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I talked to everyone about interest rate cuts before, and the analysis of the loan interest rate will be a little more, after all, this is a real cost concession for all home buyers (the interest rate reduction of existing housing loans is later than that of current home buyers).
However, in the first two days, the one-year and five-year LPR fell by 10bp again, which may be that everyone is used to it, and there is not much discussion, but the lowered deposit interest rate has caused a lot of dissatisfaction.
To put it bluntly, the wallet is still tighter!
1丨The logic of deposit interest rate cuts
Early this morning, the six major banks unanimously announced the reduction of deposit interest rates:
The deposit interest rate has been "outrageously" low, with a one-year yield of only 1.35%/1.38%, and the five-year yield has officially fallen below 12, and the six major banks have given a yield of 1.80%.
The account is not counted, and everyone presses the calculator to come out.
The reduction in the deposit interest rate has not been a day or two, and the yield has been nearly halved compared with the fixed deposit two years ago.
This time it was also the fastest response of the six major banks to the loan interest rate cut, and in just three days, they quickly lowered the deposit rate.
The logic of deposit interest rate cuts is not difficult to understand:
First, banks that are accustomed to lying down and eating "interest differentials" are in a hurry to start a defensive war.
Taking ICBC as an example, in the first quarter of 2024, its interest income will "take a big dive".
In Q1 2024, ICBC's interest income will be 0.36 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%, compared with the growth rate of 11.89% in the same period in 2023.
The same is true for several other state-owned banks. In the past year, the growth rate of interest income of Agricultural Bank of China has fallen by nearly 1%, Bank of China has fallen by nearly 10%, interest by China Construction Bank has fallen by nearly 2%, and Bank of Communications has fallen by nearly 8%.
This is the case for state-owned banks, and even more so for private banks.
The hastily declining interest income has made banks that are accustomed to dividends begin to be anxious, and only by continuously reducing the interest rate on deposits can they continue to generate income by eating the "interest differential".
But to be honest, taking ICBC's 6.4% growth rate in Q1 this year as an example, although this level is "cut in half" compared with itself a year ago, it is still relatively optimistic compared to GDP, CPI, and no matter how bad it is compared with its own income growth.
Second, guide economic growth expectations.
The trend of deposit interest rates from 1990 to 2012 was released first, and although there were repeated sideways interest rate hikes in the process, the momentum of interest rate cuts could not be stopped.
Regardless of whether it is a loan or a deposit interest rate, its level is completely in line with the economic growth of the same period, GDP is running fast, and the demand for funds is becoming more and more active.
The fact that interest rates on loans and deposits have hit new lows is also a warning to us to a certain extent that we should appropriately lower our expectations for economic growth.
Second, the interest rate cut is far from over
As a conventional financial rescue method, as long as the property market is unstable and the transaction volume is sluggish, the interest rate cut will continue.
In June, the property market sales data has risen, but it is still sluggish, and the impact of the 517 policy is fading out of the market, and the transactions in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have begun to be deflated again. Therefore, interest rate cuts will continue to be made.
Second, interest rate cuts are also a regular means of stimulating consumption.
There is not much analysis of consumption data, as long as everyone understands that in the final analysis, the interest rate cut is to "expel the money stored in the bank" to the liquid market, so that residents can consume and take loans.
This round of 10BP adjustment is only a slight interest rate cut, and when the United States opens the interest rate cut channel, we still have space, otherwise the manufacturing industry and exports will face problems.
Of course, a further rate cut will be tantamount to a further cut in the deposit rate, and we are expected to see a lower rate than the five-year rate of 1.80% this year.
Three丨Spend your days in a stable manner and keep your cash flow
This deposit interest reduction has made everyone complain, in fact, there are too few channels on the market to adapt to ordinary people's investment.
Financial management, for the vast majority of people, in fact, put the money in the bank to eat interest, the old folks have saved half a lifetime of money, put it in the bank in turn, neither to catch up with the dividend growth of the property market, nor to enter the stock market, bond market boldness.
Now that the deposit interest rate has been falling, retail investors basically can't find a fixed deposit of more than 13 years, and every time they go to renew their deposits, they can't be happy when they look at the deposit interest rate that is falling year by year.
If you can still buy a large amount of certificates of deposit in front of you, you might as well take advantage of the fact that the commercial banks have not yet fully adjusted their positions to get a few more certificates of deposit with high interest rates, and perhaps the high interest rates you see now will not be found on the market in three to five days.
For friends who want to buy a house, after several interest rate cuts, the interest rate of buying a house is too fragrant now, and you can get a 30-year mortgage in your early 103s, which is indeed a good time to buy a house and replace it, compared with the interest rate of 1566 in 21 years, the interest cost has been saved by nearly half.
Of course, interest rates must have a slight impact on the choice of property, and a good area and a high-quality house are always prerequisites. Even if you predict that the interest rate on the loan will fall in the future, you still firmly choose a house that must be a good asset.
In the past, it was always emphasized to choose the value sector of high-energy cities, but this round of property market adjustment period is accompanied by product iteration.
In addition to the location, education, industry, etc. in the inherent value cognition, we should also pay attention to the competitiveness of the real estate itself, whether the house type is enough to resist the attack, whether the housing rate is outstanding enough, whether the quality is online enough, etc. This also means that there are not many options in the market for high-quality properties.
If you are blind to the investment channels in front of you and do not have the courage to enter the property market, it is better to put your cash in a reliable bank or spend it to improve yourself and enjoy life.
Keeping cash flow is the only way to better navigate the cycle. If you don't make mistakes, you're already better than many people.