimize the international impact and minimize civilian casualties.
In this case, the timing of the choice of military reunification is very important, and here it is necessary to analyze it from the macro and detailed months. Under what circumstances does the mainland have the highest success rate and the lowest risk in recovering Taiwan? The answer must be that China has become the world's largest power, the People's Liberation Army is so strong that the United States and Japan do not dare to come up with the idea of "sending troops to defend Taiwan", and China's comprehensive national strength is strong, and the West not only does not dare to sanction China, but is worried about being sanctioned by China. Of course, this ideal opportunity for military reunification is difficult to appear, because if China were strong to this extent, the US military would have been frightened to withdraw from the Asia-Pacific region, and Taiwan would have cried and shouted for its return.
Another perfect time to regain Taiwan is when there is civil strife in the United States and the whole country is left to take care of itself. For example, in this year's United States presidential election, Trump, who has experienced assassination but is not dead, has long been regarded as a "true son of heaven" by MAGA, if Trump finally loses bizarrely to the Democratic presidential candidate, then MAGA will definitely determine that the Democratic Party has done tricks on the ballot this time, this time Trump's supporters will not only occupy the Capitol, but also stage a "White House fall". At that time, the operation of the United States Government will fail, the "Taiwan independence" forces will lose their backing and backbone, and military reunification will naturally come into being.
If these things do not happen at the macro level, and the PLA needs to formulate a plan for military reunification step by step, when is the most suitable time of year for military reunification? In response to this problem, not only the PLA is considering, other forces are also speculating, such as the Center for Intelligence and Security Research of the Federal Defense University in Munich, Germany, believes that the PLA will recover Taiwan during the Lunar New Year, because the sea surface in the Taiwan Strait is relatively calm at that time, and around the Lunar New Year, the flow of Chinese population is very large, and it is easy to cover up the movement of troops.
Many retired military officers in Taiwan believe that the best time for the PLA to land is July or August, because at that time the wind direction in the Taiwan Strait is from west to east, and the tailwind can bring great help to the PLA's landing operation. If it is delayed until after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the northeast monsoon will blow in the Taiwan Strait, and the PLA will need to go against the wind when it lands, and the sea surface will be very stormy.
So which time period should the PLA choose to land? First of all, from the perspective of historical experience, in 1661, the national hero Zheng Chenggong set out in March, arrived at Luermen Port in Taiwan in April, and fought until January 1662 to make the Netherlands colonists surrender.
In 1683, Shi Lang led a fleet in June, and on July 13, Shi Lang led his army to land in Taiwan.
However, the experience of these two successful reconquests of Taiwan does not have much reference value for today's PLA, because when Zheng Chenggong recovered Taiwan, the main battlefield was concentrated on siege battles, and fierce naval battles and landing battles did not break out. When Shi Lang led the army to recover Taiwan, he first annihilated Taiwan's sailors at sea, and then landed without much effort.
The most difficult stage for the PLA to recover Taiwan is concentrated in the landing stage; for so many years, Taiwan's armed forces have been studying the "decisive beachhead." It can be said that whether or not the PLA can successfully land will directly determine whether or not military reunification will succeed.
According to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan has made a new assessment of the PLA's capabilities: the PLA is now fully capable of landing on Taiwan within a week.
This also determines that the process of the PLA's recovery of Taiwan will not be like Zheng Chenggong and Shi Lang's recovery of Taiwan, which will first fight for a period of time on Taiwan's outer islands, but will be similar to the Normandy landings and Inchon landings, completing the landing in a relatively short period of time, rapidly expanding the results of the battle before the enemy's counterattack forces are completed, and not giving external forces the opportunity to organize troops to intervene.
However, the landing battle is the most complex and unpredictable of all combat modes, even if it is as strong as the US military, which had the advantage in the Pacific theater that year, still paid the price of more than 70,000 casualties in the landing battle of Okinawa, and even shook the determination of the United States to land in Japan and used atomic bombs instead.
Robert · Ellis, a naval oceanographer in the United States, once said: The victory or defeat of a landing operation depends not only on who has the most expensive and advanced weapons and equipment, but also on who has the natural advantage gained by having a full understanding of the marine environment.
The implementation of landing operations is the most affected by the natural environment among all combat modes, and wind, waves, and tides are all factors that must be taken into account.
Although the width of the Taiwan Strait is not large, due to the influence of special geographical phenomena, the hydrological and meteorological conditions of the entire Taiwan Strait show diversity changes with the seasons, which has a huge impact on the landing operation.
Here is a general introduction to the monsoon situation in the Xiatai Strait, there are four periods of the year that are greatly affected by the monsoon, namely the northeast monsoon period (late October to mid-March of the following year), when the sea surface often has strong winds of 4 to 6 degrees and wave heights of 2-3 meters.
This is followed by the "southwest monsoon season" from early May to mid-September, but the winds are weak, averaging below level 3.
Finally, there are two monsoon transition periods, namely late March to late April and late September to late October, which are variable in wind direction and accompanied by large waves, with category 5 waves accounting for 17%.
If we only refer to the influence of the monsoon, the most suitable time period for the PLA to land is the period from May to mid-September, and the Taiwan Strait is basically calm.
However, the Taiwan Strait not only has monsoons, but is also patronized by typhoons from time to time, and many PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait have been forced to cancel or postpone because of typhoons. According to historical statistical records, from 1991 to 2020, the Taiwan Strait had the highest chance of typhoons in July, August, and September each year, with 97 typhoons in July, 87 in September, and 30 in October.
Another key factor affecting the success of the landing operation was the high tide and the ebb tide, and the reason why the Kinmen Battle was lost that year was that the PLA did not have a good grasp of the law of high tide and low tide at that time, resulting in the first batch of landing ships running aground because of the low tide, and the second batch of landing troops could not provide timely support.
According to Taiwan's record of rising and falling tides in the past 20 years, the average tide level from June to October is relatively high every year, which is conducive to the landing force to carry out landing. In addition to considering the high tide, it is also necessary to consider the wind and wave conditions at high tide, the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish, and the landing ship will be more affected, and it may even cause the soldier to get seasick. The average wave height in the Taiwan Strait from April to August is low, almost half of them are small waves less than 0.6 meters, and combined with the tide level, June, July and August are the most suitable for landfall.
And this period coincides with the "southwest monsoon season", which allows the PLA landing fleet to sail with the wind, and June is the golden period, because the probability of typhoons during this period is relatively low, and July and August are the typhoon season. Moreover, the Taiwan military also believes that July and August are the most likely days for the PLA to launch a landing, and that time will definitely be a key prevention, so June will be the golden period for recovering Taiwan every year, at least in terms of time and time in favor of the PLA.
The most important thing that the PLA should avoid is September and October, which is the season of high incidence of typhoons, and even if there is no typhoon, it is still in the monsoon transition period, and the entire Taiwan Strait is full of wind and waves. In addition, the Battle of Kinmen of that year also took place in October.
Of course, the weather cannot follow the laws of history forever, Cao Cao attacked Jiangdong that year, thinking that there would be no east wind, so he tied the ships together with iron chains, but he did not expect the east wind to blow. When Shi Lang recovered Taiwan, there was also a sudden change in weather, and the wind direction suddenly turned in favor of Shi Lang's sailors, so that Taiwan's sailors were forced to fight against the wind, and finally Shi Lang's sailors won a complete victory.
The time of day is only one of the factors that determine the outcome of the war, the ancients once said: the time is not as good as the location, the location is not as good as the people. In fact, in the process of military reunification, the PLA's biggest enemies are not those strawberry soldiers who are working for "Taiwan independence," but the combined arms of the United States and the Japan; compared with the United States and Japan, which need to travel thousands of miles from their homeland to the Taiwan Strait, the PLA is fighting at home, and it is only less than 200 kilometers away from the Taiwan coastline, and it has a geographical advantage.
In terms of people, the United States and Japan can't compare with China, don't look at Japan shouting all day long "Taiwan something is Japan something", but at the critical moment, Japan still have to look at the face of the United States, as long as the United States does not make a move, Japan will never dare to fight alone with China, and Japan shouts "Taiwan something is Japan something", followed by a sentence, that is, "on behalf of the US-Japan alliance", Japan just want to pull United States into the water, Japan has been calculating United States.
In United States the past few years, the whole society has been seriously antagonized because of party disputes, the rednecks hate illegal immigrants, and the White Left Virgin criticizes the cruelty of the right wing all day long. When it comes to a critical moment, how many United States GIs are willing to die for an island thousands of kilometers away that has nothing to do with them?
On the other hand, on the Chinese side, the recovery of Taiwan is what everyone wants, and when it really comes to use force to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, there will basically be no opposition voice, and the "Taiwan independence" forces have been given countless opportunities in recent years. Moreover, the vast majority of countries in the world recognize that "Taiwan is a part of China," and the People's Liberation Army's recovery of Taiwan is China's internal affair; if the United States and Japan send troops to interfere, it will be a division without a name, and not many countries will stand on the side of the United States and Japan, and the actions of the US and Japanese governments are to add to the unwarranted calamity of their own people.
Even if United States is the most powerful country in the world, if it wants to break out into a military conflict with China in the absence of time, place, and people, the chances of victory will still be very slim. In the 50s of the last century, the Volunteer Army was able to prevent the United States from burning the war to the Yalu River, and now the PLA is still capable of preventing United States from interfering in China's internal affairs.